BTC 和 ETH 价格预测凸显 2025 年看涨情景

Steno Research 表示，2025 年对于 BTC 和 ETH 来说将是不平凡的一年，预测表明市场存在增长的沃土。

Cryptocurrency price forecasts for 2025 are generally optimistic, with some indicators suggesting the possibility of a particularly strong year for BTC, ETH, and the altcoin market as a whole.

对 2025 年加密货币价格的预测普遍乐观，一些指标表明 BTC、ETH 和整个山寨币市场可能会迎来特别强劲的一年。

Steno Research highlights the potential for BTC to reach new all-time highs in the upcoming months, targeting a price of $150,000 as the peak of the bull market.

Steno Research 强调 BTC 在未来几个月内有可能创下历史新高，目标价格为 15 万美元，作为牛市的顶峰。

Meanwhile, ETH is also expected to experience significant growth, with Steno's analysis indicating a price range of $8,000, which would be a substantial increase from its current all-time highs.

与此同时，ETH 预计也将经历显着增长，Steno 的分析表明价格范围为 8,000 美元，这将比当前的历史高点大幅上涨。

According to Steno, these bullish price forecasts are supported by a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, which is expected to continue in 2025.

Steno 表示，这些看涨的价格预测得到了加密货币有利的监管环境的支持，预计这种情况将在 2025 年持续下去。

The macroeconomic outlook also appears positive, with interest rates decreasing and liquidity improving in the coming year.

宏观经济前景也显得乐观，明年利率下降，流动性改善。

Furthermore, institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies is likely to expand, evidenced by the positive inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs, which are expected to reach $48 billion and $28.5 billion, respectively.

此外，机构对加密货币的采用可能会扩大，现货 BTC 和 ETH ETF 的资金正流入就证明了这一点，预计这两个资金将分别达到 480 亿美元和 285 亿美元。

Notably, 2025 could be a historically significant year for the crypto market, considering the strong performance observed in the years following Bitcoin's halving.

值得注意的是，考虑到比特币减半后几年的强劲表现，2025 年可能是加密市场具有历史意义的一年。

Typically, these years experience high bull quarters with excellent returns on both BTC and ETH.

通常，这些年会经历高牛市，BTC 和 ETH 的回报率都很高。

For instance, in 2017, which came a year after the 2016 halving, BTC and ETH both enjoyed four bull quarters of exceptional performance.

例如，2016 年减半一年后的 2017 年，BTC 和 ETH 都经历了四个牛市的出色表现。

Similarly, 2021, following the 2020 halving, was particularly bullish, with BTC recording three positive quarters out of four and ETH replicating the four-of-a-kind bull market quarters.

同样，2020 年减半之后的 2021 年尤其看涨，BTC 在四个季度中录得三个积极季度，而 ETH 则复制了四个季度的牛市季度。

Based on this historical trend, the price forecasts for 2025, especially in the first quarter (Q1), are optimistic, and it remains to be seen whether history will indeed repeat itself this time.

基于这一历史趋势，对2025年，尤其是第一季度（Q1）的价格预测是乐观的，这次历史是否真的会重演还有待观察。

An analysis of BTC derivatives also suggests positive price forecasts in the short term, according to Deribit Insights.

Deribit Insights 表示，对 BTC 衍生品的分析也表明短期内价格预测乐观。

Since December 28, BTC has faced difficulty in maintaining the strong support at $95,000, and the demand for leverage has decreased.

12月28日以来，BTC难以维持95000美元强支撑，杠杆需求有所减少。

The bull experienced liquidations of $470 million in the following days, reaching the local low of $91,500 before bouncing back.

接下来的几天里，多头经历了 4.7 亿美元的清算，在反弹之前触及 91,500 美元的局部低点。

Meanwhile, the bears also show reduced strength, and a potential downside on the price of Bitcoin now seems limited.

