比特币以下跌结束了历史性的九月，但突破可能不会在美国大选之前出现

尽管 10 月是加密资产历史上表现强劲的月份，但期权交易员预计未来几周将进一步下跌，选举后将出现反弹

Cryptocurrencies fell sharply on Monday with bitcoin (BTC) nearing the $63,000 level during the U.S. session, finishing on a sour note of what otherwise was a surprisingly stellar September for digital assets.

周一，加密货币大幅下跌，比特币 (BTC) 在美国交易时段接近 63,000 美元水平，在数字资产令人惊讶的 9 月份收盘时表现不佳。

BTC dipped 3.7% over the past 24 hours, while ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) held up relatively well with 2.8% and 1.9% declines, respectively. Several altcoin majors in the broad-market CoinDesk 20 index tumbled more than 5% during the same period, including Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT) and Chainlink (LINK).

BTC 在过去 24 小时内下跌了 3.7%，而以太坊 (ETH) 和 solana (SOL) 则表现相对较好，分别下跌了 2.8% 和 1.9%。大市场 CoinDesk 20 指数中的几个主要山寨币同期下跌超过 5%，包括 Ripple (XRP)、Cardano (ADA)、Polkadot (DOT) 和 Chainlink (LINK)。

Crypto-related stocks also got slammed lower, with multiple bitcoin miners including Marathon Digital (MARA), Bitdeer (BTDR), Hut 8 (HUT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) plunging 5%-10%. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) fell over 6%, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) was more than 3% lower shortly before the close of trade.

加密相关股票也大幅下跌，包括 Marathon Digital (MARA)、Bitdeer (BTDR)、Hut 8 (HUT) 和 CleanSpark (CLSK) 在内的多家比特币矿商暴跌 5%-10%。加密货币交易所 Coinbase (COIN) 下跌超过 6%，而 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 在收盘前不久下跌超过 3%。

A glance at traditional markets showed U.S. equity indexes flatlining for most of the day before heading lower towards the later hours of the session, while key European markets sold off 1%-2%.

纵观传统市场，美国股指当天大部分时间持平，随后在盘中尾盘走低，而欧洲主要市场则下跌 1%-2%。

Meanwhile, Japan's incoming prime minister Shigeru Ishiba said that "monetary policy must remain accommodative as a trend," according to a Reuters report. His comments came after his surprise weekend elevation to the PM role set off a 5% plunge in the Nikkei on Monday.

与此同时，据路透社报道，日本即将上任的首相石破茂表示，“货币政策必须保持宽松的趋势”。在他发表上述言论之前，他周末出人意料地晋升为总理，导致周一日经指数暴跌 5%。

In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations on Monday that future rate cuts will be as aggressive as September's 50 basis point cut.

在美国，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周一缓和了未来降息幅度将与 9 月份降息 50 个基点一样激进的预期。

“Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance. But we are not on any preset course,” Powell said. “The risks are two-sided, and we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”

“展望未来，如果经济大体按照预期发展，政策将随着时间的推移转向更加中性的立场。但我们没有走任何预设路线，”鲍威尔说。 “风险是双向的，我们将继续在一次又一次的会议上做出决定。”

When might bitcoin truly break out?

比特币什么时候才能真正爆发？

Even with today's dip in crypto prices, bitcoin is on track to finish with a solid positive return in September despite its reputation for being an adverse month. BTC was up just shy of 7% through the month at prices a few hours before UTC midnight, booking its best September performance since 2013, per CoinGlass data.

尽管今天的加密货币价格下跌，但比特币仍有望在 9 月获得稳健的正回报，尽管该月被认为是不利的月份。根据 CoinGlass 的数据，以 UTC 午夜前几个小时的价格计算，BTC 本月上涨了近 7%，创下了自 2013 年以来的最佳 9 月表现。

September's positive return could bode well for October, with every previous green September having been followed by more gains the next month. October is also historically one of the strongest months for bitcoin, earning its nickname "Uptober," by recording positive monthly returns 9 times out of 11 since 2013.

