比特幣價格低迷，拉力策略（MSTR）庫存下降

比特幣（BTC）的價格從2024年12月的峰值$ 108,000到搖搖欲墜的$ 88,000- $ 97,000

The price of Bitcoin has fallen from a December 2024 peak of $108,000 to a range of $88,000-$97,000 by February 25, 2025, marking a decline of up to 19%. As a result, investors are feeling uneasy.

到2025年2月25日，比特幣的價格已從2024年12月的峰值下降到88,000至97,000美元的範圍，標誌下降了19％。結果，投資者感到不安。

Among the major investors, Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy), the biggest corporate Bitcoin holder, has seen its stock (MSTR) plummet over 55% from recent highs. This downturn has come amid a broader decline in the cryptocurrency market, leaving traders wondering if Strategy’s $43.7 billion Bitcoin stash can survive this storm.

在主要的投資者中，最大的公司比特幣持有人的戰略（以前稱為MicroStrategy），其股票（MSTR）的股票（MSTR）與最近的高點相比下降了55％以上。由於加密貨幣市場的較大下降，這種低迷的情況使交易員想知道戰略的437億美元比特幣儲藏量是否可以在這場風暴中倖存下來。

A Deeper Dive

更深入的潛水

As of February 10, 2025, Strategy held 478,740 BTC, which is valued at approximately $91,250 per coin today. The company, headed by Michael Saylor, acquired these coins for a total of $27.954 billion at an average price of $62,473 per Bitcoin.

截至2025年2月10日，戰略持有478,740 BTC，今天的每枚硬幣的價值約為91,250美元。該公司由邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）領導，以每比特幣平均62,473美元的價格收購了這些硬幣，總計279.54億美元。

This investment yields a hefty unrealized gain of $15.746 billion. However, the market isn’t celebrating. According to reports from the Kobeissi Letter on X, Bitcoin’s recent slide and the decline in MSTR stock signal trouble for Strategy’s bold play.

這項投資產生了157.46億美元的大量未實現收益。但是，市場沒有慶祝。根據Kobeissi在X上的信，Bitcoin最近的幻燈片以及MSTR庫存信號障礙的大膽遊戲的報導。

The company’s Bitcoin holdings are subject to a 19% leverage ratio, and the conversion prices for its debt are set lower than the current share price, which gives Strategy some room for maneuver. However, if Bitcoin continues to fall and stays at lower levels for an extended period, it will become more difficult to raise fresh capital.

該公司的比特幣持有率持有19％的槓桿比率，其債務的轉換價格將低於當前股價，這為策略提供了一些機動空間。但是，如果比特幣繼續下降並長期保持較低水平，那麼籌集新的資本將變得更加困難。

According to an analysis from the Kobeissi Letter, the structure of Strategy’s debt is a crucial factor in comprehending the risks involved.

根據《 Kobeissi信》的分析，戰略債務的結構是理解所涉及風險的關鍵因素。

Liquidation Fears: Are They Real or Overblown?

清算恐懼：它們是真實的還是誇張的？

There has been talk of a “forced liquidation,” which might lead to Strategy having to sell off its Bitcoin holdings. However, as the Kobeissi Letter points out in a February 2025 thread, this scenario is unlikely.

有人談到“強迫清算”，這可能導致戰略不得不出售其比特幣持有量。但是，正如Kobeissi信件在2025年2月的線程中指出的那樣，這種情況不太可能。

Saylor controls 46.8% of the voting power, and any shareholder wishing to push for a drastic move like liquidation would require his approval, which isn’t easily obtained.

Saylor控制了46.8％的投票權，任何希望推動諸如清算之類的急劇舉動的股東都需要他的批准，這並不容易獲得。

Moreover, the debt has a long maturity date of 2028, and to force Strategy to sell its Bitcoin holdings, there would need to be a fundamental change in the company, which Saylor has the power to block.

此外，債務的到期日期為2028年，並且要強迫出售其比特幣持有的戰略，公司需要進行根本性的變化，Saylor有權阻止這一比特幣。

The Importance of Bitcoin Price and MSTR Stock

比特幣價格和MST股票的重要性

The price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $88,000 and $97,000 as of February 25, 2025. While this price range is still above Strategy’s average entry point for its Bitcoin holdings, which is $62,473, the gap is narrowing if the slide continues.

截至2025年2月25日，比特幣的價格在88,000美元至97,000美元之間的波動。儘管該價格範圍仍高於其比特幣持有量的策略的平均入口點，即62,473美元，但如果幻燈片繼續下去，差距卻在縮小。

On the other hand, MSTR stock has experienced a decline of over 55% since reaching its peak, resulting in the loss of billions of dollars in value. This decline is due to investor concerns that if the price of Bitcoin continues to fall for an extended period, it could impair Strategy’s ability to issue new shares or debt.

另一方面，自達到頂峰以來，MSTR股票的下降超過55％，導致價值損失數十億美元。這種下降是由於投資者擔心的是，如果比特幣的價格持續很長時間，它可能會損害策略發行新股票或債務的能力。

The company’s model depends on market confidence to raise cash, buy Bitcoin, and repeat the cycle.

該公司的模型取決於市場信心，以提高現金，購買比特幣並重複週期。

Analysts are divided in their opinions. Some view Strategy’s massive Bitcoin bet as a masterstroke, especially if the price of Bitcoin rises again to reach $100,000 or higher levels. In that scenario, the 478,740 coins in Strategy’s possession could increase in value significantly.

分析師的意見分歧。某些人將策略的大量比特幣押注視為一種大師，尤其是如果比特幣的價格再次上漲至100,000美元或更高水平。在這種情況下，戰略擁有的478,740硬幣的價值可能會大大增加。

However, others highlight the potential downside. If the price of Bitcoin were to drop by 50% to reach $45,625, for instance, then the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings would fall below the amount of debt it has taken on or the price at which it bought the coins.

但是，其他人強調了潛在的不利之處。例如，如果比特幣的價格下跌50％，達到45,625美元，那麼戰略比特幣持有的價值將低於其承擔的債務金額或購買硬幣的價格。

The analysis from the Kobeissi Letter emphasizes this tension, but it also notes that there is no immediate threat of collapse. Nevertheless, the mood among investors is changing rapidly.

Kobeissi字母的分析強調了這種張力，但也指出沒有立即崩潰的威脅。然而，投資者的心情正在迅速變化。

What’s Next for Strategy?

策略的下一步是什麼？

It appears that Strategy has managed to survive previous crypto winters, but this time, the company is facing a deeper dip, which might test its limits. With the price of Bitcoin at $91,250, the company is still in the green, but only just.

看來戰略已經設法在以前的加密蛋糕冬季中倖存下來，但是這次，該公司正面臨更深入的下降，這可能會測試其極限。由於比特幣的價格為91,250美元，該公司仍處於綠色狀態，但僅僅是綠色。

The 55% decline in the company’s stock price signals that investors are becoming restless, and Strategy’s lifeline is the possibility of raising more capital. However, if the price of Bitcoin falls below $62,473 for a sustained period, then that lifeline will begin to fray.

該公司股票價格信號的55％下降，即投資者變得不安，而戰略的生命線可能是籌集更多資本的可能性。但是，如果比特幣的價格在持續時間內低於62,473美元，那麼該生命線將開始磨損。

As the Kobeissi Letter on X, dated February 2025,

作為2025年2月的X上的Kobeissi信件，