与此同时，空头的力量也有所减弱，比特币价格的潜在下行空间现在似乎有限。

The open interest on BTC, which measures the total number of contracts on all BTC futures markets, suggests a bullish overall picture even with declining prices.

比特币的未平仓合约衡量的是所有比特币期货市场上的合约总数，表明即使价格下跌，整体情况仍看涨。

From the top of December 20, 2024, this metric has fallen to mark the lowest level since November 4, 2024, while still maintaining an excellent chart structure.

从2024年12月20日的顶部开始，该指标已跌至2024年11月4日以来的最低水平，但仍保持出色的图表结构。

Furthermore, the 1-month BTC futures premium, generally traded between 5% and 10% in a neutral scenario, is currently at 15%.

此外，在中性情况下，1 个月的 BTC 期货溢价通常在 5% 至 10% 之间交易，目前为 15%。

This marks the highest premium of the last two weeks, demonstrating the continued conviction of the bull despite the uncertainty over prices.

这标志着过去两周的最高溢价，表明尽管价格存在不确定性，但看涨者的持续信念。

Even the funding rate, or the financing rate of exchanges that regulates the leverage imbalance, suggests positive forecasts for the beginning of the new year.

即使是融资利率，或者调节杠杆失衡的交易所融资利率，也表明了对新年伊始的积极预测。

In neutral markets, the long (buyers) generally pay a monthly fee from 0.4% to 1.8%, while higher rates indicate a growing bull sentiment.

在中性市场中，多头（买家）通常每月支付 0.4% 至 1.8% 的费用，而较高的利率表明看涨情绪不断增强。

The current monthly funding rate of BTC is 1.3%, which is the highest in over two weeks, although it remains in the neutral range.

BTC目前的月度资金费率为1.3%，为两周多来的最高水平，但仍处于中性区间。

Overall, Bitcoin derivatives metrics have shown improvement, and even though open interest has slightly decreased, this indicates that Bitcoin bears are not confident in adding positions below $95,000, which provides a positive outlook for the price.

总体而言，比特币衍生品指标有所改善，尽管未平仓合约略有下降，但这表明比特币空头没有信心在 95,000 美元以下增仓，这为价格提供了积极的前景。

In terms of altcoins, Steno's analysis suggests the possibility of a strong year for the sector, with a decline in BTC dominance expected from the current levels of 57%, dropping to around 45%.

就山寨币而言，Steno 的分析表明，该行业今年可能会表现强劲，预计 BTC 的主导地位将从目前 57% 的水平下降至 45% 左右。

This situation, combined with a rise of the trading pair ETH/BTC, would certainly lead to a strong influx of capital into lower capitalization tokens.

这种情况，再加上 ETH/BTC 交易对的上涨，肯定会导致资本大量涌入市值较低的代币。

It is worth noting that ETH/BTC is the catalyst market for the altcoin season: when ETH outperforms BTC, altcoins usually accompany the bull movement.

值得注意的是，ETH/BTC 是山寨币季节的催化剂市场：当 ETH 跑赢 BTC 时，山寨币通常会伴随牛市走势。

In this regard, the forecasts show high chances that ether will exceed at least the 0.06 level in relation to the first cryptocurrency, about double the current 0.035.

在这方面，预测显示，相对于第一种加密货币，以太币很有可能至少超过 0.06 的水平，大约是当前 0.035 的两倍。

This trading pair has been in bear mode for about two years and three months, down approximately 58% from the local top of September 2022.

该交易对已处于熊市模式约两年零三个月，较 2022 年 9 月的局部顶部下跌约 58%。

It is likely that soon Ethereum will react to this situation of submission, especially if it wants to establish itself as the second currency in the ranking.

以太坊很可能很快就会对这种提交情况做出反应，特别是如果它想将自己确立为排名中的第二货币。

The bullish forecasts are also fueled by the argument that Donald Trump’s victory

唐纳德·特朗普的胜利也加剧了乐观的预测