比特币长期持有者：为套现或市场高峰做好准备吗？

比特币的长期持有者（LTH）一直在分发他们的比特币，这是历史上与市场顶峰相关的趋势。 Glassnode 的“LTH 市场通胀率”指标（衡量 LTH 相对于每日矿工发行量的比特币积累或分配的年化率）最近一直在增加，表明 LTH 正在抛售。虽然该价格尚未达到显着水平，但 Glassnode 表明我们正处于分销周期的早期阶段，这表明未来价格可能会达到顶峰。

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders: Are They Getting Ready to Cash Out?

比特币长期持有者：他们准备好兑现了吗？

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, has dropped a bombshell: Bitcoin (BTC) tends to hit its peak when long-term holders (LTHs) start selling. So, are LTHs getting ready to hit the exit door?

链上分析公司 Glassnode 抛出了一个重磅炸弹：当长期持有者 (LTH) 开始抛售时，比特币 (BTC) 往往会达到顶峰。那么，LTH 准备好退出了吗？

Who Are LTHs?

LTH 是谁？

LTHs are Bitcoin investors who've been holding their coins for over 155 days. They're like the steady eddies of the market, holding tight through thick and thin.

LTH 是持有比特币超过 155 天的比特币投资者。它们就像市场稳定的漩涡，无论顺境还是逆境都紧紧抓住。

LTHs vs. STHs

LTH 与 STH

In the Bitcoin world, there's another group of players: short-term holders (STHs). These guys are more like the fair-weather friends, buying and selling on a whim.

在比特币世界中，还有另一群参与者：短期持有者（STH）。这些人更像是酒肉朋友，随心所欲地买卖。

Why LTH Distribution Matters

为什么 LTH 分布很重要

It's not uncommon for STHs to sell, but when LTHs start distributing their coins, it's like hearing the dinner bell for bears. It's a sign that even the most patient investors are starting to doubt the market.

出售 STH 的情况并不少见，但当 LTH 开始分发他们的代币时，就像听到熊的晚餐铃声一样。这表明即使是最耐心的投资者也开始怀疑市场。

Tracking LTH Behavior

跟踪 LTH 行为

Glassnode uses a metric called the "LTH Market Inflation Rate" to gauge LTH behavior. It shows how much Bitcoin LTHs are buying or selling compared to what miners are issuing.

Glassnode 使用称为“LTH 市场通胀率”的指标来衡量 LTH 行为。它显示了与矿工发行的比特币 LTH 的购买或出售数量相比。

When LTHs Sell, BTC Peaks

当 LTH 卖出时，BTC 见顶

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to peak when the LTH Market Inflation Rate hits its highest point. This suggests that when LTHs start selling, the market is approaching a tipping point.

从历史上看，当 LTH 市场通胀率达到最高点时，比特币往往会达到顶峰。这表明，当 LTH 开始出售时，市场正在接近一个临界点。

Current LTH Activity

当前 LTH 活动

The LTH Market Inflation Rate has been rising lately, but it's not yet at a critical level. Glassnode says we're in the early stages of a distribution cycle, with about 30% completed.

LTH市场通胀率近期一直在上升，但尚未达到临界水平。 Glassnode 表示，我们正处于分发周期的早期阶段，大约已完成 30%。

What This Means for BTC

这对比特币意味着什么

If LTHs continue to distribute their coins, it could put pressure on Bitcoin's price. Glassnode warns that we could be approaching a market equilibrium point and potential price tops.

如果 LTH 继续分发他们的代币，可能会给比特币的价格带来压力。 Glassnode 警告称，我们可能正在接近市场均衡点和潜在的价格顶部。

BTC Price Today

今日比特币价格

Bitcoin has lost some of its recent gains, falling to $63,800. The market is watching closely to see if LTHs continue to sell, which could send BTC tumbling further.

比特币已经失去了近期的部分涨幅，跌至 63,800 美元。市场正在密切关注 LTH 是否继续抛售，这可能会导致 BTC 进一步暴跌。