比特幣與股票市場：相關性的變化暗示投資觀念的變化

比特幣與標準普爾 500 指數的相關性最近有所增加，表明其作為資產類別的看法發生了轉變。儘管與標準普爾 500 指數相比，比特幣的波動性仍然很高，但近年來其表現已經超越了股指。比特幣與科技股之間的正相關性表明科技驅動的市場情緒可能會影響比特幣的價格走勢。

Bitcoin and the Stock Market: A Shifting Correlation and Its Implications

比特幣和股票市場：不斷變化的相關性及其影響

Over the past decade, Bitcoin, the decentralized cryptocurrency, has exhibited a correlation with the S&P 500 stock market index, albeit weaker than other alternative assets. This correlation has historically been around 0.17, well below the 0.42 correlation observed between the S&P 500 and the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index during the same period.

在過去的十年中，比特幣這種去中心化的加密貨幣與標準普爾 500 股票市場指數的相關性儘管弱於其他另類資產，但仍表現出相關性。從歷史上看，這種相關性一直在 0.17 左右，遠低於同期標準普爾 500 指數與標普高盛商品指數之間觀察到的 0.42 相關性。

However, the relationship between Bitcoin and the stock market has experienced subtle changes in recent years. While the correlation remained low historically, it has gradually increased over the past five years to 0.41. This shift suggests that Bitcoin is becoming more intertwined with traditional financial markets.

然而，比特幣與股市的關係近年來發生了微妙的變化。雖然相關性在歷史上一直處於較低水平，但在過去五年中逐漸上升至 0.41。這種轉變顯示比特幣與傳統金融市場的連結越來越緊密。

Moreover, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has recently shown significant fluctuations, transitioning from a negative correlation of -0.76 on November 11, 2023, to a positive correlation of 0.57 in January 2024. This shift from negative to positive correlation highlights Bitcoin's evolving perception among investors, potentially reflecting its increasing acceptance as an investment asset.

此外，比特幣與標準普爾500 指數之間的相關性最近出現了顯著波動，從2023 年11 月11 日的負相關性-0.76 轉變為2024 年1 月的0.57 正相關性。這種從負相關性到正相關性的轉變凸顯了比特幣的不斷演變投資者的看法，可能反映出其作為投資資產的接受程度不斷提高。

Comparing Bitcoin and the S&P 500

比特幣與標準普爾 500 指數的比較

The S&P 500 is a widely recognized barometer of the U.S. economy, tracking the performance of 500 leading companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. Its stability and diversification across industries make it a preferred investment for risk-averse traders. Historically, holding positions in the S&P 500 with a long-term perspective has yielded annual gains approaching 10%.

標準普爾 500 指數是廣泛認可的美國經濟晴雨表，追蹤美國證券交易所上市的 500 家領先公司的表現。它的穩定性和跨行業的多元化使其成為規避風險的交易者的首選投資。從歷史上看，長期持有標普500指數的年收益接近10%。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is known for its volatility. Its value has experienced significant swings, plummeting over 64% in 2022 before rallying 160% in 2023. This volatility can be challenging for investors to navigate.

另一方面，比特幣以其波動性而聞名。其價值經歷了大幅波動，2022 年暴跌超過 64%，然後在 2023 年反彈 160%。這種波動對投資者來說可能具有挑戰性。

Understanding Correlation

理解相關性

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 can be attributed to several factors, including the declining inflation rate, the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes, and the resulting favorable environment for risk-on trading. These conditions have fostered bull rallies for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500, despite the bearish sentiment following the 2022 correction.

比特幣與標準普爾 500 指數之間的相關性可歸因於多種因素，包括通膨率下降、聯準會決定暫停升息，以及由此帶來的風險交易的有利環境。儘管 2022 年調整後出現了看跌情緒，但這些條件促進了比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數的牛市反彈。

When Bitcoin's correlation with traditional equity markets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increases, while its correlation with Gold decreases, it suggests that Bitcoin is behaving more like a risk-on asset rather than a safe haven. Investors seeking higher returns often shift towards stocks and digital assets during periods of market confidence.

當比特幣與標準普爾500 指數和納斯達克等傳統股票市場的相關性增加，而與黃金的相關性下降時，這表明比特幣的表現更像是一種風險資產，而不是避險資產。在市場信心旺盛時期，尋求更高報酬的投資人往往會轉向股票和數位資產。

The simultaneous buy and sell decisions of institutional and retail investors in both equity and cryptocurrency markets can further align the price movements of these assets.

