比特幣市場是否進入長期下降的階段？加密首席執行官Ki Young Ju認為這是如此。

這場話語的這種根本轉變更加令人驚訝，因為他在三月初聲稱，儘管放慢了牛的速度。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has made a surprising claim that the bitcoin bull cycle is over, and six to twelve months of a bearish or sideways market are expected.

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju提出了令人驚訝的聲稱，即比特幣牛週期結束了，預計比特幣或十二個月的市場。

The CEO of CryptoQuant is known for his on-chain analyses, which have often proven to be accurate. Earlier in March, he had stated that the bull run is slowing down but not over. However, his cutting verdict has affected investor confidence and brought back fears of a prolonged correction.

CryptoQuant的首席執行官以其鏈分析而聞名，這些分析通常被證明是準確的。 3月初，他說公牛的奔跑正在放慢腳步，但沒有結束。但是，他的裁決影響了投資者的信心，並帶回了對長期更正的恐懼。

To elaborate on his stance, Ki Young Ju highlighted several negative on-chain indicators. He pointed out that new entrants in the current momentum are incurring losses, which could dampen interest in bitcoin further in the coming months.

為了詳細說明他的立場，Ki Young Ju強調了幾個負面的鍊鍊指標。他指出，當前勢頭中的新進入者正在造成損失，這可能在未來幾個月內進一步降低對比特幣的興趣。

“I think BTC bull cycle is over, and we’ll have 6-12 months of bear or sideways market.

“我認為BTC牛週期已經結束，我們將擁有6-12個月的熊或側向市場。

- New entrants are losing money in this market. Interest in BTC will decrease as we approach the year-end.

- 新進入者在這個市場上虧錢。隨著我們接近年底，對BTC的興趣將減少。

- BTC hash price is getting lower. This is a sign of a bear market. As the hash price decreases, profitability for miners also decreases. Then, the price of BTC will decrease further in a vicious cycle.

-BTC哈希價格越來越低。這是熊市的標誌。隨著哈希價格的下降，礦工的盈利能力也會下降。然後，BTC的價格將在惡性循環中進一步下降。

- As the price of BTC decreases, the demand for coins from exchanges will increase. When the market is bullish, users tend to withdraw coins from exchanges to use them in DeFi or hold them in personal wallets. However, as the price decreases, the demand for coins from exchanges will increase, and the selling pressure will increase.

- 隨著BTC的價格降低，交易所對硬幣的需求將增加。當市場看漲時，用戶傾向於將硬幣從交換中提取以在Defi中使用或將其放在個人錢包中。但是，隨著價格降低，交易所硬幣的需求將增加，銷售壓力將增加。

- As the price decreases, the percentage of addresses in profit will decrease. Currently, about 70% of bitcoin addresses are in profit. However, if the price decreases further, the percentage of addresses in profit will decrease, and those who have not sold their coins at a profit will be forced to sell their coins at a loss. This will put more downward pressure on the price.

- 隨著價格下降，利潤地址的百分比將下降。目前，約有70％的比特幣地址是有利可圖的。但是，如果價格進一步下降，利潤地址的百分比將下降，那些未以利潤出售硬幣的人將被迫以虧損出售其硬幣。這將給價格帶來更大的下降壓力。

- The price of BTC is expected to decrease further as it approaches the lower band of the Bitcoin price band defined by the ratio of BTC hash price to BCH hash price. The price of BTC is expected to decrease further as it approaches the lower band of the Bitcoin price band defined by the ratio of BTC hash price to BCH hash price. This is because the price of BCH is expected to increase as the price of BTC decreases, widening the price band and putting more downward pressure on the price of BTC.

- 預計BTC的價格將在接近BTC Hash價格與BCH Hash價格之比所定義的比特幣價格頻段的較低頻段時進一步降低。隨著BTC Hash價格與BCH Hash價格的比率，預計BTC的價格將進一步降低。這是因為隨著BTC的價格下降，擴大價格頻段並給BTC的價格帶來更大的下降壓力，BCH的價格預計會上漲。

This stance contrasts with more optimistic outlooks shared by other crypto analysts. Seth, a closely followed crypto analyst, highlights a major element that could reignite bitcoin: the global M2 money supply, which has just reached a new historical peak.

這種立場與其他加密分析師共享的更樂觀的前景形成對比。緊隨其後的加密分析師塞斯（Seth）強調了一個可以重新點燃比特幣的主要要素：全球M2貨幣供應，剛剛達到了一個新的歷史高峰。

This monetary expansion could be fuel for a new influx of liquidity into risky assets.

這種貨幣的擴張可能會導致新的流動性湧入風險資產。

“Whenever the global money supply explodes, bitcoin benefits. We are about to witness a new rally,” he stated on March 17 in a post on the X platform.

他在3月17日在X平台上的帖子中說：“每當全球貨幣供應量爆炸時，比特幣福利。我們將見證新的集會。”

Other analysts, such as Dave Weisberger, CEO of CoinRoutes, remind us that bitcoin has historically followed a correlation with the growth of the money supply.

CoinRoutes首席執行官Dave Weisberger等其他分析師提醒我們，比特幣歷來與貨幣供應的增長有關。

If this trend continues, BTC could reach a new ATH as early as April. A forecast shared by Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, who sees over a 50 % chance of bitcoin hitting a new peak by the end of June.

如果這種趨勢持續下去，BTC早在四月就可以達到新的ATH。天鵝比特幣首席執行官科里·克利普斯滕（Cory Klippsten）共享的預測，他看到比特幣在6月底達到了新的高峰。

In light of these elements, it appears that the bearish thesis is not unanimous, and that external economic factors could still drive bitcoin to new records. History has shown that brutal corrections in bitcoin do not always mark the end of a cycle. While Ki Young Ju’s on-chain analysis relies on clear signals, other factors such as global monetary policy and institutional investor behaviors could still favor a rebound. In this context, the battle between proponents of a continued bullish trend and those advocating for a prolonged bearish market is far from settled.

鑑於這些要素，看跌論文似乎不是一致的，而且外部經濟因素仍然可以推動比特幣進入新記錄。歷史記錄表明，比特幣中的殘酷校正並不總是標誌著周期的結束。儘管Ki Young Ju的鍊鍊分析依賴於明確的信號，但其他因素，例如全球貨幣政策和機構投資者行為，仍然可能有利於反彈。在這種情況下，持續看漲趨勢的支持者與倡導長時間看跌市場的支持者之間的鬥爭遠非如此。

The post Bitcoin (BTC) bull cycle is over, predicts CryptoQuant CEO appeared first on Cointribune.

比特幣後（BTC）牛週期結束了，預測隱式CEO首先出現在Cointribune上。

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