比特币和股票市场：相关性的变化暗示投资观念的变化

比特币与标准普尔 500 指数的相关性最近有所增加，表明其作为一种资产类别的看法发生了转变。尽管与标准普尔 500 指数相比，比特币的波动性仍然很高，但近年来其表现已经超越了股指。比特币与科技股之间的正相关性表明科技驱动的市场情绪可能会影响比特币的价格走势。

Bitcoin and the Stock Market: A Shifting Correlation and Its Implications

比特币和股票市场：不断变化的相关性及其影响

Over the past decade, Bitcoin, the decentralized cryptocurrency, has exhibited a correlation with the S&P 500 stock market index, albeit weaker than other alternative assets. This correlation has historically been around 0.17, well below the 0.42 correlation observed between the S&P 500 and the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index during the same period.

在过去的十年中，比特币这种去中心化的加密货币与标准普尔 500 股票市场指数的相关性尽管弱于其他另类资产，但仍表现出相关性。从历史上看，这种相关性一直在 0.17 左右，远低于同期标准普尔 500 指数与标普高盛商品指数之间观察到的 0.42 相关性。

However, the relationship between Bitcoin and the stock market has experienced subtle changes in recent years. While the correlation remained low historically, it has gradually increased over the past five years to 0.41. This shift suggests that Bitcoin is becoming more intertwined with traditional financial markets.

然而，比特币与股市的关系近年来发生了微妙的变化。虽然相关性在历史上一直处于较低水平，但在过去五年中逐渐上升至 0.41。这种转变表明比特币与传统金融市场的联系越来越紧密。

Moreover, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has recently shown significant fluctuations, transitioning from a negative correlation of -0.76 on November 11, 2023, to a positive correlation of 0.57 in January 2024. This shift from negative to positive correlation highlights Bitcoin's evolving perception among investors, potentially reflecting its increasing acceptance as an investment asset.

此外，比特币与标准普尔 500 指数之间的相关性最近出现了显着波动，从 2023 年 11 月 11 日的负相关性 -0.76 转变为 2024 年 1 月的 0.57 正相关性。这种从负相关性到正相关性的转变凸显了比特币的不断演变投资者的看法，可能反映出其作为投资资产的接受程度不断提高。

Comparing Bitcoin and the S&P 500

比特币与标准普尔 500 指数的比较

The S&P 500 is a widely recognized barometer of the U.S. economy, tracking the performance of 500 leading companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. Its stability and diversification across industries make it a preferred investment for risk-averse traders. Historically, holding positions in the S&P 500 with a long-term perspective has yielded annual gains approaching 10%.

标准普尔 500 指数是广泛认可的美国经济晴雨表，追踪美国证券交易所上市的 500 家领先公司的业绩。它的稳定性和跨行业的多元化使其成为规避风险的交易者的首选投资。从历史上看，长期持有标普500指数的年收益接近10%。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is known for its volatility. Its value has experienced significant swings, plummeting over 64% in 2022 before rallying 160% in 2023. This volatility can be challenging for investors to navigate.

另一方面，比特币以其波动性而闻名。其价值经历了大幅波动，2022 年暴跌超过 64%，然后在 2023 年反弹 160%。这种波动对投资者来说可能具有挑战性。

Understanding Correlation

理解相关性

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 can be attributed to several factors, including the declining inflation rate, the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes, and the resulting favorable environment for risk-on trading. These conditions have fostered bull rallies for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500, despite the bearish sentiment following the 2022 correction.

比特币与标准普尔 500 指数之间的相关性可归因于多种因素，包括通胀率下降、美联储决定暂停加息，以及由此带来的风险交易的有利环境。尽管 2022 年调整后出现了看跌情绪，但这些条件促进了比特币和标准普尔 500 指数的牛市反弹。

When Bitcoin's correlation with traditional equity markets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increases, while its correlation with Gold decreases, it suggests that Bitcoin is behaving more like a risk-on asset rather than a safe haven. Investors seeking higher returns often shift towards stocks and digital assets during periods of market confidence.

当比特币与标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克等传统股票市场的相关性增加，而与黄金的相关性下降时，这表明比特币的表现更像是一种风险资产，而不是避险资产。在市场信心旺盛时期，寻求更高回报的投资者往往会转向股票和数字资产。

The simultaneous buy and sell decisions of institutional and retail investors in both equity and cryptocurrency markets can further align the price movements of these assets.

