由於宏觀力量的影響，比特幣在減半前暴跌

在備受期待的減半事件發生之前，比特幣的價格已暴跌超過 17%。分析師將這一下降歸因於減半前的歷史趨勢、聯準會降息預期的修正以及鏈上數據。頂級分析師馬庫斯·蒂倫（Markus Thielen）表示，下週消費者物價指數（CPI）數據的發布將對市場產生比減半更大的影響，凸顯宏觀因素在決定比特幣價格軌跡方面日益重要。

Bitcoin Slumps Amidst Halving Countdown, Macroeconomic Factors Emerge as Dominant Force

比特幣減半倒數暴跌，宏觀經濟因素成為主導力量

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event draws near, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) shedding over 17% of its value. Market analysts have attributed this decline to a confluence of factors, including historical pre-halving price drops, adjustments in expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and on-chain data indicators.

隨著備受期待的比特幣減半事件的臨近，加密貨幣市場大幅下滑，比特幣 (BTC) 價值縮水超過 17%。市場分析師將這一下降歸因於多種因素的綜合作用，包括減半前的歷史價格下跌、聯準會利率政策預期的調整以及鏈上數據指標。

Markus Thielen, a leading crypto analyst and CEO of research firm 10x Research, has cautioned that next week's data release will hold more weight in determining market direction than the halving event itself.

領先的加密貨幣分析師兼研究公司 10x Research 執行長 Markus Thielen 警告稱，下週的數據發佈在決定市場方向方面將比減半事件本身更重要。

Historical Precedents and Macroeconomic Influences

歷史先例和宏觀經濟影響

Thielen highlighted the historical pattern of Bitcoin experiencing price declines in the lead-up to halving events. This is attributed to profit-taking and anticipation of selling pressure from miners who are forced to divest their holdings due to the halving's impact on their revenue stream.

蒂倫強調了比特幣在減半事件之前經歷價格下跌的歷史模式。這是由於礦商的獲利了結和拋售壓力的預期，由於減半對其收入流的影響，礦商被迫出售其所持股份。

Furthermore, macroeconomic factors have taken center stage in influencing Bitcoin's price trajectory. The recent release of stronger-than-expected manufacturing data in the United States has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may not pursue an aggressive easing policy in June, as previously anticipated. This shift in sentiment has strengthened the US dollar and driven up Treasury yields, both of which have an inverse relationship with Bitcoin's price.

此外，宏觀經濟因素已成為影響比特幣價格軌跡的中心舞台。近期美國公佈的強於預期的製造業數據引發市場猜測，聯準會可能不會像先前預期的那樣在6月推行激進的寬鬆政策。這種情緒的轉變推高了美元並推高了美國國債收益率，這兩者都與比特幣的價格成反比關係。

CPI Data Release Takes Center Stage

CPI數據發布成為焦點

In a recent report, Thielen emphasized that the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release next Wednesday, April 10, will be pivotal for Bitcoin's price direction. The CPI measures the rate of inflation, and recent data has shown a rise in both the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and the Producer Price Index (PPI).

Thielen 在最近的一份報告中強調，即將於 4 月 10 日下週三發布的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 數據將對比特幣的價格走向至關重要。 CPI衡量通貨膨脹率，最近的數據顯示個人消費支出（PCE）指數和生產者物價指數（PPI）均有所上升。

If the CPI data exceeds market expectations, it could further strengthen the dollar and raise Treasury yields, potentially leading to further depreciation in Bitcoin's value.

如果CPI數據超出市場預期，可能會進一步推高美元並提高美國公債殖利率，可能導致比特幣價值進一步貶值。

Technical Indicators Point to Further Decline

技術指標顯示進一步下跌

10x Research predicts that Bitcoin could fall back to $62,000 and Ethereum (ETH) could drop to $3,100 in the coming days. The analysts cite low trading volumes and key technical levels that need to be broken for a bullish reversal. Bitcoin faces resistance at $68,330, while Ethereum encounters resistance at $3,460.

10x Research 預測，未來幾天比特幣可能回落至 62,000 美元，以太幣 (ETH) 可能會跌至 3,100 美元。分析師指出，交易量較低且關鍵技術水準需要突破才能實現看漲逆轉。比特幣在 68,330 美元面臨阻力，而以太幣在 3,460 美元遇到阻力。

CME Gap and Bullish Order Book

CME 缺口和看漲訂單簿

Additionally, Bitcoin has a CME gap near $63,500 that needs to be filled. A CME gap occurs when there is a significant difference between the closing price on one trading day and the opening price on the next. Filling this gap is considered a bullish signal, as it signifies strong buying pressure.

此外，比特幣在 CME 的缺口接近 63,500 美元，需要填補。當一個交易日的收盤價與下一個交易日的開盤價之間存在顯著差異時，就會出現 CME 缺口。填補這一缺口被認為是看漲訊號，因為它意味著強勁的購買壓力。

Conclusion

結論

The Bitcoin halving event, once seen as a catalyst for a bull market, is now taking a backseat to macroeconomic factors and technical indicators. Analysts believe that next week's CPI data release will provide crucial insights into the future direction of the market, while technical levels and trading patterns suggest the possibility of further declines in the near term.

比特幣減半事件曾經被視為多頭市場的催化劑，但現在卻讓位給宏觀經濟因素和技術指標。分析師認為，下周公布的CPI數據將為市場未來走向提供重要見解，而技術層面和交易模式顯示近期可能進一步下跌。