比特幣減半前的下跌：暫時的挫折還是拋物線反彈的催化劑？

由於減半前的下跌，加密貨幣市場出現了大幅下跌，比特幣在過去 24 小時內下跌了 4.82%。這種低迷延續了看跌趨勢，比特幣在減半事件前的 30 天內損失了 8.48% 的價值。儘管存在波動和下降趨勢，但分析師預計減半後可能出現拋物線上升趨勢。

Headline: Bitcoin's Pre-Halving Dip: A Temporary Setback or a Harbinger of a Parabolic Rally?

標題：比特幣減半前的下跌：暫時的挫折還是拋物線反彈的預兆？

April 13th, 2024 - The crypto markets have witnessed a sea of red today, as the impending Bitcoin halving casts its shadow over the industry. Bitcoin (BTC), the undisputed king of cryptocurrencies, has been bruised by a 4.82% decline in the past 24 hours. The month-long bearish onslaught has eroded 8.48% of its value, bringing its price down to $67,390.03 as of this writing.

2024 年 4 月 13 日 - 今天，加密貨幣市場一片紅海，即將到來的比特幣減半給整個行業蒙上了陰影。比特幣（BTC），無可爭議的加密貨幣之王，在過去 24 小時內下跌了 4.82%。截至撰寫本文時，長達一個月的看跌衝擊已侵蝕其價值 8.48%，使其價格跌至 67,390.03 美元。

The Bitcoin halving, an event scheduled every four years, reduces the issuance rate of new BTC. This intricate design has historically acted as a bullish catalyst, invigorating Bitcoin's ascent. However, the looming halving date has brought with it heightened volatility and a persistent downtrend, leaving the crypto community grappling with uncertainty.

比特幣減半是每四年一次的事件，降低了新比特幣的發行率。這種複雜的設計在歷史上一直充當看漲催化劑，刺激比特幣的上漲。然而，即將到來的減半日期帶來了波動性的加劇和持續的下降趨勢，使加密貨幣社群面臨不確定性。

Despite the recent price tumble, Bitcoin's market capitalization remains an impressive $1.32 trillion, a testament to its enduring dominance in the digital asset realm. The 24-hour trading volume has spiked to $48 billion, a 61.4% surge, indicating the intense speculation and heightened interest surrounding the impending halving event.

儘管最近價格暴跌，比特幣的市值仍高達 1.32 兆美元，證明了其在數位資產領域的持久主導地位。 24 小時交易量已飆升至 480 億美元，猛增 61.4%，這表明圍繞即將到來的減半事件的猜測和興趣日益濃厚。

Seasoned analysts, while acknowledging the short-term price fluctuations inherent in the crypto realm, maintain a long-term perspective. They anticipate a potential parabolic surge post-halving, drawing inspiration from historical patterns. One prominent Twitter analyst, Rekt Capital, has outlined three distinct phases that typically characterize the halving cycle.

經驗豐富的分析師雖然承認加密貨幣領域固有的短期價格波動，但仍保持長期的觀點。他們從歷史模式中汲取靈感，預計減半後可能出現拋物線飆升。一位著名的 Twitter 分析師 Rekt Capital 概述了減半週期的三個不同階段。

Phase 1: Final Pre-Halving Retrace

第一階段：最終減半前回撤

This phase has already taken hold, with Bitcoin experiencing an 18% drawdown from its recent highs. This retracement, viewed as a final bargain-buying opportunity, is less severe than the 38% and 19% declines observed in the 2016 and 2020 halving cycles, respectively.

這一階段已經開始，比特幣從近期高點下跌了 18%。這次回檔被視為最後的逢低買入機會，其嚴重程度低於 2016 年和 2020 年減半週期中分別觀察到的 38% 和 19% 的跌幅。

Phase 2: Re-Accumulation

第二階段：重新積累

The weeks immediately before and after the halving are expected to be marked by re-accumulation. Bitcoin's price is likely to trade within a narrower range as market participants reassess their positions and wait for fresh catalysts.

減半前後的幾週預計將出現重新累積。隨著市場參與者重新評估其部位並等待新的催化劑，比特幣的價格可能會在較窄的區間內交易。

Phase 3: Parabolic Uptrend

第三階段：拋物線上升趨勢

This eagerly awaited phase is where Bitcoin's price is predicted to embark on a rapid ascent, potentially eclipsing all previous highs. Historically, this phase has endured for over a year, although some experts speculate that the current market cycle could accelerate this timeline.

在這個備受期待的階段，比特幣的價格預計將開始快速上漲，並有可能超越之前的所有高點。從歷史上看，這個階段已經持續了一年多，儘管一些專家推測當前的市場週期可能會加速這個時間表。

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin's price remains bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 75, indicating an overbought condition. This technical pattern suggests that further downside correction could be on the horizon.

在周線圖上，比特幣價格仍看跌，相對強弱指數（RSI）為75，顯示處於超買狀態。這種技術模式表明，進一步的下行修正可能即將到來。

Analysts predict that Bitcoin's price may revisit levels below $60,000 to clear trendline liquidity and fill the fair value gap before attempting to reclaim the $73,835 peak. Pre-halving dips are not uncommon, and historical precedents suggest that such pullbacks should not come as a surprise to market participants.

分析師預測，比特幣的價格可能會重新回到 60,000 美元以下的水平，以清除趨勢線流動性並填補公允價值缺口，然後再嘗試收復 73,835 美元的峰值。減半前的下跌並不罕見，歷史先例表明，這種回調不應讓市場參與者感到驚訝。

The daily chart echoes the bearish sentiment, with Bitcoin currently hovering around the support of an ascending trendline. A breakdown from this support could trigger further selling pressure, as the broader crypto market grapples with heightened volatility and profit-taking ahead of the halving.

日線圖呼應了看跌情緒，比特幣目前徘徊在上升趨勢線的支撐附近。這種支撐的崩潰可能會引發進一步的拋售壓力，因為更廣泛的加密貨幣市場在減半之前面臨波動性加劇和獲利回吐的問題。

As the halving countdown reaches its final stretch, all eyes will be fixed on Bitcoin's price action, speculating on its potential to ignite a new bullish cycle. With the crypto markets exhibiting heightened volatility, investors and traders brace for an eventful period that could shape the trajectory of the digital asset space for years to come.

隨著減半倒數進入最後階段，所有人的目光都將集中在比特幣的價格走勢上，猜測其點燃新的看漲週期的潛力。隨著加密貨幣市場波動性加劇，投資者和交易者準備迎接一個可能塑造未來幾年數位資產空間軌蹟的多事時期。