比特幣減半：承諾降低，穩定性？

一個偉大的思想家曾經說過，走路，一個人發現了道路。使用加密貨幣，什麼都沒有固定。加密市場遵循其自己的規則

A great thinker once said that by walking, one discovers the way. In the ever-evolving domain of cryptocurrencies, nothing is ever truly fixed. The crypto market follows its own rules, often ephemeral and sometimes unpredictable. The certainties of yesterday become the doubts of today.

一個偉大的思想家曾經說過，走路，一個人發現了道路。在不斷發展的加密貨幣領域中，從來沒有真正固定的。加密市場遵循其自己的規則，通常是短暫的，有時是不可預測的。昨天的確定性成為今天的疑問。

Amid geopolitical changes, economic cycles, technological breakthroughs, and tweets that shake the Nasdaq, everything can change… or remain desperately the same. But if historical benchmarks wobble, can we still believe in the four-year cycle?

在地緣政治變化，經濟周期，技術突破和推文中搖晃納斯達克的推文，一切都會改變……或迫切地保持相同。但是，如果歷史基準擺動，我們仍然可以相信四年的周期嗎？

Bitcoin Halving: promises down, stability up?

比特幣減半：承諾降低，穩定性？

The promises of Bitcoin halving have long resonated like a prophecy in the crypto world. Every four years, the miners’ reward is halved. This newfound rarity, meant to support the BTC price, has often preceded a bull market.

比特幣減半的承諾長期以來一直像加密世界中的預言一樣引起共鳴。每四年，礦工的獎勵減半。這種新發現的稀有性，旨在支持BTC價格，通常是在牛市之前。

But according to Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon, this model is starting to tire. He claims that “market corrections have become less brutal, around 30 to 40%,” far from the -90% of previous cycles. According to him, the rise of institutional players and the maturation of the crypto market contribute to this stabilization.

但是，根據多邊形聯合創始人Sandeep Nailwal的說法，該模型開始疲倦。他聲稱“市場更正變得不那麼殘酷，約30％至40％遠遠遠遠遠遠遠離以前的周期的-90％。據他說，機構參與者的興起和加密市場的成熟有助於這種穩定。

We are witnessing less roller coasters and more of a winding path, sprinkled with gentle slopes and unexpected turns.

我們目睹了較少的滾筒杯架，而更多的是蜿蜒的道路，散佈著柔和的斜坡和意外的轉彎。

Can we then talk about the end of a cycle or simply a cycle in mutation?

然後，我們可以談論一個週期的結束或簡單的突變週期嗎？

Analysts debate: is the crypto cycle broken or just muddled?

分析師的辯論：加密循環是破壞還是陷入混亂？

For some analysts, the 4-year cycle still has a lot to offer. The platform Crypto.com reminds us of the four classic phases: accumulation, rise, distribution, fall. This scheme has worked well in past Bitcoin cycles. However, some voices are rising to nuance this. Analyst Miles Deutscher, for example, thinks that bull markets are now more spread out. Accumulation does not always lead to an immediate rise.

對於某些分析師而言，四年周期仍然可以提供很多。平台Crypto.com使我們想起了四個經典階段：積累，上升，分銷，跌倒。該方案在過去的比特幣週期中運作良好。但是，有些聲音逐漸增加。例如，分析師Miles Deutscher認為，牛市現在更加分散。積累並不總是會立即增加。

He also notes that flows first head towards BTC, then towards Ethereum, and finally towards altcoins, following a progressively desynchronized rotation. This weakens the idea of a regular cycle.

他還指出，隨著逐漸變形的旋轉，首先流向BTC，然後朝以太坊，最後向山寨幣流向Altcoins。這削弱了常規週期的想法。

Other experts mention a crossroads. The Bitcoin halving rally is no longer as mechanical as it used to be. Several parameters are muddling the waters: persistent inflation, high interest rates, institutional adoption, financial derivatives. Even the BTC dominance data shows a stronger concentration of capital on just a few assets.

其他專家提到十字路口。比特幣減半集會不再像以前那樣機械。幾個參數使水域混亂：持續的通貨膨脹，高利率，機構採用，金融衍生品。甚至BTC的優勢數據也顯示出僅在少數資產上的資本集中度更高。

Consequently, the classic crypto cycle no longer seems as readable. But is it the natural evolution of a growing market or the sign of a deep disruption?

因此，經典的加密循環似乎不再可讀。但是，這是不斷增長的市場的自然演變還是嚴重破壞的跡象？

Perspectives: adapt your benchmarks to a changing crypto market

觀點：將您的基準測試適應不斷變化的加密貨幣市場

It is clear that the crypto market of 2025 is no longer that of 2013 or even 2017. The entry of institutional investors has changed the game. Derivative products, such as Bitcoin ETFs, now weigh heavily on price dynamics. The collective euphoria has given way to calculated caution.

顯然，2025年的加密貨幣市場不再是2013年甚至2017年。機構投資者的進入已經改變了遊戲。諸如比特幣ETF之類的衍生產品現在在價格動態上重大影響。集體欣喜已取而代之的是謹慎。

Moreover, macroeconomic conditions do not facilitate the emergence of a classic bull market. Rates remain high, liquidity remains low, and the United States is watching. Yet, volumes are not collapsing. BTC holds steady, anchored around $84,000 these past few days. The bear market has not disappeared, but it seems less fierce.

此外，宏觀經濟狀況並不能促進經典牛市的出現。費率保持較高，流動性仍然很低，美國正在觀看。然而，卷不會崩潰。在過去的幾天中，BTC保持穩定，固定在84,000美元左右。熊市尚未消失，但似乎不那麼兇猛。

On X, Miles Deutscher encapsulates this sentiment well:

在X上，Miles Deutscher很好地封裝了這種觀點：

The cycle is not dead, it has become more jumbled

週期沒有死，它變得更加混亂

Maybe that's the reality of the crypto game today - a treasure hunt where the markers are disappearing one by one. The market is changing, but how do you navigate when the old models no longer work?output

也許這就是當今加密遊戲的現實 - 一個尋寶活動，標記正在一個人消失。市場正在發生變化，但是當舊型號不再工作時，您如何導航？