比特币的选举后反弹尚未结束——原因如下

11月4日至11月22日期间，比特币（BTC 2.87%）从67,000美元飙升至99,000美元以上。

Bitcoin (BTC 2.87%) price skyrocketed from $67,000 to a price above $99,000 in the period November 4 to November 22. Pro-crypto optimism was palpable, investors were euphoric about Bitcoin’s future growth potential, and a final climb over the $100,000 mark seemed like a sure thing.

11 月 4 日至 11 月 22 日期间，比特币（BTC 2.87%）价格从 67,000 美元飙升至 99,000 美元以上。支持加密货币的乐观情绪显而易见，投资者对比特币未来的增长潜力感到乐观，最终突破 100,000 美元大关似乎是可能的。肯定的事情。

But the past few days have seen an unexpected retreat, with the price of Bitcoin now hovering around $93,000.

但过去几天比特币出现了意外回落，目前价格徘徊在 93,000 美元左右。

So, is the party over for Bitcoin?

那么，比特币的盛宴结束了吗？

While there’s certainly a case to be made that Bitcoin might have gone up too far, too fast, I think there’s still plenty of upside potential as we head into 2025. Here’s why.

虽然确实有理由认为比特币可能上涨得太远、太快，但我认为，进入 2025 年，比特币仍然有很大的上涨潜力。原因如下。

The psychology of Bitcoin

比特币的心理学

You don’t need to be an economist to understand Bitcoin. It would help more if you were a psychologist.

你不需要成为一名经济学家才能理解比特币。如果您是一名心理学家，这会更有帮助。

That’s because market sentiment is such a major factor in how investors perceive Bitcoin. The crypto Fear and Greed Index is useful for tracking this sentiment. It shows that even experienced crypto investors can oscillate between fearful and greedy on a daily, if not hourly, basis.

这是因为市场情绪是投资者如何看待比特币的一个主要因素。加密货币恐惧和贪婪指数对于跟踪这种情绪非常有用。它表明，即使是经验丰富的加密货币投资者，每天（如果不是每小时）也会在恐惧和贪婪之间摇摆。

Right now, all anyone can focus on is the psychologically important $100,000 price level. Almost everyone expected a certain amount of profit-taking as soon as Bitcoin hit that level, and now it appears that some investors got started a little bit early. After all, Bitcoin had been on an absolute rocket ship after the election — up more than 40% at one point — and a pullback of some kind was almost inevitable.

目前，所有人都可以关注具有重要心理意义的 10 万美元价格水平。几乎所有人都预计，一旦比特币触及该水平，就会出现一定程度的获利了结，而现在看来，一些投资者开始得有点早了。毕竟，比特币在大选后绝对是一艘火箭——一度上涨超过 40%——某种形式的回调几乎是不可避免的。

In addition to being the sort of nice, round number that gets plenty of eyeballs and clicks, a price of $100,000 is important for another reason: it would make Bitcoin a $2 trillion asset. Only a handful of publicly traded stocks have ever hit a $2 trillion valuation, so Bitcoin would be a very select company. It recently passed Meta Platforms in market cap and is now on the way to passing Alphabet, too.

除了是那种吸引大量眼球和点击的漂亮整数之外，10 万美元的价格也很重要，还有另一个原因：它将使比特币成为 2 万亿美元的资产。只有少数公开交易的股票估值曾达到 2 万亿美元，因此比特币将是一家非常精选的公司。它的市值最近超过了 Meta Platforms，现在也正在超越 Alphabet。

So, it’s easy to understand why investors might be taking a time-out right now when it comes to Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin really worth more than Silicon Valley’s top tech companies? Indeed, a lot of investors are talking about the need to take a breather and figure out how much Bitcoin should really be worth.

