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高盛表示,2024 年比特币(BTC)价格升值未能弥补其价格波动风险。与此同时,黄金较高的风险调整回报再次证实了其“避风港”的说法。
Bitcoin (BTC) price performance in 2024 failed to compensate for its price volatility risks, according to Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, gold’s higher risk-adjusted returns reaffirmed its “safe haven” narrative.
高盛表示,2024 年比特币 (BTC) 的价格表现未能弥补其价格波动风险。与此同时,黄金较高的风险调整回报再次证实了其“避风港”的说法。
Despite The Gains, Bitcoin Fails To Outshine Gold
尽管有所上涨,但比特币未能超越黄金
The leading digital asset by reported market cap surged from roughly $42,000 at the beginning of the year to as high as $73,000 in March 2024, recording more than 73% gains. At its current market price of $62,790, BTC is still more than 40% up from its price in January 2024.
据报道,这一领先的数字资产市值从年初的约 42,000 美元飙升至 2024 年 3 月的 73,000 美元,涨幅超过 73%。目前 BTC 的市场价格为 62,790 美元,较 2024 年 1 月的价格仍上涨 40% 以上。
Notably, throughout 2024, Bitcoin has consistently outperformed major equity indices, fixed-income instruments, gold, and crude oil.
值得注意的是,整个 2024 年,比特币的表现一直优于主要股指、固定收益工具、黄金和原油。
However, despite BTC’s impressive gains, its price performance in absolute terms fails to compensate for its volatility, according to data tracked by Goldman Sachs.
然而,根据高盛追踪的数据,尽管比特币的涨幅令人印象深刻,但其绝对价格表现未能弥补其波动性。
The analysis by Goldman Sachs puts BTC’s year-to-date (YTD) volatility ratio at just under 2%. In comparison, gold gave a risk-adjusted return of 3%, posting strong 28% gains in absolute terms.
高盛的分析显示,BTC 年初至今 (YTD) 的波动率略低于 2%。相比之下,黄金的风险调整回报率为 3%,绝对涨幅高达 28%。
For the uninitiated, the volatility ratio measures the return an asset generates for each unit of risk or volatility it carries. A higher ratio indicates that an asset provides better returns relative to the risk taken, while a lower ratio suggests less efficient performance.
对于外行来说,波动率衡量的是资产为其所承担的每个风险或波动单位所产生的回报。较高的比率表明资产相对于所承担的风险提供更好的回报,而较低的比率表明资产效率较低。
The analysis notes that Bitcoin’s volatility ratio was only better than Ethereum’s native ETH token, S&P GSCI Energy Index, and Japan’s TOPIX index among the non-fixed income growth-sensitive investments.
分析指出,在非固定收益增长敏感型投资中,比特币的波动率仅优于以太坊原生ETH代币、标普高盛能源指数和日本TOPIX指数。
Bitcoin’s low volatility ratio compared to gold cements the latter’s claim as a “safe haven asset.” This came under the limelight last week when BTC slumped, and gold surged following Iran’s offensive against Israel.
与黄金相比,比特币的波动率较低,巩固了后者作为“避险资产”的主张。上周比特币暴跌,而伊朗进攻以色列后黄金飙升,这一点成为人们关注的焦点。
Still A Long Way To Go For Bitcoin
比特币还有很长的路要走
Since its inception following the 2008 financial crisis, Bitcoin’s ascent to a trillion-dollar market cap asset has been remarkable.
自 2008 年金融危机后诞生以来,比特币的市值已跃升至万亿美元,令人瞩目。
The fixed supply of 21 million, decentralized network architecture, and halving every four years make BTC an appealing asset. However, the market cap gap between Bitcoin and gold remains vast.
2100万的固定供应量、去中心化的网络架构以及每四年减半的特点使BTC成为一种有吸引力的资产。然而,比特币和黄金之间的市值差距仍然巨大。
That said, several crypto analysts are confident that Bitcoin will outshine the shining metal in the coming years. For instance, seasoned analyst Peter Brandt recently made an ambitious prediction that by 2025, BTC could see its price jump 400% relative to gold.
尽管如此,一些加密货币分析师仍然相信,比特币将在未来几年超越这种闪亮的金属。例如,经验丰富的分析师 Peter Brandt 最近做出了一个雄心勃勃的预测,即到 2025 年,BTC 的价格相对于黄金可能会上涨 400%。
Similarly, in August 2024, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck stated that BTC could surge to $350,000 on the back of greater adoption.
同样,2024 年 8 月,VanEck 首席执行官 Jan van Eck 表示,随着采用率的提高,BTC 的价格可能会飙升至 35 万美元。
Most recently, investment management firm BlackRock declared Bitcoin a “gold alternative” due to its fixed supply and increasing investor confidence in its ability to tackle inflation and avoid value erosion during uncertain times.
最近,投资管理公司贝莱德宣布比特币是“黄金替代品”,因为其供应量固定,并且投资者对其应对通胀和在不确定时期避免价值侵蚀的能力越来越有信心。
On the contrary, billionaire Ray Dalio has expressed his opinion on the Bitcoin vs. gold narrative, saying that BTC will never fully replace gold. BTC trades at $62,790 at press time, down 2.3% in the last 24 hours.
相反,亿万富翁 Ray Dalio 对比特币与黄金的争论表达了自己的看法,称比特币永远不会完全取代黄金。截至发稿时,BTC 交易价格为 62,790 美元,过去 24 小时内下跌 2.3%。
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