比特币价格低迷，拉力策略（MSTR）库存下降

比特币（BTC）的价格从2024年12月的峰值$ 108,000到摇摇欲坠的$ 88,000- $ 97,000

The price of Bitcoin has fallen from a December 2024 peak of $108,000 to a range of $88,000-$97,000 by February 25, 2025, marking a decline of up to 19%. As a result, investors are feeling uneasy.

到2025年2月25日，比特币的价格已从2024年12月的峰值下降到88,000至97,000美元的范围，标志下降了19％。结果，投资者感到不安。

Among the major investors, Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy), the biggest corporate Bitcoin holder, has seen its stock (MSTR) plummet over 55% from recent highs. This downturn has come amid a broader decline in the cryptocurrency market, leaving traders wondering if Strategy’s $43.7 billion Bitcoin stash can survive this storm.

在主要的投资者中，最大的公司比特币持有人的战略（以前称为MicroStrategy），其股票（MSTR）的股票（MSTR）与最近的高点相比下降了55％以上。由于加密货币市场的较大下降，这种低迷的情况使交易员想知道战略的437亿美元比特币储藏量是否可以在这场风暴中幸存下来。

A Deeper Dive

更深入的潜水

As of February 10, 2025, Strategy held 478,740 BTC, which is valued at approximately $91,250 per coin today. The company, headed by Michael Saylor, acquired these coins for a total of $27.954 billion at an average price of $62,473 per Bitcoin.

截至2025年2月10日，战略持有478,740 BTC，今天的每枚硬币的价值约为91,250美元。该公司由迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）领导，以每比特币平均62,473美元的价格收购了这些硬币，总计279.54亿美元。

This investment yields a hefty unrealized gain of $15.746 billion. However, the market isn’t celebrating. According to reports from the Kobeissi Letter on X, Bitcoin’s recent slide and the decline in MSTR stock signal trouble for Strategy’s bold play.

这项投资产生了157.46亿美元的大量未实现收益。但是，市场没有庆祝。根据Kobeissi在X上的信，Bitcoin最近的幻灯片以及MSTR库存信号障碍的大胆游戏的报道。

The company’s Bitcoin holdings are subject to a 19% leverage ratio, and the conversion prices for its debt are set lower than the current share price, which gives Strategy some room for maneuver. However, if Bitcoin continues to fall and stays at lower levels for an extended period, it will become more difficult to raise fresh capital.

该公司的比特币持有率持有19％的杠杆比率，其债务的转换价格将低于当前股价，这为策略提供了一些机动空间。但是，如果比特币继续下降并长期保持较低水平，那么筹集新的资本将变得更加困难。

According to an analysis from the Kobeissi Letter, the structure of Strategy’s debt is a crucial factor in comprehending the risks involved.

根据《 Kobeissi信》的分析，战略债务的结构是理解所涉及风险的关键因素。

Liquidation Fears: Are They Real or Overblown?

清算恐惧：它们是真实的还是夸张的？

There has been talk of a “forced liquidation,” which might lead to Strategy having to sell off its Bitcoin holdings. However, as the Kobeissi Letter points out in a February 2025 thread, this scenario is unlikely.

有人谈到“强迫清算”，这可能导致战略不得不出售其比特币持有量。但是，正如Kobeissi信件在2025年2月的线程中指出的那样，这种情况不太可能。

Saylor controls 46.8% of the voting power, and any shareholder wishing to push for a drastic move like liquidation would require his approval, which isn’t easily obtained.

Saylor控制了46.8％的投票权，任何希望推动诸如清算之类的急剧举动的股东都需要他的批准，这并不容易获得。

Moreover, the debt has a long maturity date of 2028, and to force Strategy to sell its Bitcoin holdings, there would need to be a fundamental change in the company, which Saylor has the power to block.

此外，债务的到期日期为2028年，并且要强迫出售其比特币持有的战略，公司需要进行根本性的变化，Saylor有权阻止这一比特币。

The Importance of Bitcoin Price and MSTR Stock

比特币价格和MST股票的重要性

The price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $88,000 and $97,000 as of February 25, 2025. While this price range is still above Strategy’s average entry point for its Bitcoin holdings, which is $62,473, the gap is narrowing if the slide continues.

截至2025年2月25日，比特币的价格在88,000美元至97,000美元之间的波动。尽管该价格范围仍高于其比特币持有量的策略的平均入口点，即62,473美元，但如果幻灯片继续下去，差距却在缩小。

On the other hand, MSTR stock has experienced a decline of over 55% since reaching its peak, resulting in the loss of billions of dollars in value. This decline is due to investor concerns that if the price of Bitcoin continues to fall for an extended period, it could impair Strategy’s ability to issue new shares or debt.

另一方面，自达到顶峰以来，MSTR股票的下降超过55％，导致价值损失数十亿美元。这种下降是由于投资者担心的是，如果比特币的价格持续很长时间，它可能会损害策略发行新股票或债务的能力。

The company’s model depends on market confidence to raise cash, buy Bitcoin, and repeat the cycle.

该公司的模型取决于市场信心，以提高现金，购买比特币并重复周期。

Analysts are divided in their opinions. Some view Strategy’s massive Bitcoin bet as a masterstroke, especially if the price of Bitcoin rises again to reach $100,000 or higher levels. In that scenario, the 478,740 coins in Strategy’s possession could increase in value significantly.

分析师的意见分歧。某些人将策略的大量比特币押注视为一种大师，尤其是如果比特币的价格再次上涨至100,000美元或更高水平。在这种情况下，战略拥有的478,740硬币的价值可能会大大增加。

However, others highlight the potential downside. If the price of Bitcoin were to drop by 50% to reach $45,625, for instance, then the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings would fall below the amount of debt it has taken on or the price at which it bought the coins.

但是，其他人强调了潜在的不利之处。例如，如果比特币的价格下跌50％，达到45,625美元，那么战略比特币持有的价值将低于其承担的债务金额或购买硬币的价格。

The analysis from the Kobeissi Letter emphasizes this tension, but it also notes that there is no immediate threat of collapse. Nevertheless, the mood among investors is changing rapidly.

Kobeissi字母的分析强调了这种张力，但也指出没有立即崩溃的威胁。然而，投资者的心情正在迅速变化。

What’s Next for Strategy?

策略的下一步是什么？

It appears that Strategy has managed to survive previous crypto winters, but this time, the company is facing a deeper dip, which might test its limits. With the price of Bitcoin at $91,250, the company is still in the green, but only just.

看来战略已经设法在以前的加密蛋糕冬季中幸存下来，但是这次，该公司正面临更深入的下降，这可能会测试其极限。由于比特币的价格为91,250美元，该公司仍处于绿色状态，但仅仅是绿色。

The 55% decline in the company’s stock price signals that investors are becoming restless, and Strategy’s lifeline is the possibility of raising more capital. However, if the price of Bitcoin falls below $62,473 for a sustained period, then that lifeline will begin to fray.

该公司股票价格信号的55％下降，即投资者变得不安，而战略的生命线可能是筹集更多资本的可能性。但是，如果比特币的价格在持续时间内低于62,473美元，那么该生命线将开始磨损。

As the Kobeissi Letter on X, dated February 2025,

作为2025年2月的X上的Kobeissi信件，