比特幣與美元指數（DXY）的逆相關性

比特幣與傳統金融市場的關係已經發展，使其與美元（美元）的相關性是外匯交易者的重要因素。

Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional financial markets has evolved, making its correlation with the US dollar (USD) an essential factor for forex traders. While Bitcoin operates independently of central banks, its price movements often align with macrotrends influencing the US dollar, including interest rates, inflation and liquidity shifts.

比特幣與傳統金融市場的關係已經發展，使其與美元（美元）的相關性是外匯交易者的重要因素。雖然比特幣獨立於中央銀行運營，但其價格變動通常與影響美元的影響的大筆相吻合，包括利率，通貨膨脹和流動性轉移。

Over the past five years, Bitcoin’s correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fluctuated between -0.4 and -0.8, meaning it often moves opposite the dollar but not always consistently. For forex traders, this relationship presents both opportunities and risks, particularly when analyzing BTC to USD price trends alongside major forex pairs.

在過去的五年中，比特幣與美元指數（DXY）的相關性在-0.4和-0.8之間波動，這意味著它通常與美元相反，但並非總是一致。對於外匯交易者而言，這種關係既帶來了機會又帶來風險，尤其是在將BTC與主要外匯配對一起分析到美元價格趨勢時。

Understanding Bitcoin’s Inverse Correlation with the US Dollar

了解比特幣與美元的逆相關性

It is well established that the particular exchange rate relating to bitcoin is between the dollar and bitcoin. However, like the value of any major fiat currency, cryptocurrency is also affected by interest rates, monetary policies and global liquidity trends, so its price does not move in specific, symmetric ways.

眾所周知，與比特幣有關的特定匯率是美元和比特幣之間。但是，像任何主要的法定貨幣的價值一樣，加密貨幣也受利率，貨幣政策和全球流動性趨勢的影響，因此其價格不會以特定的，對稱的方式轉移。

It is well known that bitcoin shows a strong negative correlation with the dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against major currencies.

眾所周知，比特幣與美元指數（DXY）顯示出很強的負相關性，該指數衡量了對主要貨幣的美元價值。

The Correlation Mechanism:

相關機制：

Take the last quarter of 2022, for example. The DXY Index of America’s dollar rose to its highest mark in twenty years at 114. This was due to the continuous rate hikes of the Federal Reserve. During this period, Bitcoin dropped drastically from $47,000 to under $16,000 as speculative market assets were losing the funds they had received.

以2022年最後一個季度為例。美國美元的DXY指數在二十年內達到了114年的最高分。這是由於美聯儲的持續加價。在此期間，由於投機性市場資產損失了收到的資金，比特幣將從47,000美元下降到16,000美元以下。

As seen at the end of 2023, when the dollar value decreased, investors shifted into taking calculated risks and were able to push Bitcoin’s value beyond 40,000.

從2023年底看，當美元價值下降時，投資者轉向採取計算的風險，並能夠將比特幣的價值推高超過40,000。

The DXY had a correlation of -0.65 with Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2024, showing how deeply the world’s monetary system impacts Bitcoin.

DXY在2024年第一季度與比特幣的相關性為-0.65，顯示了世界貨幣體係對比特幣的影響有多深。

The reason for stating Bitcoin and the US dollar’s inverse movement:

說明比特幣和美元逆向移動的原因：

1. Rates of Interest and Monetary Policy

1。利率和貨幣政策

When the Fed raised rates sharply in 2022, Bitcoin plummeted more than 60% as the cost of borrowing increased, leading to capital outflows from speculative markets.

當美聯儲在2022年急劇提高利率時，隨著借貸成本的增加，比特幣暴跌了60％以上，導致投機市場的資本流出。

2. Public Sentiment Towards the Market and Risk Desire

2。對市場的公眾情緒和風險願望

BTC behaves like a speculative liability and has a resemblance to currencies in forex trading and high-growth stocks.

BTC的行為就像投機責任，與外匯交易和高增長股票的貨幣相似。

Foreign exchange traders use BTC’s price movement as a marker for risk sentiment changes.

外匯交易者使用BTC的價格變動作為風險情緒變化的標誌。

Bitcoin’s Effects on Major Currency Pairs

比特幣對主要貨幣對的影響

BTC is known for its epic, intense correlation with the DXY Metric, although it also has an impact on particular forex currency pairs that are sensitive to the US dollar’s strength or weak risk sentiment in addition to the dollar-BTC pair.

BTC以其與DXY度量的史詩般的密切相關性而聞名，儘管它對特定的外匯貨幣對也有影響，這些外匯貨幣對除了Dollar-BTC對外，對美元的強度或弱風險情緒敏感。

1. BTC with EUR/USD: The Greatest Macro Pair

1。 BTC帶歐元/美元：最大的宏觀對

2. BTC and USD/JPY: Moving Towards Safe Haven

2。 BTC和USD/JPY：朝避風港邁

3. BTC and Other Market Currencies (USD/TRY, USD/ARS, USD/ZAR)

3。 BTC和其他市場貨幣（USD/TRY，USD/ARS，USD/ZAR）

With the rise in popularity of Bitcoin, forex traders are paying attention to the precious currency’s volatility with hopes of forecasting emerging and developed nations’ foreign exchange currencies.

隨著比特幣的普及，外匯交易者正在關注寶貴的貨幣波動，希望預測新興和發展國家的外匯貨幣。

Hedge Funds: How They Trade Forex and BTC and Their Institutional Impact

對沖基金：他們如何交易外彙和BTC及其機構影響

Hedge funds, asset managers and other institutional traders profit from large moves in price after trading Bitcoin along with the major currencies.

對沖基金，資產經理和其他機構貿易商在交易比特幣以及主要貨幣後，從大筆價格上獲利。

2024 witnessed a surge in the derivative trading volume of Bitcoin, surpassing 4 trillion US dollars, which clearly demonstrates a shift of the traditional currency investors towards Bitcoin.

2024年見證了比特幣的衍生品交易量激增，超過了4萬億美元，這清楚地表明了傳統貨幣投資者向比特幣的轉變。

Key Considerations for Forex Traders Watching BTC to USD

外匯交易者觀看BTC至美元的關鍵注意事項

A Final Thought

最後的想法

Bitcoin’s integration into the economy makes it easier for traders to make decisions based on the BTC/USD price pairs. At times, Bitcoin’s inverse reaction to the DXY shows how interest rates, the state of liquidity in the economy and the risk appetite of the market affect both currencies.

比特幣與經濟的整合使交易者更容易根據BTC/USD價格對做出決策。有時，比特幣對DXY的反應反應表明，利率，經濟流動性的狀況以及市場的風險對兩種貨幣的影響。

Monitoring the movement of Bitcoin against the dollar and major currency pairs such as the euro to the dollar, dollar to yen and developing markets gives traders the Bitcoin economic advantage.

監視比特幣對美元和主要貨幣對的移動，例如歐元兌美元，美元向日元和發展中的市場帶來了貿易商的經濟優勢。