美國大選前夕，比特幣價格壓垮山寨幣。之後還會有另類集會嗎？

由於監管不確定性，山寨幣全年表現落後，因此 K33 Research 分析師表示，他們對選舉結果「更加敏感」。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) grip on the whole digital asset class rose to a fresh 3.5-year high on Tuesday as alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins continued to struggle against the leading crypto with the U.S. election looming over the market.

週二，比特幣 (BTC) 對整個數位資產類別的控制力升至 3.5 年新高，因為隨著美國大選迫在眉睫，另類加密貨幣或山寨幣繼續與領先的加密貨幣作鬥爭。

While BTC was down less than 4% from last week’s near-record high of over $73,000, large-cap altcoins like Ethereum’s ether (ETH) and Solana’s native token (SOL) both dropped nearly 10% from their recent highs. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 declined nearly 6%.

雖然BTC 較上週超過73,000 美元的接近歷史高點下跌了不到4%，但以太坊的以太幣(ETH) 和Solana 的原生代幣(SOL) 等大盤山寨幣均較近期高點下跌了近10 %。大盤 CoinDesk 20 下跌近 6%。

Smaller cryptos fared even worse, as the combined market capitalization of altcoins excluding the top 10 largest cryptos, shown as OTHERS on TradingView, plummeted to the lowest relative to bitcoin since early 2021.

較小的加密貨幣的表現甚至更糟，因為除前 10 名的加密貨幣外，山寨幣的總市值（在 TradingView 上顯示為「其他」）相對於比特幣暴跌至 2021 年初以來的最低水平。

The price action propelled bitcoin’s market cap dominance, which measures BTC’s share of the total crypto market capitalization, to 60.6%, its strongest level since April 2021.

這一價格走勢將比特幣的市值主導地位（衡量比特幣在加密貨幣總市值中的份額）推升至 60.6%，這是自 2021 年 4 月以來的最高水平。

“Altcoins are now seeing severe drawdowns whenever BTC pulls back,” Bitfinex analysts said in a Monday report.

Bitfinex 分析師在周一的報告中表示：“每當 BTC 回落時，山寨幣就會出現嚴重下跌。”

“With BTC absorbing most of the capital flow into crypto assets, altcoins are struggling to keep up, and without a fresh catalyst, their prospects for a comeback in the near-term appear slim,” the authors added.

作者補充說：“隨著比特幣吸收了大部分流入加密資產的資金，山寨幣正在努力跟上，如果沒有新的催化劑，它們在短期內捲土重來的前景似乎很渺茫。”

Speculative interest that supported altcoin outperformance during brief periods have vanished, as funding rates on perpetual futures markets normalized, the report noted.

報告指出，隨著永續期貨市場的融資利率正常化，支持山寨幣在短期內表現優異的投機興趣已經消失。

Bitcoin’s winning streak against alts may continue for a while, Bitfinex analysts forecasted.

Bitfinex 分析師預測，比特幣相對山寨幣的連勝可能會持續一段時間。

“We believe that the altcoin market may experience further declines relative to bitcoin in the mid-term, primarily due to the apathy of speculators.”

“我們認為，從中期來看，山寨幣市場相對於比特幣可能會進一步下跌，這主要是由於投機者的冷漠。”

Read more: Bitcoin Likely to Rally After the U.S. Election, Irrespective of Who Wins, History Shows: Van Straten

閱讀更多：歷史顯示，無論誰獲勝，比特幣都可能在美國大選後反彈：Van Straten

Regulatory uncertainty weighs more on altcoins

監管不確定性對山寨幣的影響更大

Altcoins have lagged through this year against bitcoin, in part because of their regulatory ambiguity, K33 Research noted in a Tuesday report. This means that the election results and the perceived outlook for digital asset regulations will matter more for smaller cryptos than BTC, the report added.

K33 Research 在周二的一份報告中指出，山寨幣今年相對於比特幣表現落後，部分原因是其監管模糊。報告補充說，這意味著選舉結果和數位資產監管的預期前景對於小型加密貨幣來說比比特幣更重要。

“Bitcoin’s attributes and wide availability position it to thrive in the medium term, regardless of the [U.S. election] outcome,” K33 Research analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman said. “For altcoins, the election is more sensitive,”

K33 Research 分析師 Vetle Lunde 和 David Zimmerman 表示：“無論（美國大選）結果如何，比特幣的屬性和廣泛的可用性使其能夠在中期內蓬勃發展。” “對於山寨幣來說，選舉更為敏感，”

“This implies that the medium-term path dependency in alts should be more sensitive to the election than BTC,” they added.

他們補充說：“這意味著替代品的中期路徑依賴應該比比特幣對選舉更敏感。”

Macro strength could provide a tailwind

宏觀實力可以提供順風

The elections, and the uncertainty around the outcome weighing on the market, might as well be the inflection point for altcoins starting to catch up with bitcoin, according to David Duong, head of research at Coinbase.

Coinbase 研究主管 David Duong 表示，選舉以及結果的不確定性給市場帶來壓力，也可能成為山寨幣開始趕上比特幣的轉折點。

“I would expect bitcoin dominance to start to kind of plateau here as altcoin names are probably going to take more of a front seat due to the fact that people are going to play them more because of the elections,” said Duong in an interview with CoinDesk.

Duong 在接受採訪時表示：「我預計比特幣的主導地位將開始趨於穩定，因為山寨幣名稱可能會佔據更多的位置，因為人們會因為選舉而更多地玩它們。」CoinDesk。

He said the election will be a catalyst for crypto prices but likely won’t have an outsized impact, as favorable macro conditions will provide a tailwind to the whole asset class.

他表示，這次選舉將成為加密貨幣價格的催化劑，但可能不會產生太大的影響，因為有利的宏觀條件將為整個資產類別提供推動力。

“I would actually say I’m fairly optimistic through probably early to first half of the first quarter of 2025, in part because I think we’re in a very strong macro environment and it’s been very favorable,” he said. “I do think that we’re gonna see us benefit from the elections as well, regardless of who wins.”

他表示：“實際上，我想說的是，我對 2025 年第一季初至上半年都相當樂觀，部分原因是我認為我們處於非常強勁的宏觀環境中，而且情況非常有利。” “我確實認為，無論誰獲勝，我們也會從選舉中受益。”

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