比特幣測試市場動蕩的關鍵支持水平

QCP Capital強調了大選後市場樂觀的逆轉，因為美國股票和加密貨幣在轉移財政和風險情緒轉移時面臨歷史性的拋售。

As U.S. equities and cryptocurrency market a historic sell-off on Thursday, sparked by a shift in fiscal and risk sentiment, QCP Capital highlighted a stark reversal of post-election optimism.

作為美國股票和加密貨幣市場，週四的歷史性拋售是在財政和風險情緒的轉變引起的，QCP Capital強調了大選後樂觀的明顯逆轉。

Former President Donald Trump's recent remarks further dented market mood, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling 2.7% and 3.8%, respectively. This marks the largest single-day loss for the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, amounting to over $830 billion.

前總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近的講話進一步掩蓋了市場情緒，標準普爾500指數和納斯達克分別下降了2.7％和3.8％。這標誌著“ Magnificent 7”技術股票最大的單日損失，總計超過8300億美元。

Bearish sentiment at the start of the week was evident in US equities put option volumes, reaching their highest since 2020. This was driven by Trump's Fox News interview, where he downplayed recession risks and viewed a potential downturn as a necessary corrective measure.

在本周初的看跌情緒在美國股票中很明顯，這是自2020年以來的最高期權。這是由特朗普的福克斯新聞採訪驅動的，他淡化了經濟衰退的風險，並認為潛在的下滑是必要的糾正措施。

"Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the bleak outlook and potential for a U.S. recession, we saw a strong shift in options volumes at the start of the week," QCP said in part.

QCP部分地說：“也許毫不奇怪，鑑於美國衰退的黯淡和潛力，我們在本周初期的期權量發生了強烈的變化。”

"With the S&P 500 now down 10.4% from its August highs, we saw a 356% surge in put options volume versus calls on Monday," it added.

它補充說：“現在，標準普爾500指數比8月份的高點下降了10.4％，我們看到週一的選項量與呼叫相比，持續期權量增加了356％。”

Bitcoin, often viewed as a pressure valve for risk assets, fell below the $80,000 level as investors sought put protection. However, early Asian trading showed unexpected demand for longer-tenor call options, suggesting traders are positioning for a rebound from the $75,000 support level seen pre-election.

由於投資者尋求保護，比特幣通常被視為風險資產的壓力閥，低於80,000美元的水平。但是，早期的亞洲交易表明對更長的呼叫選項的需求意外，這表明交易者正在從75,000美元的支持水平的選舉前獲得反彈的定位。

"This shift from puts to calls amid a broader market sell-off is interesting, especially considering bitcoin’s continued correlation with broader risk asset trends," QCP said.

QCP說：“在更廣泛的市場拋售中，這種轉變很有趣，尤其是考慮到比特幣與更廣泛的風險資產趨勢的持續關聯。”

Despite the equity rout, 10-year Treasury yields fell roughly 60 basis points, while the U.S. dollar weakened—a combination that has historically been positive for USD-denominated risk assets like equities and crypto.

儘管有股權途徑，但10年的國庫收益率下降了大約60個基點，而美元削弱了，這種組合在歷史上對以USD為生的風險資產（如股票和加密貨幣）是積極的。

Lower yields also ease borrowing costs for the U.S. government, which needs to refinance a significant amount of debt this year.

較低的收益率也減輕了美國政府的借貸成本，這需要為今年的大量債務再融資。

QCP expressed concerns over Trump's proposed tax cuts and expansionary fiscal policies, which could strain deficit projections. But the firm added that current yield levels provide temporary fiscal relief, setting the stage for a complex backdrop as investors navigate policy risks and market volatility.

QCP對特朗普提議的減稅和擴張性財政政策表示擔憂，這可能會損害赤字預測。但是該公司補充說，當前的收益水平提供了臨時的財政救濟，隨著投資者駕駛政策風險和市場波動，為複雜的背景奠定了基礎。

"Overall, it seems like macroeconomic conditions and policy developments may recalibrate market trajectories in the coming weeks," QCP concluded.

QCP總結說：“總體而言，宏觀經濟狀況和政策發展似乎可以在未來幾週重新校準市場軌跡。”