在降息放緩的猜測中，比特幣保持穩定

經過一年多的連續升息，聯準會（Fed）9月啟動降息，降息50個基點。

Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 18, global equity market indices have experienced a slight downturn. However, Bitcoin (BTC) has held steady, trading in the mid-$90,000 range at the time of writing.

12月18日聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議後，全球股市指數小幅下滑。然而，比特幣 (BTC) 一直保持穩定，在撰寫本文時交易價格在 90,000 美元中間。

After over a year of consecutive interest rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) began cutting rates in September, reducing them by 50 basis points. This sparked optimism in both crypto and equity markets, which rallied in anticipation of a dovish monetary policy that would be favorable to risk-on assets.

經過一年多的連續升息，聯準會（Fed）9月開始降息，降息50個基點。這引發了加密貨幣和股票市場的樂觀情緒，由於預期溫和的貨幣政策將有利於風險資產，因此股市上漲。

However, according to a report by K33 Research, the December 18 FOMC meeting has cast some doubt on regular rate cuts, as Fed chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a slower pace of monetary easing in 2025. The Fed’s decision to go slow with interest rate cuts is largely due to potential inflationary pressures associated with Trump’s presidency.

然而，K33 Research的報告顯示，12月18日的FOMC會議對定期降息產生了一些疑問，聯準會主席鮑威爾暗示2025年貨幣寬鬆步伐將放緩。總統任期相關的潛在通膨壓力。

As a result, the S&P 500 – a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest US-listed companies – has dropped by 2.55% over the past month. Despite this pullback in equities, Bitcoin has shown resilience, reflecting its status as an emerging asset class.

結果，追蹤美國最大 500 家上市公司業績的標準普爾 500 指數在過去一個月下跌了 2.55%。儘管股市出現回調，但比特幣仍表現出韌性，反映出其作為新興資產類別的地位。

Commenting on the development, Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, said the December 18 FOMC meeting served as the catalyst for the recent downturn. Lunde added:

K33 Research 研究主管 Vetle Lunde 在評論事態發展時表示，12 月 18 日的 FOMC 會議是近期經濟低迷的催化劑。倫德補充道：

“The past two weeks following the FOMC have been met by global de-risking, with bitcoin facing negative two-week returns of 11%, while ether has dropped by 15%, pushing the ETH/BTC down toward 0.036.”

「FOMC 過去兩週，全球都在去風險化，比特幣兩週回報率為 11%，而以太幣則下跌了 15%，推動 ETH/BTC 跌至 0.036。”

While an 11% drop in Bitcoin’s price is significant, it is relatively modest in the context of Bitcoin’s historical performance. During bull runs, pullbacks ranging from 20% to 30% are common for the leading cryptocurrency, with altcoins often experiencing even sharper declines before rebounding.

雖然比特幣價格下跌 11% 的幅度很大，但從比特幣的歷史表現來看，這一跌幅相對較小。在多頭市場期間，領先的加密貨幣通常會出現 20% 至 30% 的回調，而山寨幣在反彈之前往往會經歷更大幅度的下跌。

Lunde also noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq has climbed above 0.5 for the first time since September, indicating that Bitcoin is increasingly mirroring the movements of traditional tech-heavy equity markets.

Lunde 也指出，比特幣與納斯達克指數的 30 天相關性自 9 月以來首次攀升至 0.5 以上，這表明比特幣越來越多地反映傳統科技股市場的走勢。

Market Braces For Inflation Under Trump

市場為川普領導下的通膨做好準備

Despite the Fed cutting interest rates by 100 basis points since September, markets remain cautious about persistent inflation, a concern that is evident from the 100-basis-point rise in 10-year Treasury yields.

儘管聯準會自9月以來已降息100個基點，但市場對持續通膨仍持謹慎態度，這項擔憂從10年期公債殖利率上漲100個基點就可見一斑。

This is also supported by crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes’ prediction that the flagship cryptocurrency may witness a “harrowing dump” around Trump’s inauguration. Furthermore, on-chain analysis suggests that BTC may face a sharp correction to $80,000.

加密貨幣企業家阿瑟·海耶斯(Arthur Hayes)的預測也支持了這一點，即旗艦加密貨幣可能會在川普就職典禮前後見證「悲慘的轉儲」。此外，鏈上分析表明，BTC 可能面臨大幅回調至 80,000 美元。

However, many industry experts maintain that Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact. At press time, BTC trades at $94,805, up by 2.6% in the past 24 hours.

然而，許多行業專家堅持認為，比特幣的長期看漲前景仍然完好無損。截至發稿，BTC 交易價格為 94,805 美元，過去 24 小時上漲 2.6%。