当比特币的价格波动时，交易者和投资组合经理想要答案，而不是意见。经常被扔掉的核心数字？皮尔逊相关。

这些东西不仅仅用于数据书呆子或数学迷。对于需要决定的任何人来说，这是BTC真的是一个避风港，还是在传统市场上锁定？

When Bitcoin’s price swings, traders and portfolio managers want answers, not opinions. The core number that often gets thrown around? Pearson correlation. It’s a simple stat that shows how tightly Bitcoin’s moves are tied to stocks, other crypto, or, sometimes, absolutely nothing else.

当比特币的价格波动时，交易者和投资组合经理想要答案，而不是意见。经常被扔掉的核心数字？皮尔逊相关。这是一个简单的统计数据，它显示了比特币的动作与股票，其他加密货币的紧密联系，或者有时绝对没有其他。

This stuff isn’t just for data nerds or math fans. It’s for anyone who needs to decide: Is BTC really a safe haven, or does it move in lockstep with traditional markets? Correlation measurements help you spot risk, build a smarter portfolio, and avoid surprises when markets get rowdy.

这些东西不仅用于数据书呆子或数学迷。这是针对需要决定的任何人：BTC真的是一个避风港，还是在传统市场上锁定了锁定？相关测量可帮助您发现风险，建立更明智的投资组合，并在市场变得吵闹时避免惊喜。

When stocks drop or rally, a high correlation warns you Bitcoin might follow suit (goodbye, hedge). When BTC does its own thing, that’s a different play entirely.

当库存下降或集会时，高度相关警告您的比特币可能会效仿（再见，树篱）。当BTC做自己的事情时，这完全是不同的。

Bottom line: correlation isn’t some niche tool. It’s a way to measure risk and plan your next move with confidence. In this guide, I’ll explain how Pearson correlation works and how you can use it to become a better investor.

底线：相关不是某些利基工具。这是一种衡量风险并充满信心地计划您的下一步行动的方法。在本指南中，我将解释Pearson相关性如何工作以及如何使用它来成为更好的投资者。

Key highlights:

关键亮点：

What is Pearson correlation?

什么是皮尔逊相关性？

Let’s put the jargon aside for a minute. The Pearson correlation coefficient—commonly just called “correlation”—is basically a number that tells you how much two things move together.

让我们把术语放在一分钟的时间里。 Pearson相关系数（通常称为“相关”）基本上是一个数字，它告诉您两件事一起移动了多少。

In finance, it’s used to see if the price of Bitcoin goes up when stocks go up, or if BTC falls while another asset skyrockets. It measures the “togetherness” of their ups and downs.

在金融中，它用于查看股票上涨时比特币的价格上涨，还是BTC在另一个资产飞机上下降。它衡量了他们的跌宕起伏的“团结”。

No complex stats degree needed. If you can track a number on a scale from -1 to 1, you’re halfway there.

无需复杂的统计程度。如果您可以在-1到1的比例尺上跟踪一个数字，那么您就是其中的一半。

A correlation of +1 means two assets are moving in perfect harmony. If asset A goes up by 1%, then asset B will also go up by 1%. A correlation of -1 means they are moving completely in opposite directions. If asset A goes down by 0.5%, then asset B will go up by 0.5%.

+1的相关性意味着两个资产以完美的和谐发展。如果资产A增长1％，那么资产B也将增长1％。 -1的相关性意味着它们在完全相反的方向上移动。如果资产A下跌0.5％，那么资产B将上升0.5％。

Most real-world correlations fall somewhere between these extremes. The closer you get to +1 or -1, the more reliable the relationship. A +0.8 says there’s a strong positive link—maybe not identical moves, but they usually trend together. A -0.7 warns you that the assets often work against each other.

大多数现实世界中的相关性均介于这些极端之间。您越接近+1或-1，关系就越可靠。 A +0.8表示存在牢固的积极联系 - 可能并不完全相同，但它们通常会在一起趋势。 A -0.7警告您，资产通常相互对抗。

Examples: Making correlation real

示例：使关联真实

Let me try to use some real-world analogies.

