比特币减半迫在眉睫：深入研究比特币供应减少

比特币减半是指进入流通的新比特币数量减少一半，这是加密货币世界中的一个重大事件。它历来引发了比特币爱好者的期待，他们猜测其对价格和需求的潜在影响。然而，随着4月19日减半的临近，对于其意义以及是否已被市场“定价”，看法存在很大分歧。一些专家认为，供应减少将推高价格，而另一些专家则认为，这一事件已经在预料之中，可能不会像过去那样产生那么大的影响。本专家意见综述提供了对 2024 年比特币减半的潜在结果和影响的见解。

The Bitcoin Halving: A Deep Dive into the Impending Reduction of BTC Supply

比特币减半：深入探讨即将到来的比特币供应减少

On April 19, 2024, or whenever Bitcoin miner extracts block number 840,000, the daily issuance of Bitcoin (BTC) will undergo a significant change, halving from approximately 900 to a mere 450. This event, commonly referred to as "the halving," is a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin ecosystem and holds immense significance for the cryptocurrency's future.

2024 年 4 月 19 日，或者每当比特币矿工提取出第 840,000 个区块时，比特币 (BTC) 的每日发行量将发生重大变化，从约 900 个减半至仅仅 450 个。这一事件通常称为“减半”，这是比特币生态系统的关键时刻，对加密货币的未来具有巨大意义。

The halving serves multiple purposes, the most prominent being its role in controlling the supply of Bitcoin. With a finite supply of 21 million, Bitcoin's scarcity is a fundamental aspect of its design. The halving mechanism ensures that the inflow of new Bitcoins is gradually reduced over time, thereby preserving the asset's value.

减半有多种目的，最突出的是它在控制比特币供应方面的作用。比特币的供应量有限，为 2100 万枚，其稀缺性是其设计的一个基本方面。减半机制确保新比特币的流入随着时间的推移逐渐减少，从而保持资产的价值。

Furthermore, the halving creates a sense of anticipation and excitement within the Bitcoin community. It serves as a quadrennial market moment that draws attention to the cryptocurrency and its underlying technology. As the halving approaches, various stakeholders engage in discussions and debates, analyzing its potential impact on the market and the industry as a whole.

此外，减半在比特币社区内引发了一种期待和兴奋的感觉。它是一个四年一度的市场时刻，吸引了人们对加密货币及其基础技术的关注。随着减半的临近，各利益相关者纷纷展开讨论和辩论，分析其对市场和整个行业的潜在影响。

In order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the upcoming halving and its implications, CoinDesk reached out to a diverse group of experts, from industry leaders to renowned economists and academics. Their insights provide valuable perspectives on the key questions surrounding this highly anticipated event.

为了全面了解即将到来的减半及其影响，CoinDesk 联系了不同的专家群体，从行业领袖到著名的经济学家和学者。他们的见解为围绕这一备受期待的活动的关键问题提供了宝贵的观点。

Is the Halving Priced In?

减半是否已计入价格？

The question of whether the halving is "priced in" is a central topic of debate among market participants. Some argue that the reduction in supply has already been factored into the current market price, while others believe that the halving will trigger a surge in demand, leading to a price increase.

减半是否已被“定价”的问题是市场参与者争论的中心话题。一些人认为，供应量的减少已经反映在当前的市场价格中，而另一些人则认为，减半将引发需求激增，导致价格上涨。

Arguments for Pricing:

定价论据：

• Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly Capital: He maintains that the halving is inherent to Bitcoin's deflationary nature and has been priced in since the cryptocurrency's inception.
• Austin Campbell, Assistant Professor at Columbia Business School: As Bitcoin becomes more integrated into traditional finance, he suggests that events like the halving will diminish in their impact on price fluctuations.
• Azeem Khan, Co-Founder of Morph: He observes that institutional investors have been accumulating Bitcoin in anticipation of the halving, indicating that its impact may already be reflected in the market.

Arguments Against Pricing:

蜻蜓资本 (Dragonfly Capital) 执行合伙人 Haseeb Qureshi：他认为减半是比特币固有的通货紧缩性质，并且自加密货币诞生以来就已经被定价。 哥伦比亚商学院助理教授奥斯汀·坎贝尔 (Austin Campbell)：随着比特币越来越多地融入传统金融，他表明减半等事件对价格波动的影响将会减弱。 Morph 联合创始人 Azeem Khan：他观察到机构投资者一直在囤积比特币以预期减半，这表明其影响可能已经反映在市场上.反对定价的论点：

• Edan Yago, Founder of Sovryn: He asserts that the halving is not priced in and that it will stimulate demand for Bitcoin due to the introduction of new assets like Runes and the enhanced scalability and programmability brought by Bitcoin Rollups.
• Ogle, Founder of Glue: He believes that the halving, combined with increased demand from ETFs, will create a bullish environment. He suggests that the ETF inflows, particularly those from retail investors, will significantly bolster Bitcoin's price.
• Uncle Rockstar Developer, Core Contributor to BTCPay: Based on historical data, he confidently predicts a significant increase in the BTC/USD price following the halving.

