比特幣缺乏“數字黃金”的敘述

黃金價格已達到每盎司3,317美元的歷史最高水平，自今年年初以來攀升25％。

Welcome to the US Morning Crypto News Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

歡迎來到美國早晨加密新聞簡報 - 您未來一天中最重要的進展的基本衰退。

Grab a coffee to see what analysts say about Gold hitting new all-time highs while Bitcoin lags behind. At this point, many in the crypto community are wondering if the ‘Digital Gold’ narrative is beginning to unravel.

拿一杯咖啡，看看分析師對黃金的發揮作用，而比特幣落後於新的高點。在這一點上，加密社區中的許多人都在想“數字黃金”的敘述是否開始解散。

Is Bitcoin Akin to a Tech Stock? Analyst Weighs In

比特幣類似於科技股嗎？分析師稱重

Gold prices have reached an all-time high of $3,317 per ounce, a 25% climb since the start of the year. Analysts say this surge highlights growing investor anxiety over the turbulent global economic climate, fueled largely by a tit-for-tat trade war among major economies.

黃金價格已達到每盎司3,317美元的歷史最高水平，自今年年初以來攀升25％。分析人士說，這種激增強調了投資者對動蕩的全球經濟氣候的焦慮，這在很大程度上是由於主要經濟體之間的貿易貿易戰爭所推動的。

These developments have also stirred debate about the potential impact on Bitcoin, with experts offering insights on whether the digital currency will see a similar uptick in value or remain largely unaffected by the economic turmoil.

這些事態發展也引起了關於對比特幣的潛在影響的辯論，專家就數字貨幣的價值上的增長或在很大程度上不受經濟動蕩的影響提供了見解。

“Bitcoin has closed the first quarter of 2025 with a 11.8% decline and recent fluctuations in the last two months highlight Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to macro-economic factors,” Paybis Chief Executive Officer Innokenty Isers told BeInCrypto.

Paybis首席執行官Innokenty Isers告訴Beincrypto：“比特幣在2025年第一季度關閉，最近兩個月下降了11.8％，最近兩個月的波動突出了比特幣對宏觀經濟因素非常敏感。”

Isers believes that in the short term, Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the traditional market.

Isers認為，在短期內，比特幣仍與傳統市場高度相關。

“Bitcoin’s correlation with equities—most notably a 0.72 correlation with the S&P 500— has led some investors to re-evaluate its position as ‘digital gold’ narrative—at least in the short term,” he added.

他補充說：“比特幣與股票的相關性（最明顯的是與標準普爾500指數的0.72相關性），導致一些投資者至少在短期內重新評估了其作為'數字黃金'敘事的地位。”

Moreover, Isers added that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold remains low at 0.2. This indicates that the returns of the two assets have largely moved independently.

此外，ISERS補充說，比特幣和金之間的相關性在0.2時保持較低。這表明這兩個資產的回報在很大程度上是獨立移動的。

“Historically, this correlation has rarely exceeded 0.3, which highlights a limited linear co-movement between the two. In the recent months, Bitcoin has exhibited characteristics more akin to a tech stock than a traditional digital gold,” Isers stated.

Isers說：“從歷史上看，這種相關性很少超過0.3，這突出了兩者之間有限的線性共同發展。在最近幾個月中，比特幣表現出的特徵比傳統的數字黃金更類似於技術股票。”

The Paybis executive said that from a broader macro perspective, Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index reads 29, which suggests market sentiment is still largely stuck in the fear zone—even with a slight recovery.

薪資高管說，從更廣泛的宏觀角度來看，比特幣的恐懼和貪婪指數讀取29，這表明市場情緒仍然很大程度上陷入了恐懼區域，即使是稍微恢復。

“At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs have seen steady outflows throughout April, despite the asset’s price climbing. So far, outflows have totaled $812.3 million this month, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the largest share,” Isers said.

Isers說：“與此同時，儘管資產的價格攀升，但比特幣ETF在整個4月的流出量都穩定。到目前為止，流出本月總計8.123億美元，貝萊德的IBIT佔最大份額。”

According to Wednesday’s QCP capital observation, despite a modest rebound in recent days, Bitcoin has yet to exhibit signs of safe-haven demand. Rather, it continues to trade in line with US equities and display sensitivity to macroeconomic developments, rendering it more like a "tech stock" than a safe-haven asset.

根據周三的QCP資本觀察，儘管最近幾天有適度的反彈，但比特幣尚未表現出需求避免的跡象。相反，它繼續符合美國股票的交易，並表現出對宏觀經濟發展的敏感性，使其更像是“技術股票”，而不是安全的資產。

This analysis comes as the global economic landscape remains awash with uncertainty. A looming trade war between major powers has sparked market volatility and pushed investors towards traditional safe-haven assets, such as gold, which recently hit an all-time high.

由於全球經濟格局仍然充滿不確定性，因此進行了分析。大國之間的一場迫在眉睫的貿易戰激發了市場的波動，並將投資者推向了傳統的安全資產，例如黃金，這些資產最近達到了歷史最高水平。

As such, the lack of safe-haven demand for Bitcoin is noteworthy given the turbulent economic climate and the fact that gold prices have surged to record levels. This observation could have implications for the long-term narrative of Bitcoin as a digital form of gold, a narrative that has been a subject of ongoing debate within the crypto community.

因此，鑑於經濟動蕩的氛圍以及黃金價格飆升至創紀錄的水平，對比特幣的避風勢不足的需求值得注意。這種觀察可能對比特幣作為黃金的數字形式的長期敘述有影響，這種敘述一直是加密社區中正在進行的辯論的主題。

Investor eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago later today. Market entries are expecting the next clues on rate cuts and some clarity on tariff-driven inflation.

投資者的目光將在今天晚些時候在芝加哥經濟俱樂部的美國美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）發表講話。市場條目預計下一個關於降低利率的線索以及關稅驅動的通貨膨脹的明確性。

Earlier this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller also suggested that the central bank may be underestimating the persistence of inflationary pressures. At the moment, market entries are hoping for some sign of direction.

本週早些時候，美聯儲州長克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）還建議，中央銀行可能低估了通貨膨脹壓力的持續性。目前，市場條目希望有一些方向的跡象。

Chart of the Day

日圖

Byte-Sized Alpha

字節大小的alpha

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

加密股票概述