比特幣的選舉後反彈尚未結束——原因如下

11月4日至11月22日期間，比特幣（BTC 2.87%）從67,000美元飆升至99,000美元以上。

Bitcoin (BTC 2.87%) price skyrocketed from $67,000 to a price above $99,000 in the period November 4 to November 22. Pro-crypto optimism was palpable, investors were euphoric about Bitcoin’s future growth potential, and a final climb over the $100,000 mark seemed like a sure thing.

11 月4 日至11 月22 日期間，比特幣（BTC 2.87%）價格從67,000 美元飆升至99,000 美元以上。 100,000 美元大關似乎是可能的。

But the past few days have seen an unexpected retreat, with the price of Bitcoin now hovering around $93,000.

但過去幾天比特幣出現了意外回落，目前價格徘徊在 93,000 美元左右。

So, is the party over for Bitcoin?

那麼，比特幣的盛宴結束了嗎？

While there’s certainly a case to be made that Bitcoin might have gone up too far, too fast, I think there’s still plenty of upside potential as we head into 2025. Here’s why.

雖然確實有理由認為比特幣可能會上漲得太遠、太快，但我認為，進入 2025 年，比特幣仍然有很大的上漲潛力。

The psychology of Bitcoin

比特幣的心理學

You don’t need to be an economist to understand Bitcoin. It would help more if you were a psychologist.

你不需要成為經濟學家才能理解比特幣。如果您是心理學家，這會更有幫助。

That’s because market sentiment is such a major factor in how investors perceive Bitcoin. The crypto Fear and Greed Index is useful for tracking this sentiment. It shows that even experienced crypto investors can oscillate between fearful and greedy on a daily, if not hourly, basis.

這是因為市場情緒是投資人如何看待比特幣的一個主要因素。加密貨幣恐懼和貪婪指數對於追蹤這種情緒非常有用。它表明，即使是經驗豐富的加密貨幣投資者，每天（如果不是每小時）也會在恐懼和貪婪之間搖擺。

Right now, all anyone can focus on is the psychologically important $100,000 price level. Almost everyone expected a certain amount of profit-taking as soon as Bitcoin hit that level, and now it appears that some investors got started a little bit early. After all, Bitcoin had been on an absolute rocket ship after the election — up more than 40% at one point — and a pullback of some kind was almost inevitable.

目前，所有人都可以關注具有重要心理意義的 10 萬美元價格水準。幾乎所有人都預計，一旦比特幣觸及該水平，就會出現一定程度的獲利了結，而現在看來，一些投資者開始得有點早了。畢竟，比特幣在大選後絕對是一艘火箭——一度上漲超過 40%——某種形式的回檔幾乎是不可避免的。

In addition to being the sort of nice, round number that gets plenty of eyeballs and clicks, a price of $100,000 is important for another reason: it would make Bitcoin a $2 trillion asset. Only a handful of publicly traded stocks have ever hit a $2 trillion valuation, so Bitcoin would be a very select company. It recently passed Meta Platforms in market cap and is now on the way to passing Alphabet, too.

除了是那種吸引大量眼球和點擊的漂亮整數之外，10 萬美元的價格也很重要，還有另一個原因：它將使比特幣成為 2 兆美元的資產。只有少數公開交易的股票估值曾達到 2 兆美元，因此比特幣將是一家非常精選的公司。它的市值最近超過了 Meta Platforms，現在也正在超越 Alphabet。

So, it’s easy to understand why investors might be taking a time-out right now when it comes to Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin really worth more than Silicon Valley’s top tech companies? Indeed, a lot of investors are talking about the need to take a breather and figure out how much Bitcoin should really be worth.

因此，很容易理解為什麼投資者現在可能會暫停投資比特幣。比特幣真的比矽谷頂級科技公司更值錢嗎？事實上，許多投資者都在談論需要喘口氣，弄清楚比特幣的真正價值是多少。

Key catalysts for Bitcoin

比特幣的關鍵催化劑

Heading into 2025, there are at least three different catalysts that could push Bitcoin higher. The first of these is the continued inflow of new money into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. The amount of new money these ETFs have been able to attract is nothing short of astounding.

