BTC 和 ETH 價格預測凸顯 2025 年看漲情景

Steno Research 表示，2025 年對 BTC 和 ETH 來說將是不平凡的一年，預測顯示市場有成長的沃土。

Cryptocurrency price forecasts for 2025 are generally optimistic, with some indicators suggesting the possibility of a particularly strong year for BTC, ETH, and the altcoin market as a whole.

對 2025 年加密貨幣價格的預測普遍樂觀，一些指標表明 BTC、ETH 和整個山寨幣市場可能會迎來特別強勁的一年。

Steno Research highlights the potential for BTC to reach new all-time highs in the upcoming months, targeting a price of $150,000 as the peak of the bull market.

Steno Research 強調 BTC 在未來幾個月內有可能創下歷史新高，目標價格為 15 萬美元，作為牛市的頂峰。

Meanwhile, ETH is also expected to experience significant growth, with Steno's analysis indicating a price range of $8,000, which would be a substantial increase from its current all-time highs.

同時，ETH 預計也將經歷顯著成長，Steno 的分析顯示價格範圍為 8,000 美元，這將比目前的歷史高點大幅上漲。

According to Steno, these bullish price forecasts are supported by a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, which is expected to continue in 2025.

Steno 表示，這些看漲的價格預測得到了加密貨幣有利的監管環境的支持，預計這種情況將在 2025 年持續下去。

The macroeconomic outlook also appears positive, with interest rates decreasing and liquidity improving in the coming year.

宏觀經濟前景也顯得樂觀，明年利率下降，流動性改善。

Furthermore, institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies is likely to expand, evidenced by the positive inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs, which are expected to reach $48 billion and $28.5 billion, respectively.

此外，機構對加密貨幣的採用可能會擴大，現貨 BTC 和 ETH ETF 的資金正流入就證明了這一點，預計這兩個資金將分別達到 480 億美元和 285 億美元。

Notably, 2025 could be a historically significant year for the crypto market, considering the strong performance observed in the years following Bitcoin's halving.

值得注意的是，考慮到比特幣減半後幾年的強勁表現，2025 年對於加密貨幣市場來說可能是具有歷史意義的一年。

Typically, these years experience high bull quarters with excellent returns on both BTC and ETH.

通常，這些年會經歷高牛市，BTC 和 ETH 的回報率都很高。

For instance, in 2017, which came a year after the 2016 halving, BTC and ETH both enjoyed four bull quarters of exceptional performance.

例如，2016 年減半一年後的 2017 年，BTC 和 ETH 都經歷了四個多頭市場的出色表現。

Similarly, 2021, following the 2020 halving, was particularly bullish, with BTC recording three positive quarters out of four and ETH replicating the four-of-a-kind bull market quarters.

同樣，2020 年減半後的 2021 年尤其看漲，BTC 在四個季度中錄得三個積極季度，而 ETH 則複製了四個季度的牛市季度。

Based on this historical trend, the price forecasts for 2025, especially in the first quarter (Q1), are optimistic, and it remains to be seen whether history will indeed repeat itself this time.

基於這一歷史趨勢，2025年尤其是第一季（Q1）的價格預測是樂觀的，而這次歷史是否真的會重演還有待觀察。

An analysis of BTC derivatives also suggests positive price forecasts in the short term, according to Deribit Insights.

Deribit Insights 表示，對 BTC 衍生性商品的分析也顯示短期內價格預測樂觀。

Since December 28, BTC has faced difficulty in maintaining the strong support at $95,000, and the demand for leverage has decreased.

自12月28日以來，BTC難以維持95,000美元強支撐，槓桿需求減少。

The bull experienced liquidations of $470 million in the following days, reaching the local low of $91,500 before bouncing back.

接下來的幾天裡，多頭經歷了 4.7 億美元的清算，在反彈之前觸及 91,500 美元的局部低點。

Meanwhile, the bears also show reduced strength, and a potential downside on the price of Bitcoin now seems limited.

