比特币减半：承诺降低，稳定性？

一个伟大的思想家曾经说过，走路，一个人发现了道路。使用加密货币，什么都没有固定。加密市场遵循其自己的规则

A great thinker once said that by walking, one discovers the way. In the ever-evolving domain of cryptocurrencies, nothing is ever truly fixed. The crypto market follows its own rules, often ephemeral and sometimes unpredictable. The certainties of yesterday become the doubts of today.

一个伟大的思想家曾经说过，走路，一个人发现了道路。在不断发展的加密货币领域中，从来没有真正固定的。加密市场遵循其自己的规则，通常是短暂的，有时是不可预测的。昨天的确定性成为今天的疑问。

Amid geopolitical changes, economic cycles, technological breakthroughs, and tweets that shake the Nasdaq, everything can change… or remain desperately the same. But if historical benchmarks wobble, can we still believe in the four-year cycle?

在地缘政治变化，经济周期，技术突破和推文中摇晃纳斯达克的推文，一切都会改变……或迫切地保持相同。但是，如果历史基准摆动，我们仍然可以相信四年的周期吗？

Bitcoin Halving: promises down, stability up?

比特币减半：承诺降低，稳定性？

The promises of Bitcoin halving have long resonated like a prophecy in the crypto world. Every four years, the miners’ reward is halved. This newfound rarity, meant to support the BTC price, has often preceded a bull market.

比特币减半的承诺长期以来一直像加密世界中的预言一样引起共鸣。每四年，矿工的奖励减半。这种新发现的稀有性，旨在支持BTC价格，通常是在牛市之前。

But according to Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon, this model is starting to tire. He claims that “market corrections have become less brutal, around 30 to 40%,” far from the -90% of previous cycles. According to him, the rise of institutional players and the maturation of the crypto market contribute to this stabilization.

但是，根据多边形联合创始人Sandeep Nailwal的说法，该模型开始疲倦。他声称“市场更正变得不那么残酷，约30％至40％远远远远远远远离以前的周期的-90％。据他说，机构参与者的兴起和加密市场的成熟有助于这种稳定。

We are witnessing less roller coasters and more of a winding path, sprinkled with gentle slopes and unexpected turns.

我们目睹了较少的滚筒杯架，而更多的是蜿蜒的道路，散布着柔和的斜坡和意外的转弯。

Can we then talk about the end of a cycle or simply a cycle in mutation?

然后，我们可以谈论一个周期的结束或简单的突变周期吗？

Analysts debate: is the crypto cycle broken or just muddled?

分析师的辩论：加密循环是破坏还是陷入混乱？

For some analysts, the 4-year cycle still has a lot to offer. The platform Crypto.com reminds us of the four classic phases: accumulation, rise, distribution, fall. This scheme has worked well in past Bitcoin cycles. However, some voices are rising to nuance this. Analyst Miles Deutscher, for example, thinks that bull markets are now more spread out. Accumulation does not always lead to an immediate rise.

对于某些分析师而言，四年周期仍然可以提供很多。平台Crypto.com使我们想起了四个经典阶段：积累，上升，分销，跌倒。该方案在过去的比特币周期中运作良好。但是，有些声音逐渐增加。例如，分析师Miles Deutscher认为，牛市现在更加分散。积累并不总是会立即增加。

He also notes that flows first head towards BTC, then towards Ethereum, and finally towards altcoins, following a progressively desynchronized rotation. This weakens the idea of a regular cycle.

他还指出，随着逐渐变形的旋转，首先流向BTC，然后朝以太坊，最后向山寨币流向Altcoins。这削弱了常规周期的想法。

Other experts mention a crossroads. The Bitcoin halving rally is no longer as mechanical as it used to be. Several parameters are muddling the waters: persistent inflation, high interest rates, institutional adoption, financial derivatives. Even the BTC dominance data shows a stronger concentration of capital on just a few assets.

其他专家提到十字路口。比特币减半集会不再像以前那样机械。几个参数使水域混乱：持续的通货膨胀，高利率，机构采用，金融衍生品。甚至BTC的优势数据也显示出仅在少数资产上的资本集中度更高。

Consequently, the classic crypto cycle no longer seems as readable. But is it the natural evolution of a growing market or the sign of a deep disruption?

因此，经典的加密循环似乎不再可读。但是，这是不断增长的市场的自然演变还是严重破坏的迹象？

Perspectives: adapt your benchmarks to a changing crypto market

观点：将您的基准测试适应不断变化的加密货币市场

It is clear that the crypto market of 2025 is no longer that of 2013 or even 2017. The entry of institutional investors has changed the game. Derivative products, such as Bitcoin ETFs, now weigh heavily on price dynamics. The collective euphoria has given way to calculated caution.

显然，2025年的加密货币市场不再是2013年甚至2017年。机构投资者的进入已经改变了游戏。诸如比特币ETF之类的衍生产品现在在价格动态上重大影响。集体欣喜已取而代之的是谨慎。

Moreover, macroeconomic conditions do not facilitate the emergence of a classic bull market. Rates remain high, liquidity remains low, and the United States is watching. Yet, volumes are not collapsing. BTC holds steady, anchored around $84,000 these past few days. The bear market has not disappeared, but it seems less fierce.

此外，宏观经济状况并不能促进经典牛市的出现。费率保持较高，流动性仍然很低，美国正在观看。然而，卷不会崩溃。在过去的几天中，BTC保持稳定，固定在84,000美元左右。熊市尚未消失，但似乎不那么凶猛。

On X, Miles Deutscher encapsulates this sentiment well:

在X上，Miles Deutscher很好地封装了这种观点：

The cycle is not dead, it has become more jumbled

周期没有死，它变得更加混乱

Maybe that's the reality of the crypto game today - a treasure hunt where the markers are disappearing one by one. The market is changing, but how do you navigate when the old models no longer work?output

也许这就是当今加密游戏的现实 - 一个寻宝活动，标记正在一个人消失。市场正在发生变化，但是当旧型号不再工作时，您如何导航？