机构投资者和散户投资者在股票和加密货币市场上同时做出的买入和卖出决策可以进一步调整这些资产的价格走势。

Bitcoin's Outperformance and Risk Considerations

比特币的优异表现和风险考虑

In 2023, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500, surging by 160% compared to the S&P 500's 23% gain. However, it is important to remember Bitcoin's volatile nature and its significant 64% crash in 2022, compared to the S&P 500's 19% decline. These contrasting performances emphasize the importance of caution when comparing Bitcoin's volatile gains with the more stable returns of the S&P 500.

2023 年，比特币的表现优于标准普尔 500 指数，飙升 160%，而标准普尔 500 指数涨幅为 23%。然而，重要的是要记住比特币的波动性及其在 2022 年大幅下跌 64%，而标准普尔 500 指数则下跌了 19%。这些对比鲜明的表现强调了在将比特币的波动性收益与标准普尔 500 指数更稳定的回报进行比较时要谨慎的重要性。

Research by Fidelity indicates that Bitcoin has historically provided significant returns, averaging 186.7% annually from August 2010 to August 2022. However, since the launch of the Bitcoin futures market in 2018, its average annual returns have been around 8.8%. While these historical returns suggest potential for high gains, Bitcoin's extreme volatility cannot be overlooked. Investors should be aware of the potential for both dramatic increases and decreases in value.

富达的研究表明，比特币历史上提供了可观的回报，从 2010 年 8 月到 2022 年 8 月，年均回报率为 186.7%。然而，自 2018 年比特币期货市场推出以来，其年均回报率一直在 8.8% 左右。虽然这些历史回报表明比特币具有高收益的潜力，但比特币的极端波动性也不容忽视。投资者应该意识到价值大幅上涨和下跌的潜力。

To gauge Bitcoin's risk, Fidelity conducted simulations adding different amounts of Bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 portfolio. The study found that even a small allocation of Bitcoin significantly increased portfolio volatility. For instance, replacing 1% of stocks or bonds with Bitcoin contributed about 3% to overall portfolio volatility, with risks escalating as allocation levels increased.

为了衡量比特币的风险，富达进行了模拟，将不同数量的比特币添加到传统的 60/40 投资组合中。研究发现，即使是少量的比特币配置也会显着增加投资组合的波动性。例如，用比特币取代 1% 的股票或债券对整体投资组合的波动性造成约 3% 的影响，而随着配置水平的增加，风险也会随之升级。

Tech-Driven Surge and Future Outlook

科技驱动的浪潮与未来展望

Bitcoin's recent price surge aligns with the positive momentum in technology stocks on Wall Street, reflected by the rise in the Nasdaq 100 Index relative to the S&P 500 (NDX-SPX ratio). This positive correlation suggests that movements in technology stocks influence Bitcoin's market. Traders monitoring Bitcoin may track the NDX-SPX ratio for insights.

比特币最近的价格飙升与华尔街科技股的积极势头一致，纳斯达克 100 指数相对于标准普尔 500 指数（NDX-SPX 比率）的上涨反映了这一点。这种正相关性表明科技股的走势影响比特币市场。监控比特币的交易者可以跟踪 NDX-SPX 比率以获得见解。

Despite potential fluctuations, optimism prevails in the crypto market due to factors like the upcoming halving-induced supply reduction and increased ETF demand. These factors fuel predictions of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 and beyond.

尽管存在潜在波动，但由于即将到来的减半导致的供应减少和 ETF 需求增加等因素，加密货币市场仍普遍乐观。这些因素推动了比特币价格达到 15 万美元甚至更高的预测。

Some analysts, like Ali Martinez, suggest that Bitcoin's price trajectory might mirror that of the S&P 500, leading to speculation about an upward trend where Bitcoin moves consistently in one direction. However, it is crucial to approach such predictions with caution, recognizing the inherent volatility and uncertainty associated with cryptocurrency markets.

阿里·马丁内斯 (Ali Martinez) 等一些分析师认为，比特币的价格轨迹可能与标准普尔 500 指数的价格轨迹相似，这引发了人们对比特币持续朝一个方向移动的上升趋势的猜测。然而，认识到与加密货币市场相关的固有波动性和不确定性，谨慎对待此类预测至关重要。