让我尝试使用一些现实世界中的类比。

If you plot the daily price changes for Bitcoin and the S&P 500, you’ll notice that when the stock index goes up or down "sharply," Bitcoin usually follows suit. But if stocks move slowly or sideways for a period, then Bitcoin might do its own thing.

如果您绘制比特币和标准普尔500指数的每日价格变化，您会注意到，当股票指数上升或下降时，比特币通常会效仿。但是，如果股票缓慢移动或侧面一段时间，那么比特币可能会做自己的事情。

If you're scanning a chart and see that Bitcoin is typically rising when a major altcoin like Ethereum is falling, then that might suggest a period of strong sector rotation. People are selling out of one asset to buy another. But if both top coins are moving in tandem, then it could be a broader risk-on or risk-off mood setting the tone.

如果您正在扫描图表，并看到像以太坊这样的主要山寨币下降时比特币通常会上升，那么这可能表明一段时间的扇形旋转时期。人们正在从一个资产中卖出来购买另一种资产。但是，如果两个顶级硬币都同时移动，那么这可能是一种更广泛的风险或风险情绪，设定了基调。

Measuring Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks and cryptocurrencies

测量比特币与股票和加密货币的相关性

Bitcoin compared with S&P 500 and gold

比特币与标准普尔500指数和黄金相比

The most common correlation studies keep coming back to a few go-to pairings:

最常见的相关研究不断回到一些首选配对：

This graph shows the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq, S&P500, and gold over the past year.

该图显示了过去一年比特币与纳斯达克股票，S＆P500的相关性。

As you can see, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is overall much lower than the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq or Bitcoin and S&P 500.

如您所见，比特币和黄金之间的相关性总体上要比比特币与纳斯达克或比特币与标准销育500之间的相关性要低得多。

Bitcoin compared with other cryptocurrencies

比特币与其他加密货币相比

Crypto doesn’t live in a vacuum. Comparing Bitcoin to top altcoins, especially Ethereum, checks if price moves across the sector are synchronized or scattered. Heavy alignment signals a risk-on/risk-off mood for all crypto. Divergence says traders are picking favorites or jumping in and out based on project news.

加密不生活在真空中。比较比特币与顶级替代币，尤其是以太坊，可以检查整个领域的价格移动是否同步或分散。沉重的对准标志着所有加密货币的风险/风险心情。 Divergence说，贸易商正在根据项目新闻选择收藏夹或跳入和跳出。

Pearson correlation coefficients between cryptocurrency pairs for the entire period (daily return)

整个时期的加密货币对之间的Pearson相关系数（每日返回）

This image shows the correlation between some of the biggest cryptocurrencies. As you can see, the correlation is generally quite high, and almost always above 0.5.

此图显示了一些最大的加密货币之间的相关性。如您所见，相关性通常很高，几乎总是高于0.5。

Limitations and considerations with correlation data

相关数据的局限性和考虑因素

Correlation has its place, but it’s far from perfect. It’s a guide, not gospel.

相关性有其位置，但远非完美。这是指南，而不是福音。

Several things can turn correlation readings upside down:

几件事可以使相关读数颠倒：

But the biggest pitfall? Confusing correlation with causation. Even a high correlation doesn’t mean one asset is moving because of the other. Sometimes, both respond to the same outside factor (like a Fed announcement or inflation spook). Other times, the link is a statistical fluke—appearing strong for a few weeks, then evaporating overnight.

但是最大的陷阱？与因果关系混淆。即使是高相关性，也不意味着一个资产是由于另一个资产而移动的。有时，两者都对相同的外部因素做出反应（例如美联储公告或通货膨胀恐怖）。其他时候，该链接是一种统计氟，持续了几周，然后蒸发过夜。

Professional analysts often adjust their perspective by watching Bitcoin price forecast trends for extra context. Tying together price predictions, volatility measurements, and correlation findings gives a clearer, more complete story.

专业分析师通常通过观看比特币价格预测趋势的额外背景来调整其观点。将价格预测，波动率测量和相关性发现结合在一起，可以更清晰，更完整。

I should also mention: just because Bitcoin was glued to stocks last month doesn’t mean it will stay that way. Correlation

我还应该提到：仅仅因为比特币上个月粘在股票上并不意味着它将保持这种状态。相关性