This Time It's Different

Sovryn 创始人 Edan Yago：他断言减半并未被定价，并且由于 Runes 等新资产的引入以及 Bitcoin Rollups 带来的增强的可扩展性和可编程性，减半将刺激对比特币的需求。 Glue 创始人 Ogle：他认为，减半加上 ETF 需求的增加，将创造一个看涨环境。他表示，ETF流入，尤其是来自散户的流入，将显着提振比特币价格。Rockstar开发者大叔、BTCPay核心贡献者：根据历史数据，他自信地预测减半后BTC/美元价格将大幅上涨。时间不一样了

Some commentators argue that the upcoming halving carries unique characteristics that distinguish it from previous halving events.

一些评论员认为，即将到来的减半具有与之前的减半事件不同的独特特征。

• Ed Hindi, Chief Investment Officer at Tyr Capital: He highlights the increased institutional demand for Bitcoin and the growth of the ETF market as factors that could lead to a different outcome this time around.
• Kadan Stadelmann, Chief Technology Officer of Komodo Platform: He emphasizes the surge in institutional investment, particularly the significant holdings of publicly traded companies and ETFs, which he believes will impact the supply-demand dynamics.
• Adam Blumberg, Co-Founder of Interaxis: He expects the halving to influence the price due to increased demand from ETF investors, Bitcoin holders, and corporations, coupled with a reduction in new supply. He also anticipates an impact on miners due to decreased profit margins.

Impact on Mining

Tyr Capital 首席投资官 Ed Hindi：他强调机构对比特币需求的增加和 ETF 市场的增长是可能导致这次不同结果的因素。Komodo 平台首席技术官 Kadan Stadelmann：他强调机构投资激增，尤其是公开交易公司和 ETF 的大量持有，他认为这将影响供需动态。 Interaxis 联合创始人 Adam Blumberg：他预计减半将影响价格，因为需求增加ETF 投资者、比特币持有者和企业，加上新增供应量的减少。他还预计，由于利润率下降，矿商也会受到影响。 对采矿业的影响

The halving has direct implications for Bitcoin miners, who rely on block rewards as their primary source of revenue.

减半对比特币矿工有直接影响，他们依靠区块奖励作为主要收入来源。

• Colin Harper, Researcher and Writer for Luxor Technology's Hashrate Index: He suggests that the halving may result in an unprecedented scenario where network hashrate remains stable or experiences a minimal decline due to the introduction of Rune's fungible token protocol, which could improve transaction fees and maintain mining profitability.
• Joe Downie, Chief Marketing Officer at NiceHash: He predicts that the halving will lead to less volatility than previous ones due to the increased stability of the Bitcoin mining industry and the wider adoption of the cryptocurrency.
• Troy Cross, Professor of Philosophy at Reed College: He expresses concerns about the potential impact on mining operations, particularly for those with higher operating costs, but acknowledges the flexibility and adaptability of Bitcoin miners.

Adoption and Beyond

Luxor Technology 算力指数研究员兼撰稿人 Colin Harper：他认为，减半可能会导致前所未有的情况，即网络算力保持稳定或由于 Rune 可替代代币协议的引入而出现最小下降，这可能会提高交易费用并维持NiceHash 首席营销官 Joe Downie：他预测，由于比特币挖矿业的稳定性增强以及加密货币的广泛采用，减半将导致比之前的波动性更小。 Troy Cross，哲学教授里德学院：他对采矿作业的潜在影响表示担忧，特别是对于那些运营成本较高的采矿作业，但承认比特币矿工的灵活性和适应性。采用及其他

The halving also has implications for Bitcoin's adoption and its broader significance within the financial landscape.

减半还对比特币的采用及其在金融领域的更广泛意义产生影响。

• Peter Todd, Founder of OpenTimestamps and Bitcoin Core Developer: While acknowledging the potential risks associated with the halving, he remains cautiously optimistic about its potential impact.
• Zooko Wilcox, Founder of Zcash: He emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin's fixed supply limit and its ability to resist market manipulation, contrasting it with the volatility of other cryptocurrencies.
• Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital: He sees the halving as a narrative event that draws attention to Bitcoin's scarcity and its long-term value proposition.
• Tatiana Koffman, General Partner at Moonwalker Capital: She highlights the halving's impact on Bitcoin's energy input and mining difficulty, which she believes contributes to the cryptocurrency's higher baseline price.
• Bradley Rettler, Philosophy Professor at the University of Wyoming: He emphasizes the psychological impact of the halving, which he sees as a way to attract attention and reinforce the rules governing Bitcoin.
• Anil Lulla, Co-Founder of Delphi Digital: He views the halving as a marketing event that generates excitement and draws attention to Bitcoin's ecosystem and its recent innovations.
• Burak Tamac, Adjunct Professor at Montclair State University: He credits the halving with reducing barriers to Bitcoin adoption by simplifying the concept, highlighting its contrast with fiat money, and making it easier to explain.

