BNB在市场动荡中的惊人崛起：探究其持久力

BNB 飙升 12% 至 620 美元，跑赢以太币 5% 的涨幅。然而，人们担心 BNB 是否已经见顶，因为数据表明近期的反弹可能已经推高了估值。 BNB Chain 的总锁定价值（TVL）大幅下降，反映出 DeFi 市场整体低迷。尽管如此，DApp 活动仍然强劲，有 200 万个活跃地址与链上的各种应用程序进行交互。

BNB's Meteoric Rise Amidst Market Turbulence: A Deeper Dive into Its Sustainability

BNB在市场动荡中崛起：深入探讨其可持续性

Binance Coin (BNB), the native cryptocurrency of the BNB Chain, has exhibited an impressive 12% surge in value over the past week, reaching a nearly two-week high of $620 by March 29. This notable performance has sparked a flurry of speculations about whether BNB has reached its peak or is poised for further growth.

BNB 链的原生加密货币币安币 (BNB) 在过去一周的价值飙升了 12%，截至 3 月 29 日达到近两周高点 620 美元。这一引人注目的表现引发了一系列猜测关于BNB是否已达到顶峰或准备进一步增长。

While BNB's surge has undoubtedly narrowed the valuation gap with its competitor Ether, which saw a 5% increase over the same period, a closer examination of on-chain data suggests that the recent rally might have tested the limits of its sustainability.

虽然BNB的飙升无疑缩小了与其竞争对手以太币（同期上涨5%）的估值差距，但对链上数据的仔细研究表明，最近的上涨可能已经考验了其可持续性的极限。

Influences on BNB's Price Trajectory

对 BNB 价格轨迹的影响

Market analysts have established a strong correlation between the crypto market's upward trajectory and inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, the week ending March 23 marked a setback as these ETFs experienced a net outflow of $890 million for the first time since their introduction in January. Despite this, recent data indicates a reduction in outflows from the Grayscale GBTC fund, with only $104 million exiting the fund by March 28.

市场分析师已经建立了加密货币市场的上涨轨迹与现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的流入之间的密切相关性。然而，截至 3 月 23 日的一周却出现了挫折，因为这些 ETF 自 1 月份推出以来首次出现 8.9 亿美元的净流出。尽管如此，最近的数据显示，Grayscale GBTC 基金的资金流出有所减少，截至 3 月 28 日，只有 1.04 亿美元退出该基金。

In early March, BNB's price surged by a staggering 61.7%, reaching a peak of $645 and a market capitalization of $96.4 billion. However, momentum slowed shortly afterward. It is worth noting that BNB previously reached an all-time high valuation of $116 billion in November 2021.

3月初，BNB价格飙升61.7%，最高达到645美元，市值达到964亿美元。然而，势头很快就放缓了。值得注意的是，BNB 此前在 2021 年 11 月估值达到 1160 亿美元的历史新高。

BNB Chain's Performance Within the Crypto Ecosystem

BNB Chain在加密生态系统中的表现

While the total value locked (TVL) on BNB Chain, representing deposits in the network's smart contracts, peaked at $15.7 billion, it has since fallen to $7.1 billion, marking a significant 55% decrease.

虽然 BNB 链上的锁定总价值 (TVL)（代表网络智能合约中的存款）曾达到 157 亿美元的峰值，但此后已降至 71 亿美元，大幅下降 55%。

To put this into context, the overall decline in the crypto market, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi) since late 2021, has resulted in a drop in total market TVL from nearly $205 billion to $155 billion, indicating a 25% decrease. Therefore, a thorough analysis of BNB Chain's TVL, especially concerning competitors like Ethereum and Solana, is warranted.

综上所述，自 2021 年底以来，加密货币市场，尤其是去中心化金融（DeFi）的整体下滑，导致市场总 TVL 从近 2050 亿美元下降至 1550 亿美元，下降了 25%。因此，有必要对 BNB Chain 的 TVL 进行彻底分析，尤其是针对以太坊和 Solana 等竞争对手。

Activity on BNB Chain: Beyond TVL

BNB链上的活动：超越TVL

TVL is not the sole indicator of a blockchain's success. The BNB Chain hosts a vibrant ecosystem of decentralized applications (DApps), including nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces, gaming platforms, decentralized betting systems, collectible platforms, and social networks, which operate without requiring significant deposits.

TVL 并不是区块链成功的唯一指标。 BNB 链拥有一个充满活力的去中心化应用程序 (DApp) 生态系统，包括不可替代代币 (NFT) 市场、游戏平台、去中心化投注系统、收藏平台和社交网络，这些系统无需大量存款即可运行。

In the past week, nearly 2 million active addresses engaged with DApps on the BNB Chain, showcasing significant activity levels comparable to Ethereum's most active layer-2 networks. This suggests that the BNB Chain continues to attract a large user base and foster innovation within the DeFi space.

过去一周，近 200 万个活跃地址与 BNB 链上的 DApp 进行了交互，其活跃水平可与以太坊最活跃的第 2 层网络相媲美。这表明 BNB 链继续吸引大量用户群并促进 DeFi 领域的创新。

Forecasting Future Trends: Derivative Metrics Provide Insights

预测未来趋势：衍生指标提供见解

Predicting cryptocurrency trends is an inherently challenging endeavor. However, examining derivative metrics such as the demand for leverage in BNB perpetual futures contracts can provide valuable insights into market sentiment.

预测加密货币趋势本质上是一项具有挑战性的工作。然而，检查 BNB 永续期货合约杠杆需求等衍生品指标可以为市场情绪提供有价值的见解。

While the demand for leveraged long positions has stabilized, with the 8-hour funding rate holding around 0.03%, optimism remains despite BNB's price struggle with the $620 level. Typically, a positive funding rate above 1.2% per week indicates bullish market sentiment.

尽管杠杆多头头寸的需求已趋于稳定，8 小时融资利率保持在 0.03% 左右，但尽管 BNB 价格在 620 美元的水平挣扎，但乐观情绪依然存在。通常，每周高于 1.2% 的正资金利率表明市场情绪看涨。

Conclusion: Assessing BNB's Long-Term Prospects

结论：评估 BNB 的长期前景

BNB's recent surge in value has been impressive, but it is crucial to assess its sustainability in light of market conditions and on-chain data. While the overall crypto market continues to face headwinds, BNB Chain's active DApp ecosystem and significant user base provide reasons for optimism.

BNB 最近的价值飙升令人印象深刻，但根据市场状况和链上数据评估其可持续性至关重要。尽管整体加密货币市场继续面临阻力，但 BNB Chain 活跃的 DApp 生态系统和庞大的用户基础为我们带来了乐观的理由。

However, the decline in TVL and the softening of demand for leverage in perpetual futures contracts suggest that BNB's recent rally might have extended beyond its immediate fundamentals. Whether BNB can sustain its current valuation or embark on further growth depends on the broader market conditions and the continued adoption and utility of the BNB Chain.

然而，TVL 的下降和永续期货合约杠杆需求的疲软表明，BNB 最近的涨势可能已经超出了其当前的基本面。 BNB 能否维持当前估值或进一步增长取决于更广泛的市场状况以及 BNB 链的持续采用和效用。