比特币减半前的下跌：暂时的挫折还是抛物线反弹的催化剂？

由于减半前的下跌，加密货币市场出现了大幅下跌，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌了 4.82%。这种低迷延续了看跌趋势，比特币在减半事件前的 30 天内损失了 8.48% 的价值。尽管存在波动和下降趋势，但分析师预计减半后可能出现抛物线上升趋势。

Headline: Bitcoin's Pre-Halving Dip: A Temporary Setback or a Harbinger of a Parabolic Rally?

标题：比特币减半前的下跌：暂时的挫折还是抛物线反弹的预兆？

April 13th, 2024 - The crypto markets have witnessed a sea of red today, as the impending Bitcoin halving casts its shadow over the industry. Bitcoin (BTC), the undisputed king of cryptocurrencies, has been bruised by a 4.82% decline in the past 24 hours. The month-long bearish onslaught has eroded 8.48% of its value, bringing its price down to $67,390.03 as of this writing.

2024 年 4 月 13 日 - 今天，加密货币市场一片红海，即将到来的比特币减半给整个行业蒙上了阴影。比特币（BTC），无可争议的加密货币之王，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 4.82%。截至撰写本文时，长达一个月的看跌冲击已侵蚀其价值 8.48%，使其价格跌至 67,390.03 美元。

The Bitcoin halving, an event scheduled every four years, reduces the issuance rate of new BTC. This intricate design has historically acted as a bullish catalyst, invigorating Bitcoin's ascent. However, the looming halving date has brought with it heightened volatility and a persistent downtrend, leaving the crypto community grappling with uncertainty.

比特币减半是每四年一次的事件，降低了新比特币的发行率。这种复杂的设计在历史上一直充当看涨催化剂，刺激比特币的上涨。然而，即将到来的减半日期带来了波动性的加剧和持续的下降趋势，使加密货币社区面临着不确定性。

Despite the recent price tumble, Bitcoin's market capitalization remains an impressive $1.32 trillion, a testament to its enduring dominance in the digital asset realm. The 24-hour trading volume has spiked to $48 billion, a 61.4% surge, indicating the intense speculation and heightened interest surrounding the impending halving event.

尽管最近价格暴跌，比特币的市值仍然高达 1.32 万亿美元，这证明了其在数字资产领域的持久主导地位。 24 小时交易量已飙升至 480 亿美元，猛增 61.4%，这表明围绕即将到来的减半事件的猜测和兴趣日益浓厚。

Seasoned analysts, while acknowledging the short-term price fluctuations inherent in the crypto realm, maintain a long-term perspective. They anticipate a potential parabolic surge post-halving, drawing inspiration from historical patterns. One prominent Twitter analyst, Rekt Capital, has outlined three distinct phases that typically characterize the halving cycle.

经验丰富的分析师虽然承认加密货币领域固有的短期价格波动，但仍保持长期的观点。他们从历史模式中汲取灵感，预计减半后可能出现抛物线飙升。一位著名的 Twitter 分析师 Rekt Capital 概述了减半周期的三个不同阶段。

Phase 1: Final Pre-Halving Retrace

第一阶段：最终减半前回撤

This phase has already taken hold, with Bitcoin experiencing an 18% drawdown from its recent highs. This retracement, viewed as a final bargain-buying opportunity, is less severe than the 38% and 19% declines observed in the 2016 and 2020 halving cycles, respectively.

这一阶段已经开始，比特币从近期高点下跌了 18%。这次回调被视为最后的逢低买入机会，其严重程度低于 2016 年和 2020 年减半周期中分别观察到的 38% 和 19% 的跌幅。

Phase 2: Re-Accumulation

第二阶段：重新积累

The weeks immediately before and after the halving are expected to be marked by re-accumulation. Bitcoin's price is likely to trade within a narrower range as market participants reassess their positions and wait for fresh catalysts.

减半前后的几周预计将出现重新积累。随着市场参与者重新评估其头寸并等待新的催化剂，比特币的价格可能会在较窄的区间内交易。

Phase 3: Parabolic Uptrend

第三阶段：抛物线上升趋势

This eagerly awaited phase is where Bitcoin's price is predicted to embark on a rapid ascent, potentially eclipsing all previous highs. Historically, this phase has endured for over a year, although some experts speculate that the current market cycle could accelerate this timeline.

在这个备受期待的阶段，比特币的价格预计将开始快速上涨，有可能超越之前的所有高点。从历史上看，这个阶段已经持续了一年多，尽管一些专家推测当前的市场周期可能会加速这个时间表。

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin's price remains bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 75, indicating an overbought condition. This technical pattern suggests that further downside correction could be on the horizon.

周线图上，比特币价格依然看跌，相对强弱指数（RSI）为75，表明处于超买状态。这种技术模式表明，进一步的下行修正可能即将到来。

Analysts predict that Bitcoin's price may revisit levels below $60,000 to clear trendline liquidity and fill the fair value gap before attempting to reclaim the $73,835 peak. Pre-halving dips are not uncommon, and historical precedents suggest that such pullbacks should not come as a surprise to market participants.

分析师预测，比特币的价格可能会重新回到 60,000 美元以下的水平，以清除趋势线流动性并填补公允价值缺口，然后再尝试收复 73,835 美元的峰值。减半前的下跌并不罕见，历史先例表明，这种回调不应让市场参与者感到意外。

The daily chart echoes the bearish sentiment, with Bitcoin currently hovering around the support of an ascending trendline. A breakdown from this support could trigger further selling pressure, as the broader crypto market grapples with heightened volatility and profit-taking ahead of the halving.

日线图呼应了看跌情绪，比特币目前徘徊在上升趋势线的支撑附近。这种支撑的崩溃可能会引发进一步的抛售压力，因为更广泛的加密货币市场在减半之前面临着波动性加剧和获利回吐的问题。

As the halving countdown reaches its final stretch, all eyes will be fixed on Bitcoin's price action, speculating on its potential to ignite a new bullish cycle. With the crypto markets exhibiting heightened volatility, investors and traders brace for an eventful period that could shape the trajectory of the digital asset space for years to come.

随着减半倒计时进入最后阶段，所有人的目光都将集中在比特币的价格走势上，猜测其点燃新的看涨周期的潜力。随着加密货币市场波动性加剧，投资者和交易者准备迎接一个可能塑造未来几年数字资产空间轨迹的多事时期。