Institutional Interest

OpenTimestamps 创始人兼比特币核心开发者 Peter Todd：虽然承认减半带来的潜在风险，但他对其潜在影响仍持谨慎乐观态度。 Zcash 创始人 Zooko Wilcox：他强调了比特币固定供应限制及其能力的重要性。抵制市场操纵，并将其与其他加密货币的波动性进行对比。 Galaxy Digital 研究主管 Alex Thorn：他将减半视为一个叙事事件，引起人们对比特币稀缺性及其长期价值主张的关注。 Tatiana Koffman，普通合伙人Moonwalker Capital：她强调了减半对比特币能源投入和挖矿难度的影响，她认为这导致了加密货币基准价格的上涨。 怀俄明大学哲学教授 Bradley Rettler：他强调了减半的心理影响，他认为这会导致比特币价格上涨。认为这是吸引注意力和加强比特币管理规则的一种方式。德尔福数字联合创始人阿尼尔·卢拉(Anil Lulla)：他将减半视为一种营销活动，可以激发人们的兴奋感，并引起人们对比特币生态系统及其最新创新的关注。布拉克·塔马克(Burak Tamac)，兼职蒙特克莱尔州立大学教授：他认为减半通过简化概念、强调其与法定货币的对比并使其更容易解释，减少了比特币采用的障碍。 机构利益

The growing institutional interest in Bitcoin is expected to play a significant role in the upcoming halving.

机构对比特币日益增长的兴趣预计将在即将到来的减半中发挥重要作用。

• David Zane Morris, Editor of the Dark Markets Newsletter: He anticipates a price increase following the halving, largely attributed to the new ETFs and the influx of new investors.
• James Wester, Tech Analyst at Javelin Strategy: He highlights the uncertainty surrounding the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on demand but remains optimistic about the long-term price trajectory based on continued institutional interest.
• Aubrey Strobel, Advisor to Trust Machines: He points to the rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs and the significant investments from major asset managers, suggesting that the demand-supply dynamics will favor a price increase.

Critics and Skeptics

David Zane Morris，《黑市通讯》编辑：他预计减半后价格会上涨，这主要归因于新的 ETF 和新投资者的涌入。 Javelin Strategy 技术分析师 James Wester：他强调了减半影响的不确定性比特币 ETF 随需应变，但基于持续的机构兴趣，对长期价格轨迹仍持乐观态度。 Trust Machines 顾问 Aubrey Strobel：他指出比特币 ETF 的快速增长以及主要资产管理公司的大量投资，表明需求-供应动态将有利于价格上涨。批评者和怀疑者

Despite the generally positive outlook, some critics raise concerns and offer alternative perspectives.

尽管前景总体乐观，但一些批评者提出了担忧并提出了不同的观点。

• Molly White, Author of the Citation Needed Newsletter: She cautions against over-reliance on past performance as a predictor of future results and advises investors to exercise caution in their expectations.
• Gwern, Polymath: He expresses a lack of excitement or interest in Bitcoin, dismissing the halving as an outdated concept.
• Bennett Tomlin, Head of Research at Protos: He emphasizes the halving's role in reducing energy waste and forcing poorly run Bitcoin miners to face the economic challenges of their businesses.
• Bitfinex'ed, Tether Critic: He dismisses the significance of events in dictating price movements in the cryptocurrency market, claiming that prices are manipulated by entities like Tether.

In conclusion, the upcoming Bitcoin halving is a highly anticipated event that has the potential to significantly impact the cryptocurrency's price, adoption, and overall trajectory. While there is no consensus on whether the halving is "priced in," a diverse range of experts provide valuable insights and perspectives on its potential implications. The event serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's unique characteristics and its role as a digital asset with a limited supply, generating both excitement and speculation within the global cryptocurrency community.

Molly White，Citation Needed Newsletter 的作者：她警告不要过度依赖过去的表现来预测未来的结果，并建议投资者在预期中保持谨慎。Gwern，Polymath：他表示对比特币缺乏兴奋或兴趣，认为减半是一个过时的概念。Protos 研究主管 Bennett Tomlin：他强调减半在减少能源浪费和迫使经营不善的比特币矿工面对其业务的经济挑战方面的作用。Bitfinex'ed，Tether 评论家：他不屑一顾事件在决定加密货币市场价格走势方面的重要性，声称价格是由 Tether 等实体操纵的。 总之，即将到来的比特币减半是一个备受期待的事件，有可能对加密货币的价格、采用和整体产生重大影响弹道。尽管对于减半是否已被“定价”尚未达成共识，但各类专家就其潜在影响提供了宝贵的见解和观点。该活动提醒人们比特币的独特特征及其作为供应有限的数字资产的作用，在全球加密货币社区中引起兴奋和猜测。