比特幣市場低迷即將來臨嗎？

比特幣和整體市場在今年第一週獲得了一些勢頭後似乎已經穩定下來。不幸的是，該行業似乎又回到了起點。

Bitcoin’s price performance might be set to experience some turbulence following the recent approval of the US Department of Justice (DOJ) plan to sell off its seized Bitcoin assets, with blockchain analytics firm Glassnode discussing the potential impact in its latest report on the X platform.

在美國司法部 (DOJ) 最近批准出售其扣押的比特幣資產的計劃後，比特幣的價格表現可能會經歷一些動盪，區塊鏈分析公司 Glassnode 在其關於 X 平台的最新報告中討論了潛在影響。

As reported by Bitcoinist, the DOJ has been given the go-ahead to sell over 69,000 BTC (valued at over $6 billion at current market price) in a move that could significantly influence the cryptocurrency market.

根據 Bitcoinist 報導，司法部已獲準出售超過 69,000 枚 BTC（以當前市場價格計算價值超過 60 億美元），此舉可能會對加密貨幣市場產生重大影響。

In its analysis, Glassnode highlights past instances of large-scale Bitcoin sales by government entities, beginning with the German administration’s sale of 56,000 BTC in July 2024. Despite the substantial sell-off, the market reportedly absorbed the downward pressure, and the Bitcoin price surged from $53,000 to $68,000 instead of crashing.

Glassnode 在分析中強調了政府實體過去大規模出售比特幣的實例，首先是德國政府在2024 年7 月出售了56,000 枚比特幣。也隨之上漲。

However, Glassnode notes that this outcome may not always hold true for Bitcoin’s price when significant amounts of BTC are sold. For this specific scenario, the on-chain analytics firm points to two metrics — exchange netflows and net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) — to gauge how the market will likely react to a potential DOJ sale.

然而，Glassnode 指出，當大量比特幣被出售時，這一結果可能並不總是適用於比特幣的價格。對於這種特定情況，鏈上分析公司指出了兩個指標——交易所淨流量和未實現淨損益（NUPL）——來衡量市場對司法部潛在出售的反應。

In particular, Glassnode examines the market response when the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of exchange inflows reaches approximately 70,000 BTC. For instance, when exchange inflows hit +70,500 BTC in March 2021 (with NUPL at 0.72, indicating euphoria/greed), the market experienced a correction before recovering over several months.

Glassnode 特別研究了當交易所流入的 30 天簡單移動平均線 (SMA) 達到約 70,000 BTC 時的市場反應。例如，當 2021 年 3 月交易所流入達到+70,500 BTC（NUPL 為 0.72，表明興奮/貪婪）時，市場經歷了調整，然後在幾個月內恢復。

Furthermore, inflows of 68,700 BTC in June 2022 (and a NUPL of 0.21, signaling capitulation) saw the market enter a year-long bear market, triggered by LUNA’s collapse. According to Glassnode, the impact of a potential US government sale of this magnitude depends on the current state of the market.

此外，2022 年 6 月 68,700 BTC 的流入（NUPL 為 0.21，表明投降）使市場進入了由 LUNA 崩潰引發的長達一年的熊市。 Glassnode 表示，美國政府如此大規模的潛在出售所產生的影響取決於當前的市場狀況。

Given that the market sentiment (based on NUPL) is currently in belief/denial, the market may be able to withstand the potential sell-side pressure from a US government sell-off. However, it remains to be seen whether investors’ cautious optimism will be sufficient to keep the Bitcoin price from crashing when such a large volume of coins hits the open market.

鑑於目前市場情緒（基於 NUPL）是相信/否認，市場可能能夠承受美國政府拋售帶來的潛在賣方壓力。然而，當如此大量的比特幣湧入公開市場時，投資者的謹慎樂觀情緒是否足以阻止比特幣價格暴跌還有待觀察。

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $94,700, indicating a 2.4% increase in the past 24 hours. This single-day price action suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency may be experiencing a recovery from a poor weekly performance. According to CoinGecko's data, BTC's price has declined by nearly 4% over the past seven days.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣的價格徘徊在 94,700 美元左右，過去 24 小時內上漲了 2.4%。這一單日價格走勢表明，旗艦加密貨幣可能正在從糟糕的每週表現中復甦。根據CoinGecko的數據，過去7天內BTC的價格下跌了近4%。