比特幣價格飆升，預計到 2028 年減半將達到 435,000 美元

由於自 2020 年上次減半以來，比特幣 (BTC) 上漲了 650%，因此推測 BTC 在 2028 年減半之前可能會達到 435,000 美元。然而，歷史顯示減半後反彈的回報遞減，建議更保守的估計為 303,600 美元。值得注意的是，最近的價格飆升與現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）有關，而不是與減半有關，比特幣ETF 在未來兩年內超越黃金ETF 的潛力可能會進一步推動BTC 價格升至六位數大關。

Bitcoin Price Surge: Potential Trajectory Towards $435,000 by the 2028 Halving

比特幣價格飆升：到 2028 年減半，其潛在軌跡將達到 435,000 美元

Since the most recent Bitcoin (BTC) halving in 2020, the cryptocurrency's price has experienced a remarkable rally of approximately 650%. Should historical patterns repeat themselves, there is reason to anticipate that Bitcoin could ascend to the staggering price point of $435,000 before the next halving event in 2028.

自 2020 年最近一次比特幣 (BTC) 減半以來，該加密貨幣的價格已大幅上漲約 650%。如果歷史模式重演，我們有理由預計，在 2028 年下一次減半事件之前，比特幣的價格可能會升至 435,000 美元的驚人價格點。

Historical Trends and Projections

歷史趨勢和預測

Drawing inspiration from historical data, analysts have observed that the Bitcoin price has consistently exhibited significant gains following each halving event. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has undergone three halvings, with each subsequent halving coinciding with an exponential increase in price.

分析師從歷史數據中汲取靈感，觀察到比特幣價格在每次減半事件後始終表現出顯著上漲。自2009年誕生以來，比特幣已經經歷了三次減半，隨後的每次減半都伴隨著價格的指數級上漲。

The first halving in 2012 saw Bitcoin surge from a negligible value to approximately $12.50, representing an astounding increase of over 12,400%. The 2016 halving witnessed a surge of 5,200% to $650, while the 2020 halving resulted in a 1,200% increase to $8,500.

2012 年第一次減半時，比特幣從可忽略不計的價值飆升至約 12.50 美元，漲幅超過 12,400%，令人震驚。 2016 年減半導致價格飆升 5,200% 至 650 美元，而 2020 年減半則導致價格上漲 1,200% 至 8,500 美元。

Based on this established pattern, if Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory in the current cycle, the current price of $66,000 could potentially reach $434,280 per coin by the 2028 halving.

根據這一既定模式，如果比特幣在當前週期中遵循類似的軌跡，那麼到 2028 年減半時，當前 66,000 美元的價格可能會達到每枚 434,280 美元。

Diminishing Returns and Alternative Influences

收益遞減和替代影響

However, it is essential to acknowledge that Bitcoin's post-halving rallies have been characterized by a diminishing returns pattern. In the lead-up to the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin rose from near zero value to $12.50. In subsequent halvings, the percentage increases have gradually decreased, with the 2020 halving resulting in a 1,200% gain.

然而，必須承認比特幣減半後反彈的特徵是收益遞減模式。在 2012 年第一次減半之前，比特幣從接近零的價值升至 12.50 美元。在隨後的減半中，漲幅逐漸下降，2020 年減半帶來了 1,200% 的漲幅。

Should this trend continue, Bitcoin's price rally in the next cycle could experience a reduction of approximately 360%, potentially resulting in a price of around $303,600 by the 2028 halving.

如果這種趨勢持續下去，比特幣在下一個週期的價格上漲可能會減少約 360%，到 2028 年減半時價格可能會達到 303,600 美元左右。

Furthermore, analysts have suggested that the recent surge in Bitcoin's price may not be solely attributable to the upcoming halving. Inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been identified as a significant contributing factor.

此外，分析師表示，最近比特幣價格的飆升可能不僅僅歸因於即將到來的減半。流入現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）已被認為是重要的促成因素。

ETFs and the Gold Market

ETF 和黃金市場

The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs has generated considerable excitement within the financial community, as it provides a more accessible and regulated avenue for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.

比特幣 ETF 的出現在金融界引起了相當大的關注，因為它為機構和散戶投資者提供了更容易獲得和監管的途徑來接觸加密貨幣。

According to a recent research report by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, if Bitcoin ETFs overtake gold ETFs, a scenario that is deemed feasible within the next two years, Bitcoin's price could potentially reach a six-figure valuation.

根據彭博分析師 Eric Balchunas 最近的研究報告，如果比特幣 ETF 超過黃金 ETF（這種情況在未來兩年內被認為是可行的），比特幣的價格可能會達到六位數的估值。

Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs are demonstrating a significantly faster growth rate compared to gold ETFs during their initial years of existence. This accelerated pace has led some analysts to draw parallels between Bitcoin and gold's historical price trajectory.

此外，與黃金 ETF 相比，比特幣 ETF 在成立的最初幾年表現出明顯更快的成長率。這種加速的步伐導致一些分析師將比特幣和黃金的歷史價格軌跡進行了比較。

Disclaimer

免責聲明

It is imperative to emphasize that this article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Any decision regarding the purchase or sale of Bitcoin should be predicated on thorough research and a comprehensive understanding of the associated risks.

需要強調的是，本文不構成投資建議或推薦。有關購買或出售比特幣的任何決定都應基於對相關風險的深入研究和全面了解。