比特币市场低迷即将来临吗？

比特币和整体市场在今年第一周获得了一些势头后似乎已经稳定下来。不幸的是，该行业似乎又回到了起点。

Bitcoin’s price performance might be set to experience some turbulence following the recent approval of the US Department of Justice (DOJ) plan to sell off its seized Bitcoin assets, with blockchain analytics firm Glassnode discussing the potential impact in its latest report on the X platform.

美国司法部 (DOJ) 最近批准出售其扣押的比特币资产的计划后，比特币的价格表现可能会经历一些动荡，区块链分析公司 Glassnode 在其关于 X 平台的最新报告中讨论了潜在影响。

As reported by Bitcoinist, the DOJ has been given the go-ahead to sell over 69,000 BTC (valued at over $6 billion at current market price) in a move that could significantly influence the cryptocurrency market.

据 Bitcoinist 报道，司法部已获准出售超过 69,000 枚 BTC（按当前市场价格计算价值超过 60 亿美元），此举可能会对加密货币市场产生重大影响。

In its analysis, Glassnode highlights past instances of large-scale Bitcoin sales by government entities, beginning with the German administration’s sale of 56,000 BTC in July 2024. Despite the substantial sell-off, the market reportedly absorbed the downward pressure, and the Bitcoin price surged from $53,000 to $68,000 instead of crashing.

Glassnode 在分析中强调了政府实体过去大规模出售比特币的实例，首先是德国政府在 2024 年 7 月出售了 56,000 枚比特币。尽管出现大幅抛售，但据报道市场吸收了下行压力，比特币价格也随之上涨。从 53,000 美元飙升至 68,000 美元，而不是暴跌。

However, Glassnode notes that this outcome may not always hold true for Bitcoin’s price when significant amounts of BTC are sold. For this specific scenario, the on-chain analytics firm points to two metrics — exchange netflows and net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) — to gauge how the market will likely react to a potential DOJ sale.

然而，Glassnode 指出，当大量比特币被出售时，这一结果可能并不总是适用于比特币的价格。对于这种特定情况，链上分析公司指出了两个指标——交易所净流量和未实现净损益（NUPL）——来衡量市场对司法部潜在出售的反应。

In particular, Glassnode examines the market response when the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of exchange inflows reaches approximately 70,000 BTC. For instance, when exchange inflows hit +70,500 BTC in March 2021 (with NUPL at 0.72, indicating euphoria/greed), the market experienced a correction before recovering over several months.

Glassnode 特别研究了当交易所流入的 30 天简单移动平均线 (SMA) 达到约 70,000 BTC 时的市场反应。例如，当 2021 年 3 月交易所流入达到+70,500 BTC（NUPL 为 0.72，表明兴奋/贪婪）时，市场经历了调整，然后在几个月内恢复。

Furthermore, inflows of 68,700 BTC in June 2022 (and a NUPL of 0.21, signaling capitulation) saw the market enter a year-long bear market, triggered by LUNA’s collapse. According to Glassnode, the impact of a potential US government sale of this magnitude depends on the current state of the market.

此外，2022 年 6 月 68,700 BTC 的流入（NUPL 为 0.21，表明投降）使市场进入了由 LUNA 崩溃引发的长达一年的熊市。 Glassnode 表示，美国政府如此大规模的潜在出售所产生的影响取决于当前的市场状况。

Given that the market sentiment (based on NUPL) is currently in belief/denial, the market may be able to withstand the potential sell-side pressure from a US government sell-off. However, it remains to be seen whether investors’ cautious optimism will be sufficient to keep the Bitcoin price from crashing when such a large volume of coins hits the open market.

鉴于目前市场情绪（基于 NUPL）是相信/否认，市场可能能够承受美国政府抛售带来的潜在卖方压力。然而，当如此大量的比特币涌入公开市场时，投资者的谨慎乐观情绪是否足以阻止比特币价格暴跌还有待观察。

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $94,700, indicating a 2.4% increase in the past 24 hours. This single-day price action suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency may be experiencing a recovery from a poor weekly performance. According to CoinGecko's data, BTC's price has declined by nearly 4% over the past seven days.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的价格徘徊在 94,700 美元左右，过去 24 小时内上涨了 2.4%。这一单日价格走势表明，旗舰加密货币可能正在从糟糕的每周表现中复苏。根据CoinGecko的数据，过去7天内BTC的价格下跌了近4%。