當黃金和政府債券未能通過測試未能使比特幣的避風港潛力檢查

“避風港”資產的想法（以黃金和政府債券為標誌）是市場動蕩的，從未像以前一樣進行測試。

The concept of "safe haven" assets, traditionally associated with gold and government bonds amid market turmoil, is being examined more closely than ever before.

傳統上與市場動蕩的黃金和政府債券相關的“避風港”資產的概念比以往任何時候都更加仔細。

For decades, portfolio construction and risk management were simple: 60% equities, 40% bonds and when markets panicked, capital typically flowed into gold and government bonds. These assets were slow, steady, and predictable, making them an ideal safe haven for investors seeking protection against volatility. But in today’s world of 24/7 markets, geopolitical instability, and rising distrust in sovereign systems, have turned that logic on its head, asking the question: does the definition of a safe haven need a refresh?

幾十年來，投資組合建設和風險管理很簡單：60％的股票，40％的債券以及當市場驚慌失措時，資本通常流入黃金和政府債券。這些資產緩慢，穩定且可預測，使其成為尋求保護避免波動性的投資者的理想避風港。但是，在當今24/7市場的世界中，地緣政治不穩定以及對主權系統的不信任，已經將這種邏輯轉向了頭腦，問一個問題：避風港的定義是否需要刷新？

Enter the new kid in the block: bitcoin.

在街區中輸入新孩子：比特幣。

It is highly volatile, widely misunderstood, and often dismissed as a speculative asset by many corners of Wall Street and Main Street. Yet, it has staged an extraordinary run since the COVID-19 market lows.

這是高度動蕩的，被廣泛誤解，並且經常被華爾街和大街的許多角落被視為投機資產。但是，自Covid-19市場低點以來，它已經進行了非凡的跑步。

It’s up over 1,000% since the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020. During that same period, long-duration bonds—measured via iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)—are down 50% from their 2020 highs. Even gold, the true and tried safe haven asset—up 90% over five years—looks less impressive when adjusted for monetary debasement, which saw, in 2020 alone, over 40% of the total USD money supply being printed.

自2020年3月的Covid-19市場崩潰以來，它上升了超過1,000％。在同一時期，長期債券（通過Ishares 20歲以上的財政債券ETF（TLT）進行測量）比其2020年高點下降了50％。即使是金牌，五年來的真實和嘗試的避風港資產（在五年內佔90％），在調整金錢貶值時，人們的印像也不太令人印象深刻，僅在2020年，它就看到了印刷的總貨幣供應總額的40％以上。

Still, bitcoin’s safe haven credential remains contested by investors.

儘管如此，比特幣的避風港證書仍然受到投資者的爭議。

In several recent risk-off events, it acted less like a hedge and more like a high-beta risk asset against the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF.

在最近的一些風險事件中，它的作用不像對沖，而更像是針對Invesco QQQ Trust，Series 1 ETF的高β風險資產。

The first three examples show bitcoin as a kind of leveraged tech trade. But the most recent tariff shock broke the pattern — bitcoin dropped less than the Nasdaq, showing relative strength in an otherwise weak macro environment spurred by President Trump’s tariffs.

前三個例子顯示比特幣是一種槓桿技術交易。但是最近的關稅衝擊打破了這種模式 - 比特幣下降了納斯達克股票，在特朗普總統的關稅刺激的原本較弱的宏觀環境中顯示了相對的力量。

While these data points may not make a trend, this evolving behavior highlights a broader phenomenon: the global financial backdrop has changed.

儘管這些數據點可能不會趨於趨勢，但這種不斷發展的行為突出了一個更廣泛的現象：全球財務背景已經改變。

“Non-sovereign stores of value, like bitcoin, should do well," said NYDIG Research in a note. "Politically neutral assets are exempt from the global machinations at play right now.”

Nydig Research在一份註釋中說：“像比特幣這樣的價值的非主張商店應該做得很好。” “政治中立的資產免於目前發揮作用的全球陰謀。”

Bitcoin is volatile, yes, but it is also globally liquid, decentralized, censorship-resistant, and immune to tariffs or central bank policy. In an era of geopolitical tension and financial repression, those attributes start to make the asset look more enduring than other safe havens.

比特幣是波動的，是的，但它也是全球液體，分散，耐心的，耐心，不受關稅或中央銀行政策的影響。在地緣政治緊張和經濟鎮壓的時代，這些屬性開始使資產看起來比其他避風港更持久。

Meanwhile, traditional safe havens aren’t looking so safe. Gold’s gains look less impressive when weighed against the scale of monetary expansion. Long-duration bonds aren't faring much better either as the 30-year treasury yield approaches 5%, making them painful for duration-heavy portfolios.

同時，傳統的安全避風港看起來並不那麼安全。當權衡貨幣擴張規模時，黃金的收益看起來不那麼令人印象深刻。由於30年的財政收益率接近5％，因此長期債券的表現並不好得多，這使得它們對持續時間繁重的投資組合感到痛苦。

Since the sell-off began last Thursday, the Nasdaq has dropped nearly 10%, bitcoin is down 6%, TLT has fallen over 4%, and gold has slipped more than 3%. Meanwhile, the DXY index — which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies — remains relatively flat, while the all-important U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged nearly 8%.

自從上週四拋售開始以來，納斯達克股票下降了近10％，比特幣下降了6％，TLT下降了4％以上，黃金跌幅超過3％。同時，DXY指數（跟踪一籃子外幣的美元）仍然相對平坦，而美國最重要的10年財政收益率卻飆升了近8％。

On a risk-adjusted basis, bitcoin is holding its ground—performing no worse than traditional safe-haven assets like gold or TLT.

在風險調整的基礎上，比特幣持有地面 - 績效不比傳統的避風港資產（如黃金或TLT）差。

Looking at these four major crisis events, a pattern emerges: : each sell-off in bitcoin has marked a significant long-term bottom. During the COVID crash, BTC dropped to ~$4,000 — a level never seen again. In the March 2023 banking crisis, it briefly fell below $20,000 before resuming its climb. The August 2024 yen carry trade unwinding brought it down to $49,000 — again, a level that hasn’t returned. If history is any guide, wherever this current low takes us, it may well establish the next long-term floor.

從這四個重大的危機事件中，出現了一個模式：：比特幣中的每個拋售都標誌著長期的底層。在Covid崩潰期間，BTC降至約4,000美元，這是一個從未見過的水平。在2023年3月的銀行危機中，它在恢復攀登之前短暫低於20,000美元。 2024年8月的日元攜帶貿易放鬆銷售，將其降至49,000美元 - 再次，這一水平尚未返回。如果歷史記錄是任何指南，那麼無論目前的低點將我們帶到我們的地方，都可以建立下一個長期的樓層。

So, is Bitcoin a safe haven?

那麼，比特幣是避風港嗎？

If the old framing — low volatility and downside protection during a panic — still holds, then BTC falls short.

如果舊的框架（在恐慌中的低波動性和下行保護）仍然保持不變，那麼BTC就會不足。

But in a financial world dominated by sovereign risk, inflation, and constant policy uncertainty, bitcoin starts to look more like an asset that investors might need to consider for durability, neutrality and liquidity.

但是，在由主權風險，通貨膨脹和持續的政策不確定性主導的金融界中，比特幣看起來更像是投資者可能需要考慮耐用性，中立性和流動性的資產。

In this evolving landscape, maybe bitcoin isn’t failing the safe haven test. Maybe the old playbook of what safe haven is, needs to change.

在這種不斷發展的景觀中，也許比特幣並沒有使避風港測試失敗。也許是《避風港是什麼》的舊劇本，需要改變。