比特币缺乏“数字黄金”的叙述

黄金价格已达到每盎司3,317美元的历史最高水平，自今年年初以来攀升25％。

Welcome to the US Morning Crypto News Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

欢迎来到美国早晨加密新闻简报 - 您未来一天中最重要的进展的基本衰退。

Grab a coffee to see what analysts say about Gold hitting new all-time highs while Bitcoin lags behind. At this point, many in the crypto community are wondering if the ‘Digital Gold’ narrative is beginning to unravel.

拿一杯咖啡，看看分析师对黄金的发挥作用，而比特币落后于新的高点。在这一点上，加密社区中的许多人都在想“数字黄金”的叙述是否开始解散。

Is Bitcoin Akin to a Tech Stock? Analyst Weighs In

比特币类似于科技股吗？分析师称重

Gold prices have reached an all-time high of $3,317 per ounce, a 25% climb since the start of the year. Analysts say this surge highlights growing investor anxiety over the turbulent global economic climate, fueled largely by a tit-for-tat trade war among major economies.

黄金价格已达到每盎司3,317美元的历史最高水平，自今年年初以来攀升25％。分析人士说，这种激增强调了投资者对动荡的全球经济气候的焦虑，这在很大程度上是由于主要经济体之间的贸易贸易战争所推动的。

These developments have also stirred debate about the potential impact on Bitcoin, with experts offering insights on whether the digital currency will see a similar uptick in value or remain largely unaffected by the economic turmoil.

这些事态发展也引起了关于对比特币的潜在影响的辩论，专家就数字货币的价值上的增长或在很大程度上不受经济动荡的影响提供了见解。

“Bitcoin has closed the first quarter of 2025 with a 11.8% decline and recent fluctuations in the last two months highlight Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to macro-economic factors,” Paybis Chief Executive Officer Innokenty Isers told BeInCrypto.

Paybis首席执行官Innokenty Isers告诉Beincrypto：“比特币在2025年第一季度关闭，最近两个月下降了11.8％，最近两个月的波动突出了比特币对宏观经济因素非常敏感。”

Isers believes that in the short term, Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the traditional market.

Isers认为，在短期内，比特币仍与传统市场高度相关。

“Bitcoin’s correlation with equities—most notably a 0.72 correlation with the S&P 500— has led some investors to re-evaluate its position as ‘digital gold’ narrative—at least in the short term,” he added.

他补充说：“比特币与股票的相关性（最明显的是与标准普尔500指数的0.72相关性），导致一些投资者至少在短期内重新评估了其作为'数字黄金'叙事的地位。”

Moreover, Isers added that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold remains low at 0.2. This indicates that the returns of the two assets have largely moved independently.

此外，ISERS补充说，比特币和金之间的相关性在0.2时保持较低。这表明这两个资产的回报在很大程度上是独立移动的。

“Historically, this correlation has rarely exceeded 0.3, which highlights a limited linear co-movement between the two. In the recent months, Bitcoin has exhibited characteristics more akin to a tech stock than a traditional digital gold,” Isers stated.

Isers说：“从历史上看，这种相关性很少超过0.3，这突出了两者之间有限的线性共同发展。在最近几个月中，比特币表现出的特征比传统的数字黄金更类似于技术股票。”

The Paybis executive said that from a broader macro perspective, Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index reads 29, which suggests market sentiment is still largely stuck in the fear zone—even with a slight recovery.

薪资高管说，从更广泛的宏观角度来看，比特币的恐惧和贪婪指数读取29，这表明市场情绪仍然很大程度上陷入了恐惧区域，即使是稍微恢复。

“At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs have seen steady outflows throughout April, despite the asset’s price climbing. So far, outflows have totaled $812.3 million this month, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the largest share,” Isers said.

Isers说：“与此同时，尽管资产的价格攀升，但比特币ETF在整个4月的流出量都稳定。到目前为止，流出本月总计8.123亿美元，贝莱德的IBIT占最大份额。”

According to Wednesday’s QCP capital observation, despite a modest rebound in recent days, Bitcoin has yet to exhibit signs of safe-haven demand. Rather, it continues to trade in line with US equities and display sensitivity to macroeconomic developments, rendering it more like a "tech stock" than a safe-haven asset.

根据周三的QCP资本观察，尽管最近几天有适度的反弹，但比特币尚未表现出需求避免的迹象。相反，它继续符合美国股票的交易，并表现出对宏观经济发展的敏感性，使其更像是“技术股票”，而不是安全的资产。

This analysis comes as the global economic landscape remains awash with uncertainty. A looming trade war between major powers has sparked market volatility and pushed investors towards traditional safe-haven assets, such as gold, which recently hit an all-time high.

由于全球经济格局仍然充满不确定性，因此进行了分析。大国之间的一场迫在眉睫的贸易战激发了市场的波动，并将投资者推向了传统的安全资产，例如黄金，这些资产最近达到了历史最高水平。

As such, the lack of safe-haven demand for Bitcoin is noteworthy given the turbulent economic climate and the fact that gold prices have surged to record levels. This observation could have implications for the long-term narrative of Bitcoin as a digital form of gold, a narrative that has been a subject of ongoing debate within the crypto community.

因此，鉴于经济动荡的氛围以及黄金价格飙升至创纪录的水平，对比特币的避风势不足的需求值得注意。这种观察可能对比特币作为黄金的数字形式的长期叙述有影响，这种叙述一直是加密社区中正在进行的辩论的主题。

Investor eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago later today. Market entries are expecting the next clues on rate cuts and some clarity on tariff-driven inflation.

投资者的目光将在今天晚些时候在芝加哥经济俱乐部的美国美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）发表讲话。市场条目预计下一个关于降低利率的线索以及关税驱动的通货膨胀的明确性。

Earlier this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller also suggested that the central bank may be underestimating the persistence of inflationary pressures. At the moment, market entries are hoping for some sign of direction.

本周早些时候，美联储州长克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）还建议，中央银行可能低估了通货膨胀压力的持续性。目前，市场条目希望有一些方向的迹象。

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