與此同時，空頭的力量也有所減弱，比特幣價格的潛在下行空間現在似乎有限。

The open interest on BTC, which measures the total number of contracts on all BTC futures markets, suggests a bullish overall picture even with declining prices.

比特幣的未平倉合約衡量的是所有比特幣期貨市場上的合約總數，顯示即使價格下跌，整體情況仍看漲。

From the top of December 20, 2024, this metric has fallen to mark the lowest level since November 4, 2024, while still maintaining an excellent chart structure.

從2024年12月20日的頂部開始，該指標已跌至2024年11月4日以來的最低水平，但仍保持出色的圖表結構。

Furthermore, the 1-month BTC futures premium, generally traded between 5% and 10% in a neutral scenario, is currently at 15%.

此外，在中性情況下，1 個月的 BTC 期貨溢價通常在 5% 至 10% 之間交易，目前為 15%。

This marks the highest premium of the last two weeks, demonstrating the continued conviction of the bull despite the uncertainty over prices.

這標誌著過去兩週的最高溢價，表明儘管價格存在不確定性，但多頭仍然堅信。

Even the funding rate, or the financing rate of exchanges that regulates the leverage imbalance, suggests positive forecasts for the beginning of the new year.

即使是融資利率，或是調節槓桿失衡的交易所融資利率，也顯示了對新年伊始的正面預測。

In neutral markets, the long (buyers) generally pay a monthly fee from 0.4% to 1.8%, while higher rates indicate a growing bull sentiment.

在中性市場中，多頭（買家）通常支付 0.4% 至 1.8% 的月費，而較高的利率表明看漲情緒不斷增強。

The current monthly funding rate of BTC is 1.3%, which is the highest in over two weeks, although it remains in the neutral range.

BTC目前的月度資金費率為1.3%，為兩週多來的最高水平，但仍處於中性區間。

Overall, Bitcoin derivatives metrics have shown improvement, and even though open interest has slightly decreased, this indicates that Bitcoin bears are not confident in adding positions below $95,000, which provides a positive outlook for the price.

總體而言，比特幣衍生性指標有所改善，儘管未平倉合約略有下降，但這表明比特幣空頭沒有信心在 95,000 美元以下增倉，這為價格提供了積極的前景。

In terms of altcoins, Steno's analysis suggests the possibility of a strong year for the sector, with a decline in BTC dominance expected from the current levels of 57%, dropping to around 45%.

就山寨幣而言，Steno 的分析表明，該行業今年可能會表現強勁，預計 BTC 的主導地位將從目前的 57% 水平下降至 45% 左右。

This situation, combined with a rise of the trading pair ETH/BTC, would certainly lead to a strong influx of capital into lower capitalization tokens.

這種情況，再加上 ETH/BTC 交易對的上漲，肯定會導致資本大量湧入市值較低的代幣。

It is worth noting that ETH/BTC is the catalyst market for the altcoin season: when ETH outperforms BTC, altcoins usually accompany the bull movement.

值得注意的是，ETH/BTC 是山寨幣季節的催化劑市場：當 ETH 跑贏 BTC 時，山寨幣通常會伴隨牛市走勢。

In this regard, the forecasts show high chances that ether will exceed at least the 0.06 level in relation to the first cryptocurrency, about double the current 0.035.

在這方面，預測顯示，相對於第一種加密貨幣，以太幣很有可能至少超過 0.06 的水平，大約是目前 0.035 的兩倍。

This trading pair has been in bear mode for about two years and three months, down approximately 58% from the local top of September 2022.

該交易對已處於熊市模式約兩年零三個月，較 2022 年 9 月的局部頂部下跌約 58%。

It is likely that soon Ethereum will react to this situation of submission, especially if it wants to establish itself as the second currency in the ranking.

以太坊很可能很快就會對這種提交情況做出反應，特別是如果它想將自己確立為排名中的第二貨幣。

The bullish forecasts are also fueled by the argument that Donald Trump’s victory

唐納德·川普的勝利也加劇了樂觀的預測