比特幣減半擾亂市場：地緣政治與波動性塑造前景

比特幣減半事件已經到來，導致市場大幅波動。在不確定性中，交易者正在考慮買入或平倉。專家分析認為，地緣政治緊張局勢和聯準會的鷹派政策可能會削弱減半的影響。技術指標已確定潛在價格目標接近 50,000 美元，200 日均線在波動期間提供支撐。儘管短期看漲復甦，但分析師警告稱，由於基本面支撐減弱，長期來看可能出現調整。

Bitcoin Halving: Market Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions Shape Outlook

比特幣減半：市場波動與地緣政治緊張局勢影響前景

NOIDA, India - The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event has arrived, triggering significant market fluctuations and leaving traders grappling with uncertainty about the future trajectory of the digital asset.

印度諾伊達 - 備受期待的比特幣減半事件已經到來，引發了巨大的市場波動，並使交易者面臨數位資產未來軌蹟的不確定性。

Market Volatility

市場波動

In the lead-up to the halving, the Bitcoin price action has exhibited extreme volatility, with a difference of approximately $10,000 between the recent high and low points. This volatility has created a sense of trepidation among traders, with some speculating about buying the dip while others are liquidating their positions.

在減半之前，比特幣價格走勢表現出極大的波動，近期高點和低點之間相差約 10,000 美元。這種波動讓交易者產生了一種恐懼感，有些人猜測逢低買入，而有些人則在清算部位。

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors

宏觀經濟與地緣政治因素

According to Yashu Gola, a seasoned crypto veteran with over a decade of experience in the industry, the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East poses a potential threat to the post-halving Bitcoin price rally.

擁有十多年產業經驗的加密貨幣資深人士 Yashu Gola 表示，近期中東緊張局勢升級對比特幣減半後的物價上漲構成潛在威脅。

As global demand for safe-haven assets increases amidst rising tensions between Israel and Iran, the crypto sector has responded negatively, with the US dollar gaining strength. This development could dampen the enthusiasm surrounding the halving event.

隨著以色列和伊朗之間緊張局勢加劇，全球對避險資產的需求增加，加密貨幣產業做出了負面反應，美元走強。這一事態發展可能會削弱圍繞減半事件的熱情。

Additionally, experts have expressed concerns that the market may have underestimated the likelihood of an Israeli counterattack following the April 13 attack. Israel retaliated on April 19, leading to further uncertainty in the region.

此外，專家也擔心市場可能低估了 4 月 13 日襲擊後以色列發動反擊的可能性。以色列於4月19日進行報復，導致該地區進一步不確定。

Markets have already reacted to these geopolitical events, with Asian shares and bond yields declining while safe-haven assets like gold have spiked. Bitcoin's price briefly dipped below $60,000 before bulls managed to regain ground.

市場已經對這些地緣政治事件做出了反應，亞洲股市和債券殖利率下跌，而黃金等避險資產則飆升。比特幣價格一度跌破 6 萬美元，隨後多頭成功收復失地。

Federal Reserve Policy

聯準會政策

Adding to the market uncertainty, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has announced a delay in the timeline for the first anticipated rate cut. The cut is now projected to occur in November 2024, rather than June 2024 as previously expected.

聯準會主席鮑威爾宣布推遲首次降息的時間表，這加劇了市場的不確定性。目前預計削減將於 2024 年 11 月進行，而不是先前預期的 2024 年 6 月。

Gola emphasized that this delay could have a significant impact on financial markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

戈拉強調，這種延遲可能會對金融市場產生重大影響，包括比特幣等加密貨幣。

Technical Analysis

技術分析

Despite the market turbulence, Gola identified two distinct technical patterns that could provide insights into the near-term direction of Bitcoin's price.

儘管市場動盪，戈拉還是發現了兩種不同的技術模式，可以為比特幣價格的近期方向提供見解。

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

對稱三角形圖案

This pattern consists of a series of lower highs and higher lows that converge to a point, forming a triangular shape. In the case of Bitcoin, the pattern suggests that a breakout could occur in either direction. However, traders typically anticipate the breakout to continue the trend that existed before the triangle formed. If a bearish breakout occurs, the theoretical price target for BTC could be around $50,000.

該形態由一系列較低的高點和較高的低點組成，這些高點匯聚成一個點，形成三角形。就比特幣而言，該模式表明突破可能發生在任一方向。然而，交易者通常預期突破將延續三角形形成之前存在的趨勢。如果出現看跌突破，BTC 的理論價格目標可能在 5 萬美元左右。

Descending Triangle Pattern

下降三角形模式

This bearish formation consists of a consolidation period followed by a strong vertical rally where the asset price maintains a high level due to strong buying pressure. The pattern completes when the price breaks out of the consolidation area, continuing the previous upward trend. In this case, the target price for the breakout is calculated by adding the length of the flag pole to the breakout price level, which also points to a potential price target of around $50,000 for Bitcoin.

這種看跌形態包括盤整期和隨後的強勁垂直反彈，其中資產價格由於強勁的購買壓力而保持在高位。當價格突破盤整區域並延續先前的上漲趨勢時，該形態就完成了。在這種情況下，突破的目標價格是透過將旗桿的長度添加到突破價格水平來計算的，這也表明比特幣的潛在價格目標約為 50,000 美元。

Bitcoin's Response to Halving

比特幣對減半的反應

At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price has recovered from a dip below $60,000 to reach a daily high near $65,200, possibly influenced by the halving euphoria. Gola anticipated this bullish recovery but cautioned that a correction could occur in the long term.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣的價格已從 60,000 美元以下的跌勢中恢復至接近 65,200 美元的日高點，這可能是受到減半興奮情緒的影響。戈拉預計會出現這種看漲復甦，但警告稱，長期來看可能會出現調整。

"The Bitcoin halving is arriving, so maybe the sentiment will be quite bullish in the near term," Gola said. "I'm not saying long term because, as I explained earlier, the fundamentals that were supporting the Bitcoin rally so far are actually diminishing with the escalating Middle Eastern conflict and the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies."

「比特幣減半即將到來，因此短期內市場情緒可能會相當樂觀，」戈拉說。 “我並不是說長期，因為正如我之前解釋的那樣，隨著中東衝突不斷升級和美聯儲的鷹派政策，迄今為止支持比特幣上漲的基本面實際上正在減弱。”

Conclusion

結論

The Bitcoin halving has brought forth a complex and uncertain market environment, characterized by extreme volatility, geopolitical tensions, and shifting Federal Reserve policy. While the halving may provide a temporary boost to Bitcoin's price, traders are advised to remain cautious and monitor both fundamental and technical factors closely.

比特幣減半帶來了複雜且不確定的市場環境，其特徵是極度波動、地緣政治緊張和聯準會政策變化。雖然減半可能會暫時提振比特幣的價格，但建議交易者保持謹慎並密切監控基本面和技術因素。

Disclaimer

免責聲明

This article should not be construed as financial advice. It represents the views and opinions of the author based on available information. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.

本文不應被視為財務建議。它代表作者基於現有資訊的觀點和意見。我們鼓勵讀者在做出任何投資決定之前進行自己的研究和盡職調查。