由于宏观力量的影响，比特币在减半前暴跌

在备受期待的减半事件发生之前，比特币的价格已暴跌超过 17%。分析师将这一下降归因于减半前的历史趋势、美联储降息预期的修正以及链上数据。顶级分析师马库斯·蒂伦（Markus Thielen）表示，下周消费者价格指数（CPI）数据的发布将对市场产生比减半更大的影响，凸显宏观因素在决定比特币价格轨迹方面日益重要。

Bitcoin Slumps Amidst Halving Countdown, Macroeconomic Factors Emerge as Dominant Force

比特币减半倒计时暴跌，宏观经济因素成为主导力量

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event draws near, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) shedding over 17% of its value. Market analysts have attributed this decline to a confluence of factors, including historical pre-halving price drops, adjustments in expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and on-chain data indicators.

随着备受期待的比特币减半事件的临近，加密货币市场出现大幅下滑，比特币 (BTC) 价值缩水超过 17%。市场分析师将这一下降归因于多种因素的综合作用，包括减半前的历史价格下跌、美联储利率政策预期的调整以及链上数据指标。

Markus Thielen, a leading crypto analyst and CEO of research firm 10x Research, has cautioned that next week's data release will hold more weight in determining market direction than the halving event itself.

领先的加密货币分析师兼研究公司 10x Research 首席执行官马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 警告称，下周的数据发布在决定市场方向方面将比减半事件本身更重要。

Historical Precedents and Macroeconomic Influences

历史先例和宏观经济影响

Thielen highlighted the historical pattern of Bitcoin experiencing price declines in the lead-up to halving events. This is attributed to profit-taking and anticipation of selling pressure from miners who are forced to divest their holdings due to the halving's impact on their revenue stream.

蒂伦强调了比特币在减半事件之前经历价格下跌的历史模式。这是由于矿商的获利了结和抛售压力的预期，由于减半对其收入流的影响，矿商被迫出售其所持股份。

Furthermore, macroeconomic factors have taken center stage in influencing Bitcoin's price trajectory. The recent release of stronger-than-expected manufacturing data in the United States has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may not pursue an aggressive easing policy in June, as previously anticipated. This shift in sentiment has strengthened the US dollar and driven up Treasury yields, both of which have an inverse relationship with Bitcoin's price.

此外，宏观经济因素已成为影响比特币价格轨迹的中心舞台。近期美国公布的强于预期的制造业数据引发市场猜测，美联储可能不会像此前预期的那样在6月份推行激进的宽松政策。这种情绪的转变推高了美元并推高了美国国债收益率，这两者都与比特币的价格成反比关系。

CPI Data Release Takes Center Stage

CPI数据发布成为焦点

In a recent report, Thielen emphasized that the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release next Wednesday, April 10, will be pivotal for Bitcoin's price direction. The CPI measures the rate of inflation, and recent data has shown a rise in both the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and the Producer Price Index (PPI).

Thielen 在最近的一份报告中强调，即将于 4 月 10 日下周三发布的消费者价格指数 (CPI) 数据将对比特币的价格走向至关重要。 CPI衡量通货膨胀率，最近的数据显示个人消费支出（PCE）指数和生产者价格指数（PPI）均有所上升。

If the CPI data exceeds market expectations, it could further strengthen the dollar and raise Treasury yields, potentially leading to further depreciation in Bitcoin's value.

如果CPI数据超出市场​​预期，可能会进一步推高美元并提高美国国债收益率，从而可能导致比特币价值进一步贬值。

Technical Indicators Point to Further Decline

技术指标显示进一步下跌

10x Research predicts that Bitcoin could fall back to $62,000 and Ethereum (ETH) could drop to $3,100 in the coming days. The analysts cite low trading volumes and key technical levels that need to be broken for a bullish reversal. Bitcoin faces resistance at $68,330, while Ethereum encounters resistance at $3,460.

10x Research 预测，未来几天比特币可能回落至 62,000 美元，以太坊 (ETH) 可能跌至 3,100 美元。分析师指出，交易量较低且关键技术水平需要被突破才能实现看涨逆转。比特币在 68,330 美元面临阻力，而以太坊在 3,460 美元遇到阻力。

CME Gap and Bullish Order Book

CME 缺口和看涨订单簿

Additionally, Bitcoin has a CME gap near $63,500 that needs to be filled. A CME gap occurs when there is a significant difference between the closing price on one trading day and the opening price on the next. Filling this gap is considered a bullish signal, as it signifies strong buying pressure.

此外，比特币在 CME 的缺口接近 63,500 美元，需要填补。当一个交易日的收盘价与下一个交易日的开盘价之间存在显着差异时，就会出现 CME 缺口。填补这一缺口被认为是看涨信号，因为它意味着强劲的购买压力。

Conclusion

结论

The Bitcoin halving event, once seen as a catalyst for a bull market, is now taking a backseat to macroeconomic factors and technical indicators. Analysts believe that next week's CPI data release will provide crucial insights into the future direction of the market, while technical levels and trading patterns suggest the possibility of further declines in the near term.

比特币减半事件曾一度被视为牛市的催化剂，但现在却让位于宏观经济因素和技术指标。分析师认为，下周公布的CPI数据将为市场未来走向提供重要见解，而技术层面和交易模式表明近期可能进一步下跌。