比特币市场是否进入长期下降的阶段？加密首席执行官Ki Young Ju认为这是如此。

这场话语的这种根本转变更加令人惊讶，因为他在三月初声称，尽管放慢了牛的速度。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has made a surprising claim that the bitcoin bull cycle is over, and six to twelve months of a bearish or sideways market are expected.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju提出了令人惊讶的声称，即比特币牛周期结束了，预计比特币或十二个月的市场。

The CEO of CryptoQuant is known for his on-chain analyses, which have often proven to be accurate. Earlier in March, he had stated that the bull run is slowing down but not over. However, his cutting verdict has affected investor confidence and brought back fears of a prolonged correction.

CryptoQuant的首席执行官以其链分析而闻名，这些分析通常被证明是准确的。 3月初，他说公牛的奔跑正在放慢脚步，但没有结束。但是，他的裁决影响了投资者的信心，并带回了对长期更正的恐惧。

To elaborate on his stance, Ki Young Ju highlighted several negative on-chain indicators. He pointed out that new entrants in the current momentum are incurring losses, which could dampen interest in bitcoin further in the coming months.

为了详细说明他的立场，Ki Young Ju强调了几个负面的链链指标。他指出，当前势头中的新进入者正在造成损失，这可能在未来几个月内进一步降低对比特币的兴趣。

“I think BTC bull cycle is over, and we’ll have 6-12 months of bear or sideways market.

“我认为BTC牛周期已经结束，我们将拥有6-12个月的熊或侧向市场。

- New entrants are losing money in this market. Interest in BTC will decrease as we approach the year-end.

- 新进入者在这个市场上亏钱。随着我们接近年底，对BTC的兴趣将减少。

- BTC hash price is getting lower. This is a sign of a bear market. As the hash price decreases, profitability for miners also decreases. Then, the price of BTC will decrease further in a vicious cycle.

-BTC哈希价格越来越低。这是熊市的标志。随着哈希价格的下降，矿工的盈利能力也会下降。然后，BTC的价格将在恶性循环中进一步下降。

- As the price of BTC decreases, the demand for coins from exchanges will increase. When the market is bullish, users tend to withdraw coins from exchanges to use them in DeFi or hold them in personal wallets. However, as the price decreases, the demand for coins from exchanges will increase, and the selling pressure will increase.

- 随着BTC的价格降低，交易所对硬币的需求将增加。当市场看涨时，用户倾向于将硬币从交换中提取以在Defi中使用或将其放在个人钱包中。但是，随着价格降低，交易所硬币的需求将增加，销售压力将增加。

- As the price decreases, the percentage of addresses in profit will decrease. Currently, about 70% of bitcoin addresses are in profit. However, if the price decreases further, the percentage of addresses in profit will decrease, and those who have not sold their coins at a profit will be forced to sell their coins at a loss. This will put more downward pressure on the price.

- 随着价格下降，利润地址的百分比将下降。目前，约有70％的比特币地址是有利可图的。但是，如果价格进一步下降，利润地址的百分比将下降，那些未以利润出售硬币的人将被迫以亏损出售其硬币。这将给价格带来更大的下降压力。

- The price of BTC is expected to decrease further as it approaches the lower band of the Bitcoin price band defined by the ratio of BTC hash price to BCH hash price. The price of BTC is expected to decrease further as it approaches the lower band of the Bitcoin price band defined by the ratio of BTC hash price to BCH hash price. This is because the price of BCH is expected to increase as the price of BTC decreases, widening the price band and putting more downward pressure on the price of BTC.

- 预计BTC的价格将在接近BTC Hash价格与BCH Hash价格之比所定义的比特币价格频段的较低频段时进一步降低。随着BTC Hash价格与BCH Hash价格的比率，预计BTC的价格将进一步降低。这是因为随着BTC的价格下降，扩大价格频段并给BTC的价格带来更大的下降压力，BCH的价格预计会上涨。

This stance contrasts with more optimistic outlooks shared by other crypto analysts. Seth, a closely followed crypto analyst, highlights a major element that could reignite bitcoin: the global M2 money supply, which has just reached a new historical peak.

这种立场与其他加密分析师共享的更乐观的前景形成对比。紧随其后的加密分析师塞斯（Seth）强调了一个可以重新点燃比特币的主要要素：全球M2货币供应，刚刚达到了一个新的历史高峰。

This monetary expansion could be fuel for a new influx of liquidity into risky assets.

这种货币的扩张可能会导致新的流动性涌入风险资产。

“Whenever the global money supply explodes, bitcoin benefits. We are about to witness a new rally,” he stated on March 17 in a post on the X platform.

他在3月17日在X平台上的帖子中说：“每当全球货币供应量爆炸时，比特币福利。我们将见证新的集会。”

Other analysts, such as Dave Weisberger, CEO of CoinRoutes, remind us that bitcoin has historically followed a correlation with the growth of the money supply.

CoinRoutes首席执行官Dave Weisberger等其他分析师提醒我们，比特币历来与货币供应的增长有关。

If this trend continues, BTC could reach a new ATH as early as April. A forecast shared by Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, who sees over a 50 % chance of bitcoin hitting a new peak by the end of June.

如果这种趋势持续下去，BTC早在四月就可以达到新的ATH。天鹅比特币首席执行官科里·克利普斯滕（Cory Klippsten）共享的预测，他看到比特币在6月底达到了新的高峰。

In light of these elements, it appears that the bearish thesis is not unanimous, and that external economic factors could still drive bitcoin to new records. History has shown that brutal corrections in bitcoin do not always mark the end of a cycle. While Ki Young Ju’s on-chain analysis relies on clear signals, other factors such as global monetary policy and institutional investor behaviors could still favor a rebound. In this context, the battle between proponents of a continued bullish trend and those advocating for a prolonged bearish market is far from settled.

鉴于这些要素，看跌论文似乎不是一致的，而且外部经济因素仍然可以推动比特币进入新记录。历史记录表明，比特币中的残酷校正并不总是标志着周期的结束。尽管Ki Young Ju的链链分析依赖于明确的信号，但其他因素，例如全球货币政策和机构投资者行为，仍然可能有利于反弹。在这种情况下，持续看涨趋势的支持者与倡导长时间看跌市场的支持者之间的斗争远非如此。

The post Bitcoin (BTC) bull cycle is over, predicts CryptoQuant CEO appeared first on Cointribune.

比特币后（BTC）牛周期结束了，预测隐式CEO首先出现在Cointribune上。

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