比特币与美元指数（DXY）的逆相关性

比特币与传统金融市场的关系已经发展，使其与美元（美元）的相关性是外汇交易者的重要因素。

Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional financial markets has evolved, making its correlation with the US dollar (USD) an essential factor for forex traders. While Bitcoin operates independently of central banks, its price movements often align with macrotrends influencing the US dollar, including interest rates, inflation and liquidity shifts.

比特币与传统金融市场的关系已经发展，使其与美元（美元）的相关性是外汇交易者的重要因素。虽然比特币独立于中央银行运营，但其价格变动通常与影响美元的影响的大笔相吻合，包括利率，通货膨胀和流动性转移。

Over the past five years, Bitcoin’s correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fluctuated between -0.4 and -0.8, meaning it often moves opposite the dollar but not always consistently. For forex traders, this relationship presents both opportunities and risks, particularly when analyzing BTC to USD price trends alongside major forex pairs.

在过去的五年中，比特币与美元指数（DXY）的相关性在-0.4和-0.8之间波动，这意味着它通常与美元相反，但并非总是一致。对于外汇交易者而言，这种关系既带来了机会又带来风险，尤其是在将BTC与主要外汇配对一起分析到美元价格趋势时。

Understanding Bitcoin’s Inverse Correlation with the US Dollar

了解比特币与美元的逆相关性

It is well established that the particular exchange rate relating to bitcoin is between the dollar and bitcoin. However, like the value of any major fiat currency, cryptocurrency is also affected by interest rates, monetary policies and global liquidity trends, so its price does not move in specific, symmetric ways.

众所周知，与比特币有关的特定汇率是美元和比特币之间。但是，像任何主要的法定货币的价值一样，加密货币也受利率，货币政策和全球流动性趋势的影响，因此其价格不会以特定的，对称的方式转移。

It is well known that bitcoin shows a strong negative correlation with the dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against major currencies.

众所周知，比特币与美元指数（DXY）显示出很强的负相关性，该指数衡量了对主要货币的美元价值。

The Correlation Mechanism:

相关机制：

Take the last quarter of 2022, for example. The DXY Index of America’s dollar rose to its highest mark in twenty years at 114. This was due to the continuous rate hikes of the Federal Reserve. During this period, Bitcoin dropped drastically from $47,000 to under $16,000 as speculative market assets were losing the funds they had received.

以2022年最后一个季度为例。美国美元的DXY指数在二十年内达到了114年的最高分。这是由于美联储的持续加价。在此期间，由于投机性市场资产损失了收到的资金，比特币将从47,000美元下降到16,000美元以下。

As seen at the end of 2023, when the dollar value decreased, investors shifted into taking calculated risks and were able to push Bitcoin’s value beyond 40,000.

从2023年底看，当美元价值下降时，投资者转向采取计算的风险，并能够将比特币的价值推高超过40,000。

The DXY had a correlation of -0.65 with Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2024, showing how deeply the world’s monetary system impacts Bitcoin.

DXY在2024年第一季度与比特币的相关性为-0.65，显示了世界货币体系对比特币的影响有多深。

The reason for stating Bitcoin and the US dollar’s inverse movement:

说明比特币和美元逆向移动的原因：

1. Rates of Interest and Monetary Policy

1。利率和货币政策

When the Fed raised rates sharply in 2022, Bitcoin plummeted more than 60% as the cost of borrowing increased, leading to capital outflows from speculative markets.

当美联储在2022年急剧提高利率时，随着借贷成本的增加，比特币暴跌了60％以上，导致投机市场的资本流出。

2. Public Sentiment Towards the Market and Risk Desire

2。对市场的公众情绪和风险愿望

BTC behaves like a speculative liability and has a resemblance to currencies in forex trading and high-growth stocks.

BTC的行为就像投机责任，与外汇交易和高增长股票的货币相似。

Foreign exchange traders use BTC’s price movement as a marker for risk sentiment changes.

外汇交易者使用BTC的价格变动作为风险情绪变化的标志。

Bitcoin’s Effects on Major Currency Pairs

比特币对主要货币对的影响

BTC is known for its epic, intense correlation with the DXY Metric, although it also has an impact on particular forex currency pairs that are sensitive to the US dollar’s strength or weak risk sentiment in addition to the dollar-BTC pair.

BTC以其与DXY度量的史诗般的密切相关性而闻名，尽管它对特定的外汇货币对也有影响，这些外汇货币对除了Dollar-BTC对外，对美元的强度或弱风险情绪敏感。

1. BTC with EUR/USD: The Greatest Macro Pair

1。BTC带欧元/美元：最大的宏观对

2. BTC and USD/JPY: Moving Towards Safe Haven

2。BTC和USD/JPY：朝避风港迈

3. BTC and Other Market Currencies (USD/TRY, USD/ARS, USD/ZAR)

3。BTC和其他市场货币（USD/TRY，USD/ARS，USD/ZAR）

With the rise in popularity of Bitcoin, forex traders are paying attention to the precious currency’s volatility with hopes of forecasting emerging and developed nations’ foreign exchange currencies.

随着比特币的普及，外汇交易者正在关注宝贵的货币波动，希望预测新兴和发展国家的外汇货币。

Hedge Funds: How They Trade Forex and BTC and Their Institutional Impact

对冲基金：他们如何交易外汇和BTC及其机构影响

Hedge funds, asset managers and other institutional traders profit from large moves in price after trading Bitcoin along with the major currencies.

对冲基金，资产经理和其他机构贸易商在交易比特币以及主要货币后，从大笔价格上获利。

2024 witnessed a surge in the derivative trading volume of Bitcoin, surpassing 4 trillion US dollars, which clearly demonstrates a shift of the traditional currency investors towards Bitcoin.

2024年见证了比特币的衍生品交易量激增，超过了4万亿美元，这清楚地表明了传统货币投资者向比特币的转变。

Key Considerations for Forex Traders Watching BTC to USD

外汇交易者观看BTC至美元的关键注意事项

A Final Thought

最后的想法

Bitcoin’s integration into the economy makes it easier for traders to make decisions based on the BTC/USD price pairs. At times, Bitcoin’s inverse reaction to the DXY shows how interest rates, the state of liquidity in the economy and the risk appetite of the market affect both currencies.

比特币与经济的整合使交易者更容易根据BTC/USD价格对做出决策。有时，比特币对DXY的反应反应表明，利率，经济流动性的状况以及市场的风险对两种货币的影响。

Monitoring the movement of Bitcoin against the dollar and major currency pairs such as the euro to the dollar, dollar to yen and developing markets gives traders the Bitcoin economic advantage.

监视比特币对美元和主要货币对的移动，例如欧元兑美元，美元向日元和发展中的市场带来了贸易商的经济优势。