比特币并未受到经济动荡的影响，表现出日益复苏的势头

尽管美国就业报告强劲且对利率感到担忧，但包括比特币（BTC）在内的金融市场周五上涨。比特币对宏观因素的抵抗力表明它脱离了传统的市场噪音，为投资者提供了过度印钞的替代方案。从历史上看，比特币在减半事件后经历了上涨趋势，尽管在即将到来的减半之前达到了历史新高，但它可能会遵循类似的模式，并在 2024 年保持潜在的上涨空间。

Bitcoin's Resilience Amidst Economic Crosswinds

比特币在经济逆风中的韧性

Despite a strong jobs report that exceeded expectations, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated remarkable resilience in financial markets on Friday, underscoring its growing immunity to macroeconomic noise. The U.S. economy added an unexpected 303,000 jobs in March, far surpassing economists' estimates of 200,000. This robust data raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's strategy on interest rates, as it implied that the economy is not slowing down as anticipated.

尽管就业报告强劲超出预期，但比特币（BTC）周五在金融市场表现出显着的弹性，突显其对宏观经济噪音的免疫力不断增强。 3月份美国经济意外增加了30.3万个就业岗位，远超经济学家预期的20万个。这一强劲数据引发了人们对美联储利率策略的担忧，因为它暗示经济并未如预期放缓。

The latest jobs report put the Fed in a precarious position, as it suggests that the market's hope for an interest rate cut in June may be premature. Experts believe that the strong job growth could exacerbate inflationary pressures and necessitate continued higher interest rates.

最新的就业报告让美联储陷入了危险的境地，因为它表明市场对六月降息的希望可能为时过早。专家认为，强劲的就业增长可能会加剧通胀压力，并需要继续提高利率。

"These figures don't show the much-needed reduction in friction between the number of candidates and vacancies, meaning wages are more likely to remain in an upward trajectory," said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "Not only does this make the fight against inflation more difficult, it puts a potential pin in hopes for an interest rate cut in June."

Hargreaves Lansdown 首席股票分析师索菲·隆德-耶茨 (Sophie Lund-Yates) 表示：“这些数据并未显示候选人数量与职位空缺之间的摩擦急需减少，这意味着工资更有可能保持上升趋势。” “这不仅使对抗通胀变得更加困难，而且还为六月份降息的希望奠定了潜在的基础。”

The surprising jobs data, coupled with heightened inflation readings, sparked a week of volatile trading across financial markets. The DXY and U.S. 10-year Treasury yield initially spiked, only to fall later. Stocks retreated from near-record highs, while cryptocurrencies suffered a sell-off early in the week before recovering as the week progressed. Gold, benefiting from the uncertainty, notched five consecutive days of record highs.

令人惊讶的就业数据，加上通胀数据的上升，引发了金融市场一周的波动交易。美元指数和美国 10 年期国债收益率最初飙升，但随后下跌。股市从接近历史高位回落，而加密货币在本周初遭受抛售，然后随着本周的进展而反弹。受益于不确定性，黄金连续五天创下历史新高。

Amidst this market turmoil, the Federal Reserve has sought to calm investor nerves with mixed messages about interest rate policy. "It's been a week of mixed messages from the Federal Reserve, where cuts are still very much on the table for the year, but policymakers won't be drawn into giving any guarantees," said Lund-Yates. "Some corners of the market think cuts could be delayed until 2025, and it's certainly true that a run of weaker economic data will be needed for these to happen."

在市场动荡的背景下，美联储试图通过有关利率政策的复杂信息来安抚投资者的紧张情绪。隆德-耶茨表示：“这周美联储发出的信息好坏参半，今年的降息问题仍然在讨论中，但政策制定者不会做出任何保证。” “市场的一些角落认为减产可能会推迟到 2025 年，而且确实需要一系列疲弱的经济数据才能实现减产。”

Despite the uncertainty surrounding interest rates, financial markets rallied collectively on Friday, including Bitcoin, which shrugged off the concerns. Bitcoin slid lower in early trading after reaching $69,360 on Thursday, but recovered sharply after the jobs report release. Bulls are now looking to reclaim support at $68,500, indicating a strong appetite for Bitcoin in the face of economic headwinds.

尽管利率存在不确定性，但金融市场周五集体反弹，其中包括比特币，它摆脱了人们的担忧。比特币在周四触及 69,360 美元后早盘下跌，但在就业报告发布后大幅回升。多头现在正在寻求夺回 68,500 美元的支撑位，这表明在经济逆风的情况下对比特币的强烈兴趣。

Bitcoin's resilience is a testament to its growing maturity and its ability to attract investors seeking an alternative to the traditional financial system. The strong monthly and yearly performance of Bitcoin suggests that it is increasingly seen as a safe haven asset, providing investors with a potential exit strategy from the inflationary environment.

比特币的弹性证明了它的日益成熟以及它吸引寻求传统金融体系替代方案的投资者的能力。比特币强劲的月度和年度表现表明，它越来越被视为避险资产，为投资者提供了逃离通胀环境的潜在退出策略。

"Bitcoin concluded the month of March at approximately $71,300, marking a 16.6% increase from the previous month's closing value of around $61,150," said Matteo Greco, Research Analyst at Fineqia International. "This monthly surge represents a historic milestone for BTC price action. March witnessed the seventh consecutive month of price growth for BTC, a first since its inception."

Fineqia International 研究分析师 Matteo Greco 表示：“比特币 3 月份收盘价约为 71,300 美元，较上个月约 61,150 美元的收盘价上涨 16.6%。” “这个月度飙升代表了 BTC 价格走势的历史性里程碑。3 月份见证了 BTC 价格连续第七个月上涨，这是自推出以来的第一次。”

Greco attributed the recent growth in Bitcoin's price to the demand for Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which have attracted over $12 billion in net inflows since their launch. "The recent price growth is primarily fueled by demand for BTC Spot ETFs, which have accumulated over $12 billion in net inflows since their inception," he said.

Greco 将近期比特币价格的增长归因于对比特币现货 ETF 的需求，自推出以来，比特币现货 ETF 已吸引超过 120 亿美元的净流入。他表示：“最近的价格增长主要是由 BTC 现货 ETF 的需求推动的，自推出以来，这些 ETF 的净流入已累计超过 120 亿美元。”

While Bitcoin's price has cooled slightly since the start of April, Greco believes that the upcoming Bitcoin halving, expected for April 20th, will be a major catalyst for the cryptocurrency. The halving will reduce the block rewards for miners from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, historically leading to periods of price appreciation.

尽管比特币的价格自 4 月初以来略有降温，但 Greco 认为，预计将于 4 月 20 日到来的比特币减半将成为该加密货币的主要催化剂。减半将使矿工的区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC，这在历史上会导致价格上涨。

"Historically, BTC halving events have marked significant points followed by 9-18 months of uptrend, culminating in cycle peaks," said Greco. "If historical patterns repeat, we may witness an uptrend for the remaining nine months of 2024, leading to a cycle peak expected between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025."

Greco 表示：“从历史上看，BTC 减半事件标志着重要时刻，随后是 9-18 个月的上升趋势，最终达到周期峰值。” “如果历史模式重演，我们可能会看到 2024 年剩余 9 个月的上升趋势，预计在 2024 年第四季度至 2025 年第二季度之间出现周期峰值。”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $68,215, reflecting a 0.95% increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency's resilience in the face of economic crosswinds and its potential for further growth in the wake of the halving underscore its increasing significance as a transformative asset class.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 68,215 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 0.95%。加密货币在经济逆风中的韧性及其在减半后进一步增长的潜力突显了其作为一种变革性资产类别的日益重要的意义。