因此，很容易理解为什么投资者现在可能会暂停投资比特币。比特币真的比硅谷顶级科技公司更值钱吗？事实上，许多投资者都在谈论需要喘口气，弄清楚比特币的真正价值是多少。

Key catalysts for Bitcoin

比特币的关键催化剂

Heading into 2025, there are at least three different catalysts that could push Bitcoin higher. The first of these is the continued inflow of new money into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. The amount of new money these ETFs have been able to attract is nothing short of astounding.

进入 2025 年，至少有三种不同的催化剂可以推动比特币走高。首先是新资金持续流入现货比特币 ETF。这些 ETF 能够吸引的新资金数量简直令人震惊。

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT 6.06%), for example, just passed $40 billion in assets under management. By comparison, that’s more than the iShares Gold Trust has been able to attract in nearly 20 years!

例如，iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT 6.06%) 管理的资产刚刚超过 400 亿美元。相比之下，这比 iShares Gold Trust 近 20 年来能够吸引的资金还要多！

Another key catalyst is the ability to get some movement on the pro-crypto promises that incoming president Donald Trump made on the campaign trail. One of those promises — remove SEC head Gary Gensler from his post on day one — is already in motion, with Gensler announcing that he would step down in January.

另一个关键催化剂是能够在即将上任的总统唐纳德·特朗普在竞选过程中做出的支持加密货币的承诺上取得一些进展。其中一项承诺——在第一天就将 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 免职——已经开始实施，詹斯勒宣布他将于一月份辞职。

But what about the promise to get some pro-crypto legislation on the books? Or the even bigger promise to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve? Movement on either one of those fronts would be huge for Bitcoin. The creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, for example, would result in the U.S. government committing to the purchase of 1 million Bitcoins over a five-year period. That would contribute significant upward buying pressure for Bitcoin.

但是，关于制定一些支持加密货币立法的承诺又如何呢？还是建立比特币战略储备的更大承诺？对于比特币来说，其中任何一个方面的变动都将是巨大的。例如，建立比特币战略储备将导致美国政府承诺在五年内购买 100 万个比特币。这将为比特币带来巨大的上行购买压力。

“Straight Bitcoin”

“直接比特币”

So, no, I don’t think Bitcoin’s post-election rally is over. Not by any means. Bitcoin could easily hit the psychologically important $100,000 mark by the end of the year. And from there, it would be off to the races. The next major date to put on your calendar would then be January 20, which is Inauguration Day. That’s when Trump’s pro-crypto agenda could take effect.

所以，不，我不认为比特币的选举后反弹已经结束。无论如何都不会。到今年年底，比特币可能会轻松触及具有重要心理意义的 10 万美元大关。从那里开始，比赛就开始了。日历上的下一个重要日期将是 1 月 20 日，即就职日。届时特朗普的支持加密货币议程可能会生效。

It’s really just a question of how you want to get your exposure to Bitcoin. According to billionaire investor Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, the best way to get your exposure is “straight Bitcoin.” In other words, you can buy Bitcoin directly in the spot cryptocurrency exchange, or via a spot Bitcoin ETF.

这实际上只是一个你想如何接触比特币的问题。 Galaxy Digital 首席执行官、亿万富翁投资者迈克·诺沃格拉茨 (Mike Novogratz) 表示，获得曝光的最佳方式是“直接比特币”。换句话说，您可以直接在现货加密货币交易所购买比特币，或者通过现货比特币 ETF 购买比特币。

Now is no time to get cute by investing in Bitcoin proxy stocks such as MicroStrategy, Coinbase Global, or any of the big Bitcoin mining stocks.

现在还不是投资比特币代理股票（例如 MicroStrategy、Coinbase Global 或任何大型比特币矿业股票）的时候。

As we get closer to the end of the year, I fully expect Bitcoin to go on another heater. But be forewarned: Bitcoin rarely goes straight up. Based on its track record of high volatility, getting

随着年底的临近，我完全预计比特币会再次升温。但请预先警告：比特币很少会直线上涨。根据其高波动性的记录，