BNB在市場動盪中的驚人崛起：探究其持久力

BNB 飆漲 12% 至 620 美元，跑贏以太幣 5% 的漲幅。然而，人們擔心 BNB 是否已經見頂，因為數據表明近期的反彈可能已經推高了估值。 BNB Chain 的總鎖定價值（TVL）大幅下降，反映出 DeFi 市場整體低迷。儘管如此，DApp 活動仍然強勁，有 200 萬個活躍位址與鏈上的各種應用程式互動。

BNB's Meteoric Rise Amidst Market Turbulence: A Deeper Dive into Its Sustainability

BNB在市場動盪中崛起：深入探討其永續性

Binance Coin (BNB), the native cryptocurrency of the BNB Chain, has exhibited an impressive 12% surge in value over the past week, reaching a nearly two-week high of $620 by March 29. This notable performance has sparked a flurry of speculations about whether BNB has reached its peak or is poised for further growth.

BNB 鏈的原生加密貨幣幣安幣 (BNB) 在過去一周的價值飆升了 12%，截至 3 月 29 日達到近兩週高點 620 美元。這一引人注目的表現引發了一系列猜測關於BNB是否已達到頂峰或準備進一步增長。

While BNB's surge has undoubtedly narrowed the valuation gap with its competitor Ether, which saw a 5% increase over the same period, a closer examination of on-chain data suggests that the recent rally might have tested the limits of its sustainability.

雖然BNB的飆升無疑縮小了與其競爭對手以太幣（同期上漲5%）的估值差距，但對鏈上數據的仔細研究表明，最近的上漲可能已經考驗了其可持續性的極限。

Influences on BNB's Price Trajectory

對 BNB 價格軌跡的影響

Market analysts have established a strong correlation between the crypto market's upward trajectory and inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, the week ending March 23 marked a setback as these ETFs experienced a net outflow of $890 million for the first time since their introduction in January. Despite this, recent data indicates a reduction in outflows from the Grayscale GBTC fund, with only $104 million exiting the fund by March 28.

市場分析師已經建立了加密貨幣市場的上漲軌跡與現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的流入之間的密切相關性。然而，截至 3 月 23 日的一周出現了挫折，因為這些 ETF 自 1 月推出以來首次出現 8.9 億美元的淨流出。儘管如此，最近的數據顯示，Grayscale GBTC 基金的資金流出有所減少，截至 3 月 28 日，只有 1.04 億美元退出該基金。

In early March, BNB's price surged by a staggering 61.7%, reaching a peak of $645 and a market capitalization of $96.4 billion. However, momentum slowed shortly afterward. It is worth noting that BNB previously reached an all-time high valuation of $116 billion in November 2021.

3月初，BNB價格飆漲61.7%，最高達645美元，市值達964億美元。然而，勢頭很快就放緩了。值得注意的是，BNB 先前在 2021 年 11 月估值達到 1,160 億美元的歷史新高。

BNB Chain's Performance Within the Crypto Ecosystem

BNB Chain在加密生態系統中的表現

While the total value locked (TVL) on BNB Chain, representing deposits in the network's smart contracts, peaked at $15.7 billion, it has since fallen to $7.1 billion, marking a significant 55% decrease.

雖然 BNB 鏈上的鎖定總價值 (TVL)（代表網路智慧合約中的存款）曾達到 157 億美元的峰值，但此後已降至 71 億美元，大幅下降 55%。

To put this into context, the overall decline in the crypto market, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi) since late 2021, has resulted in a drop in total market TVL from nearly $205 billion to $155 billion, indicating a 25% decrease. Therefore, a thorough analysis of BNB Chain's TVL, especially concerning competitors like Ethereum and Solana, is warranted.

綜上所述，自 2021 年底以來，加密貨幣市場，尤其是去中心化金融（DeFi）的整體下滑，導致市場總 TVL 從近 2,050 億美元下降至 1,550 億美元，下降了 25%。因此，有必要對 BNB Chain 的 TVL 進行徹底分析，尤其是針對以太坊和 Solana 等競爭對手。

Activity on BNB Chain: Beyond TVL

BNB鏈上的活動：超越TVL

TVL is not the sole indicator of a blockchain's success. The BNB Chain hosts a vibrant ecosystem of decentralized applications (DApps), including nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces, gaming platforms, decentralized betting systems, collectible platforms, and social networks, which operate without requiring significant deposits.

TVL 並不是區塊鏈成功的唯一指標。 BNB 鏈擁有一個充滿活力的去中心化應用程式(DApp) 生態系統，包括不可替代代幣(NFT) 市場、遊戲平台、去中心化投注系統、收藏平台和社交網絡，這些系統無需大量存款即可運行。

In the past week, nearly 2 million active addresses engaged with DApps on the BNB Chain, showcasing significant activity levels comparable to Ethereum's most active layer-2 networks. This suggests that the BNB Chain continues to attract a large user base and foster innovation within the DeFi space.

過去一周，近 200 萬個活躍地址與 BNB 鏈上的 DApp 進行了交互，其活躍水平可與以太坊最活躍的第 2 層網路相媲美。這表明 BNB 鏈繼續吸引大量用戶群並促進 DeFi 領域的創新。

Forecasting Future Trends: Derivative Metrics Provide Insights

預測未來趨勢：衍生性指標提供見解

Predicting cryptocurrency trends is an inherently challenging endeavor. However, examining derivative metrics such as the demand for leverage in BNB perpetual futures contracts can provide valuable insights into market sentiment.

預測加密貨幣趨勢本質上是一項具有挑戰性的工作。然而，檢視 BNB 永續期貨合約槓桿需求等衍生性商品指標可以為市場情緒提供有價值的見解。

While the demand for leveraged long positions has stabilized, with the 8-hour funding rate holding around 0.03%, optimism remains despite BNB's price struggle with the $620 level. Typically, a positive funding rate above 1.2% per week indicates bullish market sentiment.

儘管槓桿多頭部位的需求已趨於穩定，8 小時融資利率保持在 0.03% 左右，但儘管 BNB 價格在 620 美元的水平掙扎，但樂觀情緒依然存在。通常，每週高於 1.2% 的正資金利率表示市場情緒看漲。

Conclusion: Assessing BNB's Long-Term Prospects

結論：評估 BNB 的長期前景

BNB's recent surge in value has been impressive, but it is crucial to assess its sustainability in light of market conditions and on-chain data. While the overall crypto market continues to face headwinds, BNB Chain's active DApp ecosystem and significant user base provide reasons for optimism.

BNB 最近的價值飆升令人印象深刻，但根據市場狀況和鏈上數據評估其可持續性至關重要。儘管整體加密貨幣市場繼續面臨阻力，但 BNB Chain 活躍的 DApp 生態系統和龐大的用戶基礎為我們帶來了樂觀的理由。

However, the decline in TVL and the softening of demand for leverage in perpetual futures contracts suggest that BNB's recent rally might have extended beyond its immediate fundamentals. Whether BNB can sustain its current valuation or embark on further growth depends on the broader market conditions and the continued adoption and utility of the BNB Chain.

然而，TVL 的下降和永續期貨合約槓桿需求的疲軟表明，BNB 最近的漲勢可能已經超出了其當前的基本面。 BNB 能否維持當前估值或進一步成長取決於更廣泛的市場狀況以及 BNB 鏈的持續採用和效用。