進入 2025 年，至少有三種不同的催化劑可以推動比特幣走高。首先是新資金持續流入現貨比特幣 ETF。這些 ETF 能夠吸引的新資金數量簡直令人震驚。

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT 6.06%), for example, just passed $40 billion in assets under management. By comparison, that’s more than the iShares Gold Trust has been able to attract in nearly 20 years!

例如，iShares 比特幣信託 (IBIT 6.06%) 管理的資產剛超過 400 億美元。相較之下，這比 iShares Gold Trust 近 20 年來能夠吸引的資金還要多！

Another key catalyst is the ability to get some movement on the pro-crypto promises that incoming president Donald Trump made on the campaign trail. One of those promises — remove SEC head Gary Gensler from his post on day one — is already in motion, with Gensler announcing that he would step down in January.

另一個關鍵催化劑是能夠在即將上任的總統唐納德·川普在競選過程中做出的支持加密貨幣的承諾上取得一些進展。其中一項承諾——在第一天就將 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 免職——已經開始實施，詹斯勒宣布他將於一月份辭職。

But what about the promise to get some pro-crypto legislation on the books? Or the even bigger promise to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve? Movement on either one of those fronts would be huge for Bitcoin. The creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, for example, would result in the U.S. government committing to the purchase of 1 million Bitcoins over a five-year period. That would contribute significant upward buying pressure for Bitcoin.

但是，關於制定一些支持加密貨幣立法的承諾又如何呢？還是建立比特幣戰略儲備的更大承諾？對於比特幣來說，其中任何一個方面的變動都將是巨大的。例如，建立比特幣戰略儲備將導緻美國政府承諾在五年內購買 100 萬個比特幣。這將為比特幣帶來巨大的上行購買壓力。

“Straight Bitcoin”

“直接比特幣”

So, no, I don’t think Bitcoin’s post-election rally is over. Not by any means. Bitcoin could easily hit the psychologically important $100,000 mark by the end of the year. And from there, it would be off to the races. The next major date to put on your calendar would then be January 20, which is Inauguration Day. That’s when Trump’s pro-crypto agenda could take effect.

所以，不，我不認為比特幣的選舉後反彈已經結束。無論如何都不會。到今年年底，比特幣可能會輕鬆觸及具有重要心理意義的 10 萬美元大關。從那裡開始，比賽就開始了。日曆上的下一個重要日期將是 1 月 20 日，即就職日。屆時川普的支持加密貨幣議程可能會生效。

It’s really just a question of how you want to get your exposure to Bitcoin. According to billionaire investor Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, the best way to get your exposure is “straight Bitcoin.” In other words, you can buy Bitcoin directly in the spot cryptocurrency exchange, or via a spot Bitcoin ETF.

這其實只是一個你想如何接觸比特幣的問題。 Galaxy Digital 執行長、億萬富翁投資者 Mike Novogratz 表示，獲得曝光的最佳方式是「直接比特幣」。換句話說，您可以直接在現貨加密貨幣交易所購買比特幣，或透過現貨比特幣 ETF 購買比特幣。

Now is no time to get cute by investing in Bitcoin proxy stocks such as MicroStrategy, Coinbase Global, or any of the big Bitcoin mining stocks.

現在還不是投資比特幣代理股票（例如 MicroStrategy、Coinbase Global 或任何大型比特幣礦業股票）的時候。

As we get closer to the end of the year, I fully expect Bitcoin to go on another heater. But be forewarned: Bitcoin rarely goes straight up. Based on its track record of high volatility, getting

隨著年底的臨近，我完全預期比特幣會再次升溫。但請預先警告：比特幣很少會直線上漲。根據其高波動性的記錄，