比特币测试市场动荡的关键支持水平

QCP Capital强调了大选后市场乐观的逆转，因为美国股票和加密货币在转移财政和风险情绪转移时面临历史性的抛售。

As U.S. equities and cryptocurrency market a historic sell-off on Thursday, sparked by a shift in fiscal and risk sentiment, QCP Capital highlighted a stark reversal of post-election optimism.

作为美国股票和加密货币市场，周四的历史性抛售是在财政和风险情绪的转变引起的，QCP Capital强调了大选后乐观的明显逆转。

Former President Donald Trump's recent remarks further dented market mood, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling 2.7% and 3.8%, respectively. This marks the largest single-day loss for the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, amounting to over $830 billion.

前总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近的讲话进一步掩盖了市场情绪，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克分别下降了2.7％和3.8％。这标志着“ Magnificent 7”技术股票最大的单日损失，总计超过8300亿美元。

Bearish sentiment at the start of the week was evident in US equities put option volumes, reaching their highest since 2020. This was driven by Trump's Fox News interview, where he downplayed recession risks and viewed a potential downturn as a necessary corrective measure.

在本周初的看跌情绪在美国股票中很明显，这是自2020年以来的最高期权。这是由特朗普的福克斯新闻采访驱动的，他淡化了经济衰退的风险，并认为潜在的下滑是必要的纠正措施。

"Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the bleak outlook and potential for a U.S. recession, we saw a strong shift in options volumes at the start of the week," QCP said in part.

QCP部分地说：“也许毫不奇怪，鉴于美国衰退的黯淡和潜力，我们在本周初期的期权量发生了强烈的变化。”

"With the S&P 500 now down 10.4% from its August highs, we saw a 356% surge in put options volume versus calls on Monday," it added.

它补充说：“现在，标准普尔500指数比8月份的高点下降了10.4％，我们看到周一的选项量与呼叫相比，持续期权量增加了356％。”

Bitcoin, often viewed as a pressure valve for risk assets, fell below the $80,000 level as investors sought put protection. However, early Asian trading showed unexpected demand for longer-tenor call options, suggesting traders are positioning for a rebound from the $75,000 support level seen pre-election.

由于投资者寻求保护，比特币通常被视为风险资产的压力阀，低于80,000美元的水平。但是，早期的亚洲交易表明对更长的呼叫选项的需求意外，这表明交易者正在从75,000美元的支持水平的选举前获得反弹的定位。

"This shift from puts to calls amid a broader market sell-off is interesting, especially considering bitcoin’s continued correlation with broader risk asset trends," QCP said.

QCP说：“在更广泛的市场抛售中，这种转变很有趣，尤其是考虑到比特币与更广泛的风险资产趋势的持续关联。”

Despite the equity rout, 10-year Treasury yields fell roughly 60 basis points, while the U.S. dollar weakened—a combination that has historically been positive for USD-denominated risk assets like equities and crypto.

尽管有股权途径，但10年的国库收益率下降了大约60个基点，而美元削弱了，这种组合在历史上对以USD为生的风险资产（如股票和加密货币）是积极的。

Lower yields also ease borrowing costs for the U.S. government, which needs to refinance a significant amount of debt this year.

较低的收益率也减轻了美国政府的借贷成本，这需要为今年的大量债务再融资。

QCP expressed concerns over Trump's proposed tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies, which could strain deficit projections. But the firm added that current yield levels provide temporary fiscal relief, setting the stage for a complex backdrop as investors navigate policy risks and market volatility.

QCP对特朗普提议的减税和扩张性财政政策表示担忧，这可能会损害赤字预测。但是该公司补充说，当前的收益水平提供了临时的财政救济，随着投资者驾驶政策风险和市场波动，为复杂的背景奠定了基础。

"Overall, it seems like macroeconomic conditions and policy developments may recalibrate market trajectories in the coming weeks," QCP concluded.

QCP总结说：“总体而言，宏观经济状况和政策发展似乎可以在未来几周重新校准市场轨迹。”