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根据纽约数字投资集团 (NYDIG) 的最新分析,比特币 (BTC) 仍然是 2024 年表现最佳的资产类别,尽管其领先优势有所缩小。
Bitcoin (BTC) still leads as the top-performing asset in 2024, despite a “seasonally weak” third quarter, according to the latest analysis from the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG).
根据纽约数字投资集团 (NYDIG) 的最新分析,尽管第三季度“季节性疲软”,但比特币 (BTC) 仍是 2024 年表现最佳的资产。
The cryptocurrency saw a modest 2.5% gain during Q3, bouncing back after a decline in the previous quarter. However, large-scale sales, including government sell-offs from the U.S. and Germany, limited its performance, NYDIG’s Head of Research, Greg Cipolaro, noted in a report published on October 4.
该加密货币在第三季度小幅上涨 2.5%,在上一季度下跌后反弹。然而,NYDIG 研究主管 Greg Cipolaro 在 10 月 4 日发布的一份报告中指出,大规模抛售,包括美国和德国政府的抛售,限制了其业绩。
“Bitcoin is still the best-performing asset class in 2024, though its lead has narrowed,” Cipolaro stated, highlighting a year-to-date return of 49.2%.
Cipolaro 表示:“比特币仍然是 2024 年表现最好的资产类别,尽管其领先优势已经缩小。”他强调,今年迄今为止的回报率为 49.2%。
Over the past six months, Bitcoin’s trading has remained rangebound, largely due to significant headwinds. These include the distribution of nearly $13.5 billion in Bitcoin from Mt. Gox and Genesis creditors, which has weighed heavily on market activity.
在过去的六个月里,比特币的交易一直保持区间波动,这主要是由于巨大的阻力。其中包括 Mt. Gox 和 Genesis 债权人分配的近 135 亿美元的比特币,这对市场活动造成了沉重压力。
While Bitcoin continues to lead, Cipolaro observed that other asset classes, including precious metals and select equity sectors, have also posted strong returns. Despite broader market gains, Bitcoin bucked historical trends by increasing 10% in September, a typically bearish month for the digital asset.
尽管比特币继续领先,但西波拉罗观察到,包括贵金属和精选股票板块在内的其他资产类别也取得了强劲的回报。尽管市场整体上涨,但比特币在 9 月份逆历史趋势上涨了 10%,这是数字资产典型的看跌月份。
Several factors contributed to Bitcoin’s resilience. Demand from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remained robust, attracting $4.3 billion in inflows during the quarter. Additionally, corporate investment in Bitcoin has grown, with companies like MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital expanding their holdings.
有几个因素促成了比特币的弹性。美国现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的需求依然强劲,本季度吸引了 43 亿美元的资金流入。此外,企业对比特币的投资也在增长,MicroStrategy 和 Marathon Digital 等公司都在扩大其持有量。
Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities rose during Q3, reaching a 90-day rolling correlation of 0.46, Cipolaro noted. However, he emphasized that this level remains relatively low, affirming Bitcoin’s continued value as a diversification tool within multi-asset portfolios.
Cipolaro 指出,比特币与美国股市的相关性在第三季度上升,90 天滚动相关性达到 0.46。然而,他强调这一水平仍然相对较低,这证实了比特币作为多资产投资组合中的多元化工具的持续价值。
Political and macroeconomic developments also played a role in Bitcoin’s performance toward the end of Q3. These include former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of the cryptocurrency industry, easing monetary policies from the Federal Reserve, and stimulus measures by China’s central bank. Looking ahead, Cipolaro suggested that the outcome of the U.S. election on November 5 will have a significant impact on market sentiment, with a Trump victory potentially driving greater gains for Bitcoin.
政治和宏观经济发展也对第三季度末比特币的表现产生了影响。其中包括前总统唐纳德·特朗普对加密货币行业的支持、美联储放松货币政策以及中国央行的刺激措施。展望未来,Cipolaro 表示,11 月 5 日的美国大选结果将对市场情绪产生重大影响,特朗普的胜利可能会推动比特币获得更大涨幅。
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