比特幣並未受到經濟動盪的影響，展現日益復甦的勢頭

儘管美國就業報告強勁且對利率感到擔憂，但包括比特幣（BTC）在內的金融市場週五上漲。比特幣對宏觀因素的抵抗力表明它脫離了傳統的市場噪音，為投資者提供了過度印鈔的替代方案。從歷史上看，比特幣在減半事件後經歷了上漲趨勢，儘管在即將到來的減半之前達到了歷史新高，但它可能會遵循類似的模式，並在 2024 年保持潛在的上漲空間。

Bitcoin's Resilience Amidst Economic Crosswinds

比特幣在經濟逆風中的韌性

Despite a strong jobs report that exceeded expectations, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated remarkable resilience in financial markets on Friday, underscoring its growing immunity to macroeconomic noise. The U.S. economy added an unexpected 303,000 jobs in March, far surpassing economists' estimates of 200,000. This robust data raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's strategy on interest rates, as it implied that the economy is not slowing down as anticipated.

儘管就業報告強勁超出預期，但比特幣（BTC）週五在金融市場表現出顯著的彈性，突顯其對宏觀經濟噪音的免疫力不斷增強。 3月美國經濟意外增加了30.3萬個就業機會，遠超過經濟學家預期的20萬個。這一強勁數據引發了人們對聯準會利率策略的擔憂，因為它暗示經濟並未如預期放緩。

The latest jobs report put the Fed in a precarious position, as it suggests that the market's hope for an interest rate cut in June may be premature. Experts believe that the strong job growth could exacerbate inflationary pressures and necessitate continued higher interest rates.

最新的就業報告讓聯準會陷入了危險的境地，因為它表明市場對六月降息的希望可能為時過早。專家認為，強勁的就業成長可能會加劇通膨壓力，並需要繼續提高利率。

"These figures don't show the much-needed reduction in friction between the number of candidates and vacancies, meaning wages are more likely to remain in an upward trajectory," said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "Not only does this make the fight against inflation more difficult, it puts a potential pin in hopes for an interest rate cut in June."

Hargreaves Lansdown 首席股票分析師 Sophie Lund-Yates 表示：「這些數據並未顯示候選人數量與職缺之間的摩擦急需減少，這意味著薪資更有可能保持上升趨勢。” “這不僅使對抗通膨變得更加困難，而且還為六月降息的希望奠定了潛在的基礎。”

The surprising jobs data, coupled with heightened inflation readings, sparked a week of volatile trading across financial markets. The DXY and U.S. 10-year Treasury yield initially spiked, only to fall later. Stocks retreated from near-record highs, while cryptocurrencies suffered a sell-off early in the week before recovering as the week progressed. Gold, benefiting from the uncertainty, notched five consecutive days of record highs.

令人驚訝的就業數據，加上通膨數據的上升，引發了金融市場一週的波動交易。美元指數和美國 10 年期公債殖利率最初飆升，但隨後下跌。股市從接近歷史高點回落，而加密貨幣在本周初遭受拋售，然後隨著本週的進展而反彈。受益於不確定性，黃金連續五天創下歷史新高。

Amidst this market turmoil, the Federal Reserve has sought to calm investor nerves with mixed messages about interest rate policy. "It's been a week of mixed messages from the Federal Reserve, where cuts are still very much on the table for the year, but policymakers won't be drawn into giving any guarantees," said Lund-Yates. "Some corners of the market think cuts could be delayed until 2025, and it's certainly true that a run of weaker economic data will be needed for these to happen."

在市場動盪的背景下，聯準會試圖透過有關利率政策的複雜資訊來安撫投資者的緊張情緒。隆德-耶茨表示：“這周美聯儲發出的信息好壞參半，今年的降息問題仍然在討論中，但政策制定者不會做出任何保證。” “市場的一些角落認為減產可能會推遲到 2025 年，而且確實需要一系列疲軟的經濟數據才能實現減產。”

Despite the uncertainty surrounding interest rates, financial markets rallied collectively on Friday, including Bitcoin, which shrugged off the concerns. Bitcoin slid lower in early trading after reaching $69,360 on Thursday, but recovered sharply after the jobs report release. Bulls are now looking to reclaim support at $68,500, indicating a strong appetite for Bitcoin in the face of economic headwinds.

