2025 Budget: a forced passage under high tension

The National Assembly is about to experience an electrifying week. This Monday, February 3, François Bayrou will trigger Article 49.3 to adopt the state budget, closely followed by that of social security.

François Bayrou seems hell-bent on hastening his own political shipwreck. Barely appointed and he's already unveiling the heavy artillery: a rapid-fire 49.3 to impose a 2025 budget that is already drawing flak from all sides. Amidst an insurgency by the oppositions, scathing criticisms, and a yawning deficit, the Prime Minister is stubbornly pushing his project through at any cost. What if this obstinacy is a sign of his political demise?

2025 Budget: a forced passage under high tension

The National Assembly is set for an electrifying week. This Monday, February 3, François Bayrou will trigger Article 49.3 to adopt the state budget, closely followed by that of social security. A maneuver that is sure to provoke a general outcry in a France that is already reeling from a record spike in the unemployment rate.

La France Insoumise has already tabled a motion of no confidence, with the ecologists and communists rallying to it, while the socialists still seem to be wavering.

The National Rally, on the other hand, is playing the suspense card. "He must pack his bags!" quips Tony Leprêtre on X.

But what is most worrying are the figures. Initially estimated at a deficit of 16 billion euros, the social security budget could end up plunging to 23 billion, or even 30 in case of failure.

In an attempt to save face, the government is proposing:

This is enough to give those who fear an increase in the tax burden a cold sweat.

Jean-Louis thus quotes Nicolas Beytout:

"It's a very bad budget. Everyone who has looked into it says so!"

Bayrou facing an opposition lying in wait

If Bayrou thought he was embarking on an easy billiards game, he risks finding himself facing an enraged opposition. On the right, Laurent Wauquiez is blowing hot and cold. He claims to be "firmly opposed to tax increases" and is still waiting for a gesture from the government on security and immigration.

Among the Republicans, support is determined "text by text," leaving Bayrou to navigate blindly.

The RN, for its part, senses the smell of blood and is already preparing its offensive. Jean-Philippe Tanguy claims that the budget is "worse than having no budget at all" and advocates for a motion of no confidence. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella will have the final say, but the party is already anticipating an inevitable dissolution. An eventuality that would serve their interests well.

On the left, the confusion is just as palpable. LFI describes it as a "right-wing budget," which makes William Thay smile:

"What would a left-wing budget even be when France already taxes half of its national wealth?"

A statement that speaks volumes about the quagmire into which Bayrou has sunk.

The French economy at an impasse?

By banking on a rapid adoption of the 20205 budget, Bayrou hopes to avoid stagnation. But the gamble is a risky one. In addition to a staggering deficit, the French economy is struggling to regain its momentum. Europe is watching from a distance as the national budget situation edges closer to an electric shock.

If the government's aim was to reassure, it has failed. The new day of solidarity, intended to finance aid for senior citizens, is raising eyebrows even within the majority ranks. Working seven more hours per year without remuneration? An idea that even Bayrou himself eventually dismissed. But will that be enough to quell tensions?

As the government tries to keep up a good appearance, distrust is mounting. Between rising taxes, precarious public finances, and a toxic political climate, Bayrou is treading on hot coals. The opposition is waiting for one thing only: to see him stumble.

It comes as no surprise that Bayrou is encountering a wall. His forced passage with the 49.3, coupled with widespread dissent, puts him in a weak position. Wasn't his appointment last December already a sign of the collapse of the Republic?

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