当黄金和政府债券未能通过测试未能使比特币的避风港潜力检查

“避风港”资产的想法（以黄金和政府债券为标志）是市场动荡的，从未像以前一样进行测试。

The concept of "safe haven" assets, traditionally associated with gold and government bonds amid market turmoil, is being examined more closely than ever before.

传统上与市场动荡的黄金和政府债券相关的“避风港”资产的概念比以往任何时候都更加仔细。

For decades, portfolio construction and risk management were simple: 60% equities, 40% bonds and when markets panicked, capital typically flowed into gold and government bonds. These assets were slow, steady, and predictable, making them an ideal safe haven for investors seeking protection against volatility. But in today’s world of 24/7 markets, geopolitical instability, and rising distrust in sovereign systems, have turned that logic on its head, asking the question: does the definition of a safe haven need a refresh?

几十年来，投资组合建设和风险管理很简单：60％的股票，40％的债券以及当市场惊慌失措时，资本通常流入黄金和政府债券。这些资产缓慢，稳定且可预测，使其成为寻求保护避免波动性的投资者的理想避风港。但是，在当今24/7市场的世界中，地缘政治不稳定以及对主权系统的不信任，已经将这种逻辑转向了头脑，问一个问题：避风港的定义是否需要刷新？

Enter the new kid in the block: bitcoin.

在街区中输入新孩子：比特币。

It is highly volatile, widely misunderstood, and often dismissed as a speculative asset by many corners of Wall Street and Main Street. Yet, it has staged an extraordinary run since the COVID-19 market lows.

这是高度动荡的，被广泛误解，并且经常被华尔街和大街的许多角落被视为投机资产。但是，自Covid-19市场低点以来，它已经进行了非凡的跑步。

It’s up over 1,000% since the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020. During that same period, long-duration bonds—measured via iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)—are down 50% from their 2020 highs. Even gold, the true and tried safe haven asset—up 90% over five years—looks less impressive when adjusted for monetary debasement, which saw, in 2020 alone, over 40% of the total USD money supply being printed.

自2020年3月的Covid-19市场崩溃以来，它上升了超过1,000％。在同一时期，长期债券（通过Ishares 20岁以上的财政债券ETF（TLT）进行测量）比其2020年高点下降了50％。即使是金牌，五年来的真实和尝试的避风港资产（在五年内占90％），在调整金钱贬值时，人们的印象也不太令人印象深刻，仅在2020年，它就看到了印刷的总货币供应总额的40％以上。

Still, bitcoin’s safe haven credential remains contested by investors.

尽管如此，比特币的避风港证书仍然受到投资者的争议。

In several recent risk-off events, it acted less like a hedge and more like a high-beta risk asset against the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF.

在最近的一些风险事件中，它的作用不像对冲，而更像是针对Invesco QQQ Trust，Series 1 ETF的高β风险资产。

The first three examples show bitcoin as a kind of leveraged tech trade. But the most recent tariff shock broke the pattern — bitcoin dropped less than the Nasdaq, showing relative strength in an otherwise weak macro environment spurred by President Trump’s tariffs.

前三个例子显示比特币是一种杠杆技术交易。但是最近的关税冲击打破了这种模式 - 比特币下降了纳斯达克股票，在特朗普总统的关税刺激的原本较弱的宏观环境中显示了相对的力量。

While these data points may not make a trend, this evolving behavior highlights a broader phenomenon: the global financial backdrop has changed.

尽管这些数据点可能不会趋于趋势，但这种不断发展的行为突出了一个更广泛的现象：全球财务背景已经改变。

“Non-sovereign stores of value, like bitcoin, should do well," said NYDIG Research in a note. "Politically neutral assets are exempt from the global machinations at play right now.”

Nydig Research在一份注释中说：“像比特币这样的价值的非主张商店应该做得很好。” “政治中立的资产免于目前发挥作用的全球阴谋。”

Bitcoin is volatile, yes, but it is also globally liquid, decentralized, censorship-resistant, and immune to tariffs or central bank policy. In an era of geopolitical tension and financial repression, those attributes start to make the asset look more enduring than other safe havens.

比特币是波动的，是的，但它也是全球液体，分散，耐心的，耐心，不受关税或中央银行政策的影响。在地缘政治紧张和经济镇压的时代，这些属性开始使资产看起来比其他避风港更持久。

Meanwhile, traditional safe havens aren’t looking so safe. Gold’s gains look less impressive when weighed against the scale of monetary expansion. Long-duration bonds aren't faring much better either as the 30-year treasury yield approaches 5%, making them painful for duration-heavy portfolios.

同时，传统的安全避风港看起来并不那么安全。当权衡货币扩张规模时，黄金的收益看起来不那么令人印象深刻。由于30年的财政收益率接近5％，因此长期债券的表现并不好得多，这使得它们对持续时间繁重的投资组合感到痛苦。

Since the sell-off began last Thursday, the Nasdaq has dropped nearly 10%, bitcoin is down 6%, TLT has fallen over 4%, and gold has slipped more than 3%. Meanwhile, the DXY index — which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies — remains relatively flat, while the all-important U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged nearly 8%.

自从上周四抛售开始以来，纳斯达克股票下降了近10％，比特币下降了6％，TLT下降了4％以上，黄金跌幅超过3％。同时，DXY指数（跟踪一篮子外币的美元）仍然相对平坦，而美国最重要的10年财政收益率却飙升了近8％。

On a risk-adjusted basis, bitcoin is holding its ground—performing no worse than traditional safe-haven assets like gold or TLT.

在风险调整的基础上，比特币持有地面 - 绩效不比传统的避风港资产（如黄金或TLT）差。

Looking at these four major crisis events, a pattern emerges: : each sell-off in bitcoin has marked a significant long-term bottom. During the COVID crash, BTC dropped to ~$4,000 — a level never seen again. In the March 2023 banking crisis, it briefly fell below $20,000 before resuming its climb. The August 2024 yen carry trade unwinding brought it down to $49,000 — again, a level that hasn’t returned. If history is any guide, wherever this current low takes us, it may well establish the next long-term floor.

从这四个重大的危机事件中，出现了一个模式：：比特币中的每个抛售都标志着长期的底层。在Covid崩溃期间，BTC降至约4,000美元，这是一个从未见过的水平。在2023年3月的银行危机中，它在恢复攀登之前短暂低于20,000美元。 2024年8月的日元携带贸易放松销售，将其降至49,000美元 - 再次，这一水平尚未返回。如果历史记录是任何指南，那么无论目前的低点将我们带到我们的地方，都可以建立下一个长期的楼层。

So, is Bitcoin a safe haven?

那么，比特币是避风港吗？

If the old framing — low volatility and downside protection during a panic — still holds, then BTC falls short.

如果旧的框架（在恐慌中的低波动性和下行保护）仍然保持不变，那么BTC就会不足。

But in a financial world dominated by sovereign risk, inflation, and constant policy uncertainty, bitcoin starts to look more like an asset that investors might need to consider for durability, neutrality and liquidity.

但是，在由主权风险，通货膨胀和持续的政策不确定性主导的金融界中，比特币看起来更像是投资者可能需要考虑耐用性，中立性和流动性的资产。

In this evolving landscape, maybe bitcoin isn’t failing the safe haven test. Maybe the old playbook of what safe haven is, needs to change.

在这种不断发展的景观中，也许比特币并没有使避风港测试失败。也许是《避风港是什么》的旧剧本，需要改变。