比特币减半扰乱市场：地缘政治和波动性塑造前景

比特币减半事件已经到来，导致市场大幅波动。在不确定性中，交易者正在考虑买入或平仓。专家分析认为，地缘政治紧张局势和美联储的鹰派政策可能会削弱减半的影响。技术指标已确定潜在价格目标接近 50,000 美元，200 日均线在波动期间提供支撑。尽管短期看涨复苏，但分析师警告称，由于基本面支撑减弱，长期来看可能出现调整。

Bitcoin Halving: Market Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions Shape Outlook

比特币减半：市场波动和地缘政治紧张局势影响前景

NOIDA, India - The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event has arrived, triggering significant market fluctuations and leaving traders grappling with uncertainty about the future trajectory of the digital asset.

印度诺伊达 - 备受期待的比特币减半事件已经到来，引发了巨大的市场波动，并使交易者面临着数字资产未来轨迹的不确定性。

Market Volatility

市场波动

In the lead-up to the halving, the Bitcoin price action has exhibited extreme volatility, with a difference of approximately $10,000 between the recent high and low points. This volatility has created a sense of trepidation among traders, with some speculating about buying the dip while others are liquidating their positions.

在减半之前，比特币价格走势表现出极大的波动，近期高点和低点之间相差约 10,000 美元。这种波动让交易者产生了一种恐惧感，一些人猜测逢低买入，而另一些人则在清算头寸。

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors

宏观经济和地缘政治因素

According to Yashu Gola, a seasoned crypto veteran with over a decade of experience in the industry, the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East poses a potential threat to the post-halving Bitcoin price rally.

拥有十多年行业经验的加密货币资深人士 Yashu Gola 表示，近期中东紧张局势升级对比特币减半后的价格上涨构成潜在威胁。

As global demand for safe-haven assets increases amidst rising tensions between Israel and Iran, the crypto sector has responded negatively, with the US dollar gaining strength. This development could dampen the enthusiasm surrounding the halving event.

随着以色列和伊朗之间紧张局势加剧，全球对避险资产的需求增加，加密货币行业做出了负面反应，美元走强。这一事态发展可能会削弱围绕减半事件的热情。

Additionally, experts have expressed concerns that the market may have underestimated the likelihood of an Israeli counterattack following the April 13 attack. Israel retaliated on April 19, leading to further uncertainty in the region.

此外，专家还担心市场可能低估了 4 月 13 日袭击后以色列发动反击的可能性。以色列于4月19日进行报复，导致该地区进一步不确定。

Markets have already reacted to these geopolitical events, with Asian shares and bond yields declining while safe-haven assets like gold have spiked. Bitcoin's price briefly dipped below $60,000 before bulls managed to regain ground.

市场已经对这些地缘政治事件做出了反应，亚洲股市和债券收益率下跌，而黄金等避险资产则飙升。比特币价格一度跌破 60,000 美元，随后多头成功收复失地。

Federal Reserve Policy

美联储政策

Adding to the market uncertainty, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has announced a delay in the timeline for the first anticipated rate cut. The cut is now projected to occur in November 2024, rather than June 2024 as previously expected.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔宣布推迟首次降息的时间表，这加剧了市场的不确定性。目前预计削减将于 2024 年 11 月进行，而不是之前预期的 2024 年 6 月。

Gola emphasized that this delay could have a significant impact on financial markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

戈拉强调，这种延迟可能会对金融市场产生重大影响，包括比特币等加密货币。

Technical Analysis

技术分析

Despite the market turbulence, Gola identified two distinct technical patterns that could provide insights into the near-term direction of Bitcoin's price.

尽管市场动荡，戈拉还是发现了两种不同的技术模式，可以为比特币价格的近期方向提供见解。

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

对称三角形图案

This pattern consists of a series of lower highs and higher lows that converge to a point, forming a triangular shape. In the case of Bitcoin, the pattern suggests that a breakout could occur in either direction. However, traders typically anticipate the breakout to continue the trend that existed before the triangle formed. If a bearish breakout occurs, the theoretical price target for BTC could be around $50,000.

该形态由一系列较低的高点和较高的低点组成，这些高点汇聚成一个点，形成三角形。就比特币而言，该模式表明突破可能发生在任一方向。然而，交易者通常预计突破将延续三角形形成之前存在的趋势。如果出现看跌突破，BTC 的理论价格目标可能在 50,000 美元左右。

Descending Triangle Pattern

下降三角形模式

This bearish formation consists of a consolidation period followed by a strong vertical rally where the asset price maintains a high level due to strong buying pressure. The pattern completes when the price breaks out of the consolidation area, continuing the previous upward trend. In this case, the target price for the breakout is calculated by adding the length of the flag pole to the breakout price level, which also points to a potential price target of around $50,000 for Bitcoin.

这种看跌形态包括盘整期和随后的强劲垂直反弹，其中资产价格由于强劲的购买压力而保持在高位。当价格突破盘整区域并延续之前的上涨趋势时，该形态就完成了。在这种情况下，突破的目标价格是通过将旗杆的长度添加到突破价格水平来计算的，这也表明比特币的潜在价格目标约为 50,000 美元。

Bitcoin's Response to Halving

比特币对减半的反应

At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price has recovered from a dip below $60,000 to reach a daily high near $65,200, possibly influenced by the halving euphoria. Gola anticipated this bullish recovery but cautioned that a correction could occur in the long term.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的价格已从 60,000 美元以下的跌势中恢复至接近 65,200 美元的日高点，这可能是受到减半兴奋情绪的影响。戈拉预计会出现这种看涨复苏，但警告称，长期来看可能会出现调整。

"The Bitcoin halving is arriving, so maybe the sentiment will be quite bullish in the near term," Gola said. "I'm not saying long term because, as I explained earlier, the fundamentals that were supporting the Bitcoin rally so far are actually diminishing with the escalating Middle Eastern conflict and the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies."

“比特币减半即将到来，因此短期内市场情绪可能会相当乐观，”戈拉说。 “我并不是说长期，因为正如我之前解释的那样，随着中东冲突不断升级和美联储的鹰派政策，迄今为止支持比特币上涨的基本面实际上正在减弱。”

Conclusion

结论

The Bitcoin halving has brought forth a complex and uncertain market environment, characterized by extreme volatility, geopolitical tensions, and shifting Federal Reserve policy. While the halving may provide a temporary boost to Bitcoin's price, traders are advised to remain cautious and monitor both fundamental and technical factors closely.

比特币减半带来了复杂且不确定的市场环境，其特点是极度波动、地缘政治紧张和美联储政策变化。虽然减半可能会暂时提振比特币的价格，但建议交易者保持谨慎并密切监控基本面和技术因素。

Disclaimer

免责声明

This article should not be construed as financial advice. It represents the views and opinions of the author based on available information. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.

本文不应被视为财务建议。它代表作者基于现有信息的观点和意见。我们鼓励读者在做出任何投资决定之前进行自己的研究和尽职调查。