美国大选前夕，比特币价格压垮山寨币。之后还会有另类集会吗？

由于监管不确定性，山寨币全年表现落后，因此 K33 Research 分析师表示，他们对选举结果“更加敏感”。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) grip on the whole digital asset class rose to a fresh 3.5-year high on Tuesday as alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins continued to struggle against the leading crypto with the U.S. election looming over the market.

周二，比特币 (BTC) 对整个数字资产类别的控制力升至 3.5 年新高，因为随着美国大选迫在眉睫，另类加密货币或山寨币继续与领先的加密货币作斗争。

While BTC was down less than 4% from last week’s near-record high of over $73,000, large-cap altcoins like Ethereum’s ether (ETH) and Solana’s native token (SOL) both dropped nearly 10% from their recent highs. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 declined nearly 6%.

虽然 BTC 较上周超过 73,000 美元的接近历史高点下跌了不到 4%，但以太坊的以太币 (ETH) 和 Solana 的原生代币 (SOL) 等大盘山寨币均较近期高点下跌了近 10%。大盘 CoinDesk 20 下跌近 6%。

Smaller cryptos fared even worse, as the combined market capitalization of altcoins excluding the top 10 largest cryptos, shown as OTHERS on TradingView, plummeted to the lowest relative to bitcoin since early 2021.

较小的加密货币的表现甚至更糟，因为除排名前 10 的加密货币外，山寨币的总市值（在 TradingView 上显示为“其他”）相对于比特币暴跌至 2021 年初以来的最低水平。

The price action propelled bitcoin’s market cap dominance, which measures BTC’s share of the total crypto market capitalization, to 60.6%, its strongest level since April 2021.

这一价格走势将比特币的市值主导地位（衡量比特币在加密货币总市值中的份额）推升至 60.6%，这是自 2021 年 4 月以来的最高水平。

“Altcoins are now seeing severe drawdowns whenever BTC pulls back,” Bitfinex analysts said in a Monday report.

Bitfinex 分析师在周一的报告中表示：“每当 BTC 回落时，山寨币就会出现严重下跌。”

“With BTC absorbing most of the capital flow into crypto assets, altcoins are struggling to keep up, and without a fresh catalyst, their prospects for a comeback in the near-term appear slim,” the authors added.

作者补充道：“随着比特币吸收了大部分流入加密资产的资金，山寨币正在努力跟上，如果没有新的催化剂，它们在短期内卷土重来的前景似乎很渺茫。”

Speculative interest that supported altcoin outperformance during brief periods have vanished, as funding rates on perpetual futures markets normalized, the report noted.

报告指出，随着永续期货市场的融资利率正常化，支持山寨币在短期内表现优异的投机兴趣已经消失。

Bitcoin’s winning streak against alts may continue for a while, Bitfinex analysts forecasted.

Bitfinex 分析师预测，比特币相对山寨币的连胜可能会持续一段时间。

“We believe that the altcoin market may experience further declines relative to bitcoin in the mid-term, primarily due to the apathy of speculators.”

“我们认为，从中期来看，山寨币市场相对于比特币可能会进一步下跌，这主要是由于投机者的冷漠。”

Read more: Bitcoin Likely to Rally After the U.S. Election, Irrespective of Who Wins, History Shows: Van Straten

阅读更多：历史显示，无论谁获胜，比特币都可能在美国大选后反弹：Van Straten

Regulatory uncertainty weighs more on altcoins

监管不确定性对山寨币的影响更大

Altcoins have lagged through this year against bitcoin, in part because of their regulatory ambiguity, K33 Research noted in a Tuesday report. This means that the election results and the perceived outlook for digital asset regulations will matter more for smaller cryptos than BTC, the report added.

K33 Research 在周二的一份报告中指出，山寨币今年相对于比特币表现落后，部分原因是其监管模糊。报告补充说，这意味着选举结果和数字资产监管的预期前景对于小型加密货币来说比比特币更重要。

“Bitcoin’s attributes and wide availability position it to thrive in the medium term, regardless of the [U.S. election] outcome,” K33 Research analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman said. “For altcoins, the election is more sensitive,”

K33 Research 分析师 Vetle Lunde 和 David Zimmerman 表示：“无论（美国大选）结果如何，比特币的属性和广泛的可用性使其能够在中期内蓬勃发展。” “对于山寨币来说，选举更为敏感，”

“This implies that the medium-term path dependency in alts should be more sensitive to the election than BTC,” they added.

他们补充道：“这意味着替代品的中期路径依赖应该比比特币对选举更敏感。”

Macro strength could provide a tailwind

宏观实力可以提供顺风

The elections, and the uncertainty around the outcome weighing on the market, might as well be the inflection point for altcoins starting to catch up with bitcoin, according to David Duong, head of research at Coinbase.

Coinbase 研究主管 David Duong 表示，选举以及结果的不确定性给市场带来压力，也可能成为山寨币开始赶上比特币的拐点。

“I would expect bitcoin dominance to start to kind of plateau here as altcoin names are probably going to take more of a front seat due to the fact that people are going to play them more because of the elections,” said Duong in an interview with CoinDesk.

Duong 在接受采访时表示：“我预计比特币的主导地位将开始趋于稳定，因为山寨币名称可能会占据更多的位置，因为人们会因为选举而更多地玩它们。” CoinDesk。

He said the election will be a catalyst for crypto prices but likely won’t have an outsized impact, as favorable macro conditions will provide a tailwind to the whole asset class.

他表示，这次选举将成为加密货币价格的催化剂，但可能不会产生太大的影响，因为有利的宏观条件将为整个资产类别提供推动力。

“I would actually say I’m fairly optimistic through probably early to first half of the first quarter of 2025, in part because I think we’re in a very strong macro environment and it’s been very favorable,” he said. “I do think that we’re gonna see us benefit from the elections as well, regardless of who wins.”

他表示：“实际上，我想说的是，我对 2025 年第一季度初至上半年都相当乐观，部分原因是我认为我们处于非常强劲的宏观环境中，而且情况非常有利。” “我确实认为，无论谁获胜，我们也会从选举中受益。”

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