比特币价格飙升，预计到 2028 年减半将达到 435,000 美元

由于自 2020 年上次减半以来，比特币 (BTC) 上涨了 650%，因此推测 BTC 在 2028 年减半之前可能会达到 435,000 美元。然而，历史表明减半后反弹的回报递减，建议更保守的估计为 303,600 美元。值得注意的是，最近的价格飙升与现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）有关，而不是与减半有关，比特币 ETF 在未来两年内超越黄金 ETF 的潜力可能会进一步推动 BTC 价格升至六位数大关。

Bitcoin Price Surge: Potential Trajectory Towards $435,000 by the 2028 Halving

比特币价格飙升：到 2028 年减半，其潜在轨迹将达到 435,000 美元

Since the most recent Bitcoin (BTC) halving in 2020, the cryptocurrency's price has experienced a remarkable rally of approximately 650%. Should historical patterns repeat themselves, there is reason to anticipate that Bitcoin could ascend to the staggering price point of $435,000 before the next halving event in 2028.

自 2020 年最近一次比特币 (BTC) 减半以来，该加密货币的价格已大幅上涨约 650%。如果历史模式重演，我们有理由预计，在 2028 年下一次减半事件之前，比特币的价格可能会升至 435,000 美元的惊人价格点。

Historical Trends and Projections

历史趋势和预测

Drawing inspiration from historical data, analysts have observed that the Bitcoin price has consistently exhibited significant gains following each halving event. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has undergone three halvings, with each subsequent halving coinciding with an exponential increase in price.

分析师从历史数据中汲取灵感，观察到比特币价格在每次减半事件后始终表现出显着上涨。自2009年诞生以来，比特币已经经历了三次减半，随后的每次减半都伴随着价格的指数级上涨。

The first halving in 2012 saw Bitcoin surge from a negligible value to approximately $12.50, representing an astounding increase of over 12,400%. The 2016 halving witnessed a surge of 5,200% to $650, while the 2020 halving resulted in a 1,200% increase to $8,500.

2012 年第一次减半时，比特币从可忽略不计的价值飙升至约 12.50 美元，涨幅超过 12,400%，令人震惊。 2016 年减半导致价格飙升 5,200% 至 650 美元，而 2020 年减半则导致价格上涨 1,200% 至 8,500 美元。

Based on this established pattern, if Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory in the current cycle, the current price of $66,000 could potentially reach $434,280 per coin by the 2028 halving.

根据这一既定模式，如果比特币在当前周期中遵循类似的轨迹，那么到 2028 年减半时，当前 66,000 美元的价格可能会达到每枚 434,280 美元。

Diminishing Returns and Alternative Influences

收益递减和替代影响

However, it is essential to acknowledge that Bitcoin's post-halving rallies have been characterized by a diminishing returns pattern. In the lead-up to the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin rose from near zero value to $12.50. In subsequent halvings, the percentage increases have gradually decreased, with the 2020 halving resulting in a 1,200% gain.

然而，必须承认比特币减半后反弹的特点是收益递减模式。在 2012 年第一次减半之前，比特币从接近零的价值升至 12.50 美元。在随后的减半中，涨幅逐渐下降，2020 年减半带来了 1,200% 的涨幅。

Should this trend continue, Bitcoin's price rally in the next cycle could experience a reduction of approximately 360%, potentially resulting in a price of around $303,600 by the 2028 halving.

如果这种趋势持续下去，比特币在下一个周期的价格上涨可能会减少约 360%，到 2028 年减半时价格可能会达到 303,600 美元左右。

Furthermore, analysts have suggested that the recent surge in Bitcoin's price may not be solely attributable to the upcoming halving. Inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been identified as a significant contributing factor.

此外，分析师表示，最近比特币价格的飙升可能不仅仅归因于即将到来的减半。流入现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）已被认为是一个重要的促成因素。

ETFs and the Gold Market

ETF 和黄金市场

The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs has generated considerable excitement within the financial community, as it provides a more accessible and regulated avenue for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.

比特币 ETF 的出现在金融界引起了相当大的关注，因为它为机构和散户投资者提供了更容易获得和监管的途径来接触加密货币。

According to a recent research report by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, if Bitcoin ETFs overtake gold ETFs, a scenario that is deemed feasible within the next two years, Bitcoin's price could potentially reach a six-figure valuation.

根据彭博社分析师 Eric Balchunas 最近的一份研究报告，如果比特币 ETF 超过黄金 ETF（这种情况在未来两年内被认为是可行的），比特币的价格可能会达到六位数的估值。

Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs are demonstrating a significantly faster growth rate compared to gold ETFs during their initial years of existence. This accelerated pace has led some analysts to draw parallels between Bitcoin and gold's historical price trajectory.

此外，与黄金 ETF 相比，比特币 ETF 在其成立的最初几年中表现出明显更快的增长率。这种加速的步伐导致一些分析师将比特币和黄金的历史价格轨迹进行了比较。

Disclaimer

免责声明

It is imperative to emphasize that this article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Any decision regarding the purchase or sale of Bitcoin should be predicated on thorough research and a comprehensive understanding of the associated risks.

需要强调的是，本文不构成投资建议或推荐。有关购买或出售比特币的任何决定都应基于对相关风险的深入研究和全面了解。