在降息放缓的猜测中，比特币保持稳定

经过一年多的连续加息，美联储（Fed）于9月启动降息，降息50个基点。

Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 18, global equity market indices have experienced a slight downturn. However, Bitcoin (BTC) has held steady, trading in the mid-$90,000 range at the time of writing.

12月18日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后，全球股市指数小幅下滑。然而，比特币 (BTC) 一直保持稳定，在撰写本文时交易价格在 90,000 美元中间。

After over a year of consecutive interest rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) began cutting rates in September, reducing them by 50 basis points. This sparked optimism in both crypto and equity markets, which rallied in anticipation of a dovish monetary policy that would be favorable to risk-on assets.

经过一年多的连续加息，美联储（Fed）于9月开始降息，降息50个基点。这引发了加密货币和股票市场的乐观情绪，由于预期温和的货币政策将有利于风险资产，因此股市上涨。

However, according to a report by K33 Research, the December 18 FOMC meeting has cast some doubt on regular rate cuts, as Fed chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a slower pace of monetary easing in 2025. The Fed’s decision to go slow with interest rate cuts is largely due to potential inflationary pressures associated with Trump’s presidency.

然而，K33 Research的报告显示，12月18日的FOMC会议对定期降息产生了一些疑问，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示2025年货币宽松步伐将放缓。美联储决定缓慢降息很大程度上是由于与特朗普总统任期相关的潜在通胀压力。

As a result, the S&P 500 – a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest US-listed companies – has dropped by 2.55% over the past month. Despite this pullback in equities, Bitcoin has shown resilience, reflecting its status as an emerging asset class.

结果，追踪美国最大 500 家上市公司业绩的标准普尔 500 指数在过去一个月下跌了 2.55%。尽管股市出现回调，但比特币仍表现出韧性，反映出其作为新兴资产类别的地位。

Commenting on the development, Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, said the December 18 FOMC meeting served as the catalyst for the recent downturn. Lunde added:

K33 Research 研究主管 Vetle Lunde 在评论事态发展时表示，12 月 18 日的 FOMC 会议是近期经济低迷的催化剂。伦德补充道：

“The past two weeks following the FOMC have been met by global de-risking, with bitcoin facing negative two-week returns of 11%, while ether has dropped by 15%, pushing the ETH/BTC down toward 0.036.”

“FOMC 过去两周，全球都在去风险化，比特币两周回报率为 11%，而以太币则下跌了 15%，推动 ETH/BTC 跌至 0.036。”

While an 11% drop in Bitcoin’s price is significant, it is relatively modest in the context of Bitcoin’s historical performance. During bull runs, pullbacks ranging from 20% to 30% are common for the leading cryptocurrency, with altcoins often experiencing even sharper declines before rebounding.

虽然比特币价格下跌 11% 的幅度很大，但从比特币的历史表现来看，这一跌幅相对较小。在牛市期间，领先的加密货币通常会出现 20% 至 30% 的回调，而山寨币在反弹之前往往会经历更大幅度的下跌。

Lunde also noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq has climbed above 0.5 for the first time since September, indicating that Bitcoin is increasingly mirroring the movements of traditional tech-heavy equity markets.

Lunde 还指出，比特币与纳斯达克指数的 30 天相关性自 9 月份以来首次攀升至 0.5 以上，这表明比特币越来越多地反映传统科技股市场的走势。

Market Braces For Inflation Under Trump

市场为特朗普领导下的通胀做好准备

Despite the Fed cutting interest rates by 100 basis points since September, markets remain cautious about persistent inflation, a concern that is evident from the 100-basis-point rise in 10-year Treasury yields.

尽管美联储自9月以来已降息100个基点，但市场对持续通胀仍持谨慎态度，这一担忧从10年期国债收益率上涨100个基点就可见一斑。

This is also supported by crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes’ prediction that the flagship cryptocurrency may witness a “harrowing dump” around Trump’s inauguration. Furthermore, on-chain analysis suggests that BTC may face a sharp correction to $80,000.

加密货币企业家阿瑟·海耶斯(Arthur Hayes)的预测也支持了这一点，即旗舰加密货币可能会在特朗普就职典礼前后见证“悲惨的转储”。此外，链上分析表明，BTC 可能面临大幅回调至 80,000 美元。

However, many industry experts maintain that Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact. At press time, BTC trades at $94,805, up by 2.6% in the past 24 hours.

然而，许多行业专家坚持认为，比特币的长期看涨前景仍然完好无损。截至发稿，BTC 交易价格为 94,805 美元，过去 24 小时上涨 2.6%。