中东紧张局势震动市场，比特币投机者面临现实检验

- 随着中东紧张局势加剧，全球市场变得谨慎起来，寄希望于 10 月份季节性熔断的比特币投机者面临着早期的现实检验。

Bitcoin fell the most in almost a month on Tuesday as deepening tension in the Middle East drove a bout of caution across global markets.

周二，由于中东紧张局势加剧，全球市场出现谨慎情绪，比特币出现近一个月来最大跌幅。

The digital asset dropped about 4% in the first two days of October, a contrast with its average 20% climb over the month as a whole in the past decade.

该数字资产在 10 月的前两天下跌了约 4%，而过去十年该数字资产在整个月的平均涨幅为 20%。

Bitcoin speculators banking on a seasonal October meltup are facing an early reality check as deepening tension in the Middle East drives a bout of caution across global markets.

随着中东紧张局势的加剧导致全球市场出现谨慎态度，寄希望于 10 月份季节性熔断的比特币投机者面临着早期的现实检验。

The digital asset fell the most in almost a month on Tuesday after Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in a sharp but brief escalation of hostilities between the two adversaries. The token steadied around $61,000 in Asian trading on Wednesday amid mixed performance in the wider crypto market.

周二，伊朗向以色列发射了约 200 枚弹道导弹，导致两个对手之间的敌对行动急剧但短暂升级，该数字资产跌幅近一个月来最大。由于整个加密货币市场表现参差不齐，该代币周三在亚洲交易中稳定在 61,000 美元左右。

Bitcoin has shed about 4% in the first two days of October, a contrast with its average 20% climb over the month as a whole in the past decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That seasonal cue had some traders anticipating a lift past March’s record high of $73,798, until arguably the biggest geopolitical fault-line in global markets poured some cold water on the optimists.

根据彭博社汇编的数据，比特币在 10 月的前两天下跌了约 4%，而过去 10 年整个月的平均涨幅为 20%。这一季节性暗示让一些交易员预计金价将突破 3 月份历史高点 73,798 美元，直到全球市场最大的地缘政治断层线给乐观主义者泼了一盆冷水。

Sean McNulty, director of trading at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets, argued that the selloff is a “momentary setback” given that the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates. The government that emerges after November’s US presidential election is also likely to be friendlier toward crypto, he said.

流动性提供商 Arbelos Markets 的交易总监肖恩·麦克纳尔蒂 (Sean McNulty) 认为，鉴于美联储已开始降息，此次抛售只是“暂时的挫折”。他表示，11 月美国总统大选后出现的政府也可能对加密货币更加友好。

“The seasonal trend of October being the best month for Bitcoin is alive and well,” McNulty added.

“十月是比特币最好月份的季节性趋势仍然存在，”麦克纳尔蒂补充道。

For now, markets are on alert for intensifying conflict as they parse Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow to retaliate against Iran’s strikes. US equity futures wavered Wednesday, while oil prices rose on supply fears.

目前，市场对冲突加剧保持警惕，因为他们正在分析以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡对伊朗袭击进行报复的誓言。周三美国股指期货波动，而油价因供应担忧而上涨。

Digital assets of late have moved more in tandem with stocks, indicating macroeconomic drivers like the Fed monetary policy outlook are key for Bitcoin at the moment. A 50-day correlation coefficient for a gauge of the top 100 digital tokens and MSCI Inc.’s global equity index is at 0.65, the highest since 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A reading of 1 indicates assets are moving in lockstep, while minus 1 signals an inverse tie.

最近，数字资产与股票的走势更加同步，这表明美联储货币政策前景等宏观经济驱动因素目前对比特币至关重要。根据彭博社汇编的数据，排名前 100 名的数字代币与 MSCI Inc. 全球股票指数的 50 天相关系数为 0.65，为 2022 年以来的最高水平。读数为 1 表示资产正在同步移动，而负 1 则表示反向平局。

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

©2024 彭博社