比特幣長期持有者：為套現或市場高峰做好準備嗎？

比特幣的長期持有者（LTH）一直在分發他們的比特幣，這是歷史上與市場頂峰相關的趨勢。 Glassnode 的「LTH 市場通膨率」指標（衡量 LTH 相對於每日礦工發行量的比特幣累積或分配的年化率）最近一直在增加，表明 LTH 正在拋售。雖然該價格尚未達到顯著水平，但 Glassnode 表明我們正處於分銷週期的早期階段，這表明未來價格可能會達到頂峰。

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders: Are They Getting Ready to Cash Out?

比特幣長期持有者：他們準備好兌現了嗎？

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, has dropped a bombshell: Bitcoin (BTC) tends to hit its peak when long-term holders (LTHs) start selling. So, are LTHs getting ready to hit the exit door?

鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 拋出了一個重磅炸彈：當長期持有者 (LTH) 開始拋售時，比特幣 (BTC) 往往會達到頂峰。那麼，LTH 準備好退出了嗎？

Who Are LTHs?

LTH 是誰？

LTHs are Bitcoin investors who've been holding their coins for over 155 days. They're like the steady eddies of the market, holding tight through thick and thin.

LTH 是持有比特幣超過 155 天的比特幣投資者。它們就像是市場穩定的漩渦，無論順境或逆境都緊緊抓住。

LTHs vs. STHs

LTH 與 STH

In the Bitcoin world, there's another group of players: short-term holders (STHs). These guys are more like the fair-weather friends, buying and selling on a whim.

在比特幣世界中，還有另一群參與者：短期持有者（STH）。這些人更像是酒肉朋友，隨心所欲地買賣。

Why LTH Distribution Matters

為什麼 LTH 分佈很重要

It's not uncommon for STHs to sell, but when LTHs start distributing their coins, it's like hearing the dinner bell for bears. It's a sign that even the most patient investors are starting to doubt the market.

出售 STH 的情況並不少見，但當 LTH 開始分發他們的代幣時，就像聽到熊的晚餐鈴聲一樣。這表明即使是最有耐心的投資者也開始懷疑市場。

Tracking LTH Behavior

追蹤 LTH 行為

Glassnode uses a metric called the "LTH Market Inflation Rate" to gauge LTH behavior. It shows how much Bitcoin LTHs are buying or selling compared to what miners are issuing.

Glassnode 使用稱為「LTH 市場通膨率」的指標來衡量 LTH 行為。它顯示了與礦工發行的比特幣 LTH 的購買或出售數量相比。

When LTHs Sell, BTC Peaks

當 LTH 賣出時，BTC 見頂

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to peak when the LTH Market Inflation Rate hits its highest point. This suggests that when LTHs start selling, the market is approaching a tipping point.

從歷史上看，當 LTH 市場通膨率達到最高點時，比特幣往往會達到頂峰。這表明，當 LTH 開始出售時，市場正在接近一個臨界點。

Current LTH Activity

目前 LTH 活動

The LTH Market Inflation Rate has been rising lately, but it's not yet at a critical level. Glassnode says we're in the early stages of a distribution cycle, with about 30% completed.

LTH市場通膨率近期一直在上升，但尚未達到臨界水準。 Glassnode 表示，我們正處於分發週期的早期階段，大約已完成 30%。

What This Means for BTC

這對比特幣意味著什麼

If LTHs continue to distribute their coins, it could put pressure on Bitcoin's price. Glassnode warns that we could be approaching a market equilibrium point and potential price tops.

如果 LTH 繼續分發他們的代幣，可能會對比特幣的價格造成壓力。 Glassnode 警告稱，我們可能正在接近市場均衡點和潛在的價格頂部。

BTC Price Today

今日比特幣價格

Bitcoin has lost some of its recent gains, falling to $63,800. The market is watching closely to see if LTHs continue to sell, which could send BTC tumbling further.

比特幣已經失去了近期的部分漲幅，跌至 63,800 美元。市場正在密切關注 LTH 是否繼續拋售，這可能會導致 BTC 進一步暴跌。