儘管利率存在不確定性，但金融市場週五集體反彈，其中包括比特幣，它擺脫了人們的擔憂。比特幣在周四觸及 69,360 美元後早盤下跌，但在就業報告發布後大幅回升。多頭現在正在尋求奪回 68,500 美元的支撐位，這表明在經濟逆風的情況下對比特幣的強烈興趣。

Bitcoin's resilience is a testament to its growing maturity and its ability to attract investors seeking an alternative to the traditional financial system. The strong monthly and yearly performance of Bitcoin suggests that it is increasingly seen as a safe haven asset, providing investors with a potential exit strategy from the inflationary environment.

比特幣的彈性證明了它的日益成熟以及它吸引尋求傳統金融體系替代方案的投資者的能力。比特幣強勁的月度和年度表現表明，它越來越被視為避險資產，為投資者提供了逃離通膨環境的潛在退出策略。

"Bitcoin concluded the month of March at approximately $71,300, marking a 16.6% increase from the previous month's closing value of around $61,150," said Matteo Greco, Research Analyst at Fineqia International. "This monthly surge represents a historic milestone for BTC price action. March witnessed the seventh consecutive month of price growth for BTC, a first since its inception."

Fineqia International 研究分析師 Matteo Greco 表示：“比特幣 3 月收盤價約為 71,300 美元，較上個月約 61,150 美元的收盤價上漲 16.6%。” “這個月度飆升代表了 BTC 價格走勢的歷史性里程碑。3 月份見證了 BTC 價格連續第七個月上漲，這是自推出以來的第一次。”

Greco attributed the recent growth in Bitcoin's price to the demand for Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which have attracted over $12 billion in net inflows since their launch. "The recent price growth is primarily fueled by demand for BTC Spot ETFs, which have accumulated over $12 billion in net inflows since their inception," he said.

Greco 將近期比特幣價格的成長歸因於對比特幣現貨 ETF 的需求，自推出以來，比特幣現貨 ETF 已吸引超過 120 億美元的淨流入。他表示：“最近的價格增長主要是由 BTC 現貨 ETF 的需求推動的，自推出以來，這些 ETF 的淨流入已累計超過 120 億美元。”

While Bitcoin's price has cooled slightly since the start of April, Greco believes that the upcoming Bitcoin halving, expected for April 20th, will be a major catalyst for the cryptocurrency. The halving will reduce the block rewards for miners from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, historically leading to periods of price appreciation.

儘管比特幣的價格自 4 月初以來略有降溫，但 Greco 認為，預計 4 月 20 日到來的比特幣減半將成為該加密貨幣的主要催化劑。減半將使礦工的區塊獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減少到 3.125 BTC，這在歷史上會導致價格上漲。

"Historically, BTC halving events have marked significant points followed by 9-18 months of uptrend, culminating in cycle peaks," said Greco. "If historical patterns repeat, we may witness an uptrend for the remaining nine months of 2024, leading to a cycle peak expected between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025."

Greco 表示：“從歷史上看，BTC 減半事件標誌著重要時刻，隨後是 9-18 個月的上升趨勢，最終達到週期峰值。” “如果歷史模式重演，我們可能會看到 2024 年剩餘 9 個月的上升趨勢，預計在 2024 年第四季度至 2025 年第二季度之間出現週期峰值。”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $68,215, reflecting a 0.95% increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency's resilience in the face of economic crosswinds and its potential for further growth in the wake of the halving underscore its increasing significance as a transformative asset class.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 68,215 美元，在過去 24 小時內上漲了 0.95%。加密貨幣在經濟逆風中的韌性及其在減半後進一步增長的潛力突顯了其作為一種變革性資產類別的日益重要的意義。