機構投資者和散戶投資者在股票和加密貨幣市場上同時做出的買入和賣出決策可以進一步調整這些資產的價格走勢。

Bitcoin's Outperformance and Risk Considerations

比特幣的優異表現和風險考慮

In 2023, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500, surging by 160% compared to the S&P 500's 23% gain. However, it is important to remember Bitcoin's volatile nature and its significant 64% crash in 2022, compared to the S&P 500's 19% decline. These contrasting performances emphasize the importance of caution when comparing Bitcoin's volatile gains with the more stable returns of the S&P 500.

2023 年，比特幣的表現優於標準普爾 500 指數，飆升 160%，而標普 500 指數漲幅為 23%。然而，重要的是要記住比特幣的波動性及其在 2022 年大幅下跌 64%，而標準普爾 500 指數則下跌了 19%。這些對比鮮明的表現強調了在將比特幣的波動性收益與標準普爾 500 指數更穩定的回報進行比較時要謹慎的重要性。

Research by Fidelity indicates that Bitcoin has historically provided significant returns, averaging 186.7% annually from August 2010 to August 2022. However, since the launch of the Bitcoin futures market in 2018, its average annual returns have been around 8.8%. While these historical returns suggest potential for high gains, Bitcoin's extreme volatility cannot be overlooked. Investors should be aware of the potential for both dramatic increases and decreases in value.

富達的研究表明，比特幣歷史上提供了可觀的回報，從2010 年8 月到2022 年8 月，年均回報率為186.7%。然而，自2018 年比特幣期貨市場推出以來，其年均回報率一直在8.8% 左右。雖然這些歷史回報顯示比特幣具有高收益的潛力，但比特幣的極端波動性也不容忽視。投資者應該意識到價值大幅上漲和下跌的潛力。

To gauge Bitcoin's risk, Fidelity conducted simulations adding different amounts of Bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 portfolio. The study found that even a small allocation of Bitcoin significantly increased portfolio volatility. For instance, replacing 1% of stocks or bonds with Bitcoin contributed about 3% to overall portfolio volatility, with risks escalating as allocation levels increased.

為了衡量比特幣的風險，富達進行了模擬，將不同數量的比特幣添加到傳統的 60/40 投資組合中。研究發現，即使是少量的比特幣配置也會顯著增加投資組合的波動性。例如，以比特幣取代 1% 的股票或債券對整體投資組合的波動性造成約 3% 的影響，而隨著配置水準的增加，風險也會隨之升級。

Tech-Driven Surge and Future Outlook

科技驅動的浪潮與未來展望

Bitcoin's recent price surge aligns with the positive momentum in technology stocks on Wall Street, reflected by the rise in the Nasdaq 100 Index relative to the S&P 500 (NDX-SPX ratio). This positive correlation suggests that movements in technology stocks influence Bitcoin's market. Traders monitoring Bitcoin may track the NDX-SPX ratio for insights.

比特幣最近的價格飆升與華爾街科技股的積極勢頭一致，納斯達克 100 指數相對於標準普爾 500 指數（NDX-SPX 比率）的上漲反映了這一點。這種正相關性顯示科技股的走勢影響比特幣市場。監控比特幣的交易者可以追蹤 NDX-SPX 比率以獲得見解。

Despite potential fluctuations, optimism prevails in the crypto market due to factors like the upcoming halving-induced supply reduction and increased ETF demand. These factors fuel predictions of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 and beyond.

儘管存在潛在波動，但由於即將到來的減半導致的供應減少和 ETF 需求增加等因素，加密貨幣市場仍普遍樂觀。這些因素推動了比特幣價格達到 15 萬美元甚至更高的預測。

Some analysts, like Ali Martinez, suggest that Bitcoin's price trajectory might mirror that of the S&P 500, leading to speculation about an upward trend where Bitcoin moves consistently in one direction. However, it is crucial to approach such predictions with caution, recognizing the inherent volatility and uncertainty associated with cryptocurrency markets.

阿里·馬丁內斯 (Ali Martinez) 等一些分析師認為，比特幣的價格軌跡可能與標準普爾 500 指數的價格軌跡相似，這引發了人們對比特幣持續朝一個方向移動的上升趨勢的猜測。然而，認識到與加密貨幣市場相關的固有波動性和不確定性，謹慎對待此類預測至關重要。