九月的正回报可能是十月的好兆头，之前每一个绿色的九月都会在下个月出现更多的涨幅。历史上，10 月也是比特币表现最强劲的月份之一，自 2013 年以来，11 个月中有 9 次月度回报为正值，因此赢得了“Uptober”的绰号。

However, Charlie Morris, founder of investment manager ByteTree, contemplated whether the expectation of a strong October is so widespread that it may throw a curveball to investors.

然而，投资管理公司 ByteTree 的创始人查理·莫里斯 (Charlie Morris) 思考，人们对 10 月份表现强劲的预期是否如此普遍，以至于可能会给投资者带来麻烦。

"The contrarian will always be cautious of an idea that has become too popular because popularity means the money is already invested ahead of the event," Morris wrote in a Monday report.

莫里斯在周一的报告中写道：“逆向投资者总是会对过于流行的想法持谨慎态度，因为流行意味着资金已经在活动之前投入。”

His report further noted that BTC's price historically consolidated for roughly six months after halvings before making new highs, and the current price action is in line with that pattern. Given that this year's event happened on April 19, a breakout to new highs may happen towards the end of October if the pattern holds up.

他的报告进一步指出，从历史上看，比特币的价格在减半后大约会盘整六个月，然后再创新高，而当前的价格走势也符合这种模式。鉴于今年的事件发生在 4 月 19 日，如果该模式持续下去，可能会在 10 月底突破新高。

Options traders, however, expect that a bigger rally will only come after the U.S. elections in November, and are thus positioning for further weakness in the coming weeks, according to Jake Ostrovskis, OTC trader at crypto market maker Wintermute.

然而，加密货币做市商 Wintermute 的场外交易员杰克·奥斯特洛夫斯基斯 (Jake Ostrovskis) 表示，期权交易员预计，只有在 11 月美国大选之后才会出现更大的反弹，因此预计未来几周将进一步走软。

"With spot trading dipping below $65,000, the volatility surface indicates a bias toward the downside until late October and November, when the market begins to favor calls over put protection," Ostrovskis said. "Current positioning suggests support for a post-election rally."

Ostrovskis 表示：“随着现货交易跌破 65,000 美元，波动性表面显示出下行倾向，直到 10 月底和 11 月，届时市场开始青睐看涨期权而非看跌期权保护。” “目前的定位表明支持选举后的集会。”

Sandor reported earlier this month on Deribit bitcoin options data showing a preference for downside protection, via puts, over upside exposure, via calls.

Sandor 本月早些时候报道的 Deribit 比特币期权数据显示，人们更倾向于通过看跌期权来进行下行保护，而不是通过看涨期权来进行上行敞口。

Options traders are also largely betting on bitcoin to stay within a range of $58,000 to $72,000 by the Oct. 23 expiration, with open interest concentrated at strikes of $60,000 and $70,000.

期权交易员也主要押注比特币在 10 月 23 日到期之前将保持在 58,000 美元至 72,000 美元的范围内，未平仓合约集中在 60,000 美元和 70,000 美元的行使价。

Institutions are buying bitcoin again, Grayscale data showsInstitutions are buying bitcoin again, Grayscale data shows

灰度数据显示，机构再次购买比特币 灰度数据显示，机构再次购买比特币

Institutions are buying bitcoin again, Grayscale data shows

灰度数据显示，机构再次购买比特币

Insそれにしてもinstitutions are buying bitcoin again, according to the latest data from Grayscale.

根据灰度的最新数据，机构再次购买比特币。

The world's largest digital asset manager saw inflows of $224 million into its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) during the week ended Sept. 25, a reversal from the outflows seen in the prior week.

截至 9 月 25 日的一周内，全球最大的数字资产管理公司的灰度比特币信托基金 (GBTC) 流入了 2.24 亿美元，与前一周的流出情况相反。

The inflows were driven by demand from hedge funds and other institutional investors, according to Grayscale, which noted

Grayscale 表示，资金流入是由对冲基金和其他机构投资者的需求推动的，该公司指出