Is the bitcoin market entering a phase of prolonged decline? CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju thinks so.

This radical shift in discourse is all the more surprising as he claimed earlier in March that the bull run was still in place, albeit slowed down.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has made a surprising claim that the bitcoin bull cycle is over, and six to twelve months of a bearish or sideways market are expected.

The CEO of CryptoQuant is known for his on-chain analyses, which have often proven to be accurate. Earlier in March, he had stated that the bull run is slowing down but not over. However, his cutting verdict has affected investor confidence and brought back fears of a prolonged correction.

To elaborate on his stance, Ki Young Ju highlighted several negative on-chain indicators. He pointed out that new entrants in the current momentum are incurring losses, which could dampen interest in bitcoin further in the coming months.

“I think BTC bull cycle is over, and we’ll have 6-12 months of bear or sideways market.

- New entrants are losing money in this market. Interest in BTC will decrease as we approach the year-end.

- BTC hash price is getting lower. This is a sign of a bear market. As the hash price decreases, profitability for miners also decreases. Then, the price of BTC will decrease further in a vicious cycle.

- As the price of BTC decreases, the demand for coins from exchanges will increase. When the market is bullish, users tend to withdraw coins from exchanges to use them in DeFi or hold them in personal wallets. However, as the price decreases, the demand for coins from exchanges will increase, and the selling pressure will increase.

- As the price decreases, the percentage of addresses in profit will decrease. Currently, about 70% of bitcoin addresses are in profit. However, if the price decreases further, the percentage of addresses in profit will decrease, and those who have not sold their coins at a profit will be forced to sell their coins at a loss. This will put more downward pressure on the price.

- The price of BTC is expected to decrease further as it approaches the lower band of the Bitcoin price band defined by the ratio of BTC hash price to BCH hash price. The price of BTC is expected to decrease further as it approaches the lower band of the Bitcoin price band defined by the ratio of BTC hash price to BCH hash price. This is because the price of BCH is expected to increase as the price of BTC decreases, widening the price band and putting more downward pressure on the price of BTC.

This stance contrasts with more optimistic outlooks shared by other crypto analysts. Seth, a closely followed crypto analyst, highlights a major element that could reignite bitcoin: the global M2 money supply, which has just reached a new historical peak.

This monetary expansion could be fuel for a new influx of liquidity into risky assets.

“Whenever the global money supply explodes, bitcoin benefits. We are about to witness a new rally,” he stated on March 17 in a post on the X platform.

Other analysts, such as Dave Weisberger, CEO of CoinRoutes, remind us that bitcoin has historically followed a correlation with the growth of the money supply.

If this trend continues, BTC could reach a new ATH as early as April. A forecast shared by Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, who sees over a 50 % chance of bitcoin hitting a new peak by the end of June.

In light of these elements, it appears that the bearish thesis is not unanimous, and that external economic factors could still drive bitcoin to new records. History has shown that brutal corrections in bitcoin do not always mark the end of a cycle. While Ki Young Ju’s on-chain analysis relies on clear signals, other factors such as global monetary policy and institutional investor behaviors could still favor a rebound. In this context, the battle between proponents of a continued bullish trend and those advocating for a prolonged bearish market is far from settled.

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