比特幣減半迫在眉睫：深入研究比特幣供應減少

比特幣減半是指進入流通的新比特幣數量減少一半，這是加密貨幣世界中的重大事件。它歷來引發了比特幣愛好者的期待，他們猜測其對價格和需求的潛在影響。然而，隨著4月19日減半的臨近，對於其意義以及是否已被市場“定價”，看法存在很大分歧。一些專家認為，供應減少將推高價格，而另一些專家則認為，這一事件已經在預料之中，可能不會像過去那樣產生那麼大的影響。本專家意見綜述提供了 2024 年比特幣減半的潛在結果和影響的見解。

The Bitcoin Halving: A Deep Dive into the Impending Reduction of BTC Supply

比特幣減半：深入探討即將到來的比特幣供應減少

On April 19, 2024, or whenever Bitcoin miner extracts block number 840,000, the daily issuance of Bitcoin (BTC) will undergo a significant change, halving from approximately 900 to a mere 450. This event, commonly referred to as "the halving," is a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin ecosystem and holds immense significance for the cryptocurrency's future.

2024 年4 月19 日，或每當比特幣礦工提取出第840,000 個區塊時，比特幣(BTC) 的每日發行量將發生重大變化，從約900 個減半至僅450 個。事件通常稱為“減半”，這是比特幣生態系統的關鍵時刻，對加密貨幣的未來具有巨大意義。

The halving serves multiple purposes, the most prominent being its role in controlling the supply of Bitcoin. With a finite supply of 21 million, Bitcoin's scarcity is a fundamental aspect of its design. The halving mechanism ensures that the inflow of new Bitcoins is gradually reduced over time, thereby preserving the asset's value.

減半有多種目的，最突出的是它在控制比特幣供應方面的作用。比特幣的供應量有限，為 2,100 萬枚，其稀缺性是其設計的基本面向。減半機制確保新比特幣的流入隨著時間的推移逐漸減少，從而維持資產的價值。

Furthermore, the halving creates a sense of anticipation and excitement within the Bitcoin community. It serves as a quadrennial market moment that draws attention to the cryptocurrency and its underlying technology. As the halving approaches, various stakeholders engage in discussions and debates, analyzing its potential impact on the market and the industry as a whole.

此外，減半在比特幣社群內引發了一種期待和興奮的感覺。它是一個四年一度的市場時刻，吸引了人們對加密貨幣及其基礎技術的關注。隨著減半的臨近，各利益相關者紛紛展開討論和辯論，分析其對市場和整個行業的潛在影響。

In order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the upcoming halving and its implications, CoinDesk reached out to a diverse group of experts, from industry leaders to renowned economists and academics. Their insights provide valuable perspectives on the key questions surrounding this highly anticipated event.

為了全面了解即將到來的減半及其影響，CoinDesk 聯繫了不同的專家群體，從產業領袖到著名的經濟學家和學者。他們的見解為圍繞這一備受期待的活動的關鍵問題提供了寶貴的觀點。

Is the Halving Priced In?

減半是否已計入價格？

The question of whether the halving is "priced in" is a central topic of debate among market participants. Some argue that the reduction in supply has already been factored into the current market price, while others believe that the halving will trigger a surge in demand, leading to a price increase.

減半是否已被「定價」的問題是市場參與者爭論的中心話題。有些人認為，供應量的減少已經反映在當前的市場價格中，而其他人則認為，減半將引發需求激增，導致價格上漲。

Arguments for Pricing:

定價論點：

• Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly Capital: He maintains that the halving is inherent to Bitcoin's deflationary nature and has been priced in since the cryptocurrency's inception.
• Austin Campbell, Assistant Professor at Columbia Business School: As Bitcoin becomes more integrated into traditional finance, he suggests that events like the halving will diminish in their impact on price fluctuations.
• Azeem Khan, Co-Founder of Morph: He observes that institutional investors have been accumulating Bitcoin in anticipation of the halving, indicating that its impact may already be reflected in the market.

Arguments Against Pricing:

蜻蜓資本(Dragonfly Capital) 執行合夥人Haseeb Qureshi：他認為減半是比特幣固有的通貨緊縮性質，並且自加密貨幣誕生以來就已經被定價。著比特幣越來越多地融入傳統金融，他表明減半等事件對價格波動的影響將會減弱。這表明其影響可能已經反映在市場上。反對定價的論點：

• Edan Yago, Founder of Sovryn: He asserts that the halving is not priced in and that it will stimulate demand for Bitcoin due to the introduction of new assets like Runes and the enhanced scalability and programmability brought by Bitcoin Rollups.
• Ogle, Founder of Glue: He believes that the halving, combined with increased demand from ETFs, will create a bullish environment. He suggests that the ETF inflows, particularly those from retail investors, will significantly bolster Bitcoin's price.
• Uncle Rockstar Developer, Core Contributor to BTCPay: Based on historical data, he confidently predicts a significant increase in the BTC/USD price following the halving.

This Time It's Different

Sovryn 創辦人Edan Yago：他斷言減半並未被定價，並且由於Runes 等新資產的引入以及Bitcoin Rollups 帶來的增強的可擴展性和可編程性，減半將刺激對比特幣的需求。創辦人Ogle：他認為，減半加上 ETF 需求的增加，將創造一個看漲環境。他表示，ETF流入，尤其是來自散戶的流入，將顯著提振比特幣價格。 。

Some commentators argue that the upcoming halving carries unique characteristics that distinguish it from previous halving events.

一些評論員認為，即將到來的減半具有與先前的減半事件不同的獨特特徵。

• Ed Hindi, Chief Investment Officer at Tyr Capital: He highlights the increased institutional demand for Bitcoin and the growth of the ETF market as factors that could lead to a different outcome this time around.
• Kadan Stadelmann, Chief Technology Officer of Komodo Platform: He emphasizes the surge in institutional investment, particularly the significant holdings of publicly traded companies and ETFs, which he believes will impact the supply-demand dynamics.
• Adam Blumberg, Co-Founder of Interaxis: He expects the halving to influence the price due to increased demand from ETF investors, Bitcoin holders, and corporations, coupled with a reduction in new supply. He also anticipates an impact on miners due to decreased profit margins.

Impact on Mining

Tyr Capital 首席投資長 Ed Hindi：他強調機構對比特幣需求的增加和 ETF 市場的成長是可能導致這次不同結果的因素。公司和ETF 的大量持有，他認為這將影響供需動態。供應量的減少。他也預計，由於利潤率下降，礦商也會受到影響。

The halving has direct implications for Bitcoin miners, who rely on block rewards as their primary source of revenue.

減半對比特幣礦工有直接影響，他們依賴區塊獎勵作為主要收入來源。

• Colin Harper, Researcher and Writer for Luxor Technology's Hashrate Index: He suggests that the halving may result in an unprecedented scenario where network hashrate remains stable or experiences a minimal decline due to the introduction of Rune's fungible token protocol, which could improve transaction fees and maintain mining profitability.
• Joe Downie, Chief Marketing Officer at NiceHash: He predicts that the halving will lead to less volatility than previous ones due to the increased stability of the Bitcoin mining industry and the wider adoption of the cryptocurrency.
• Troy Cross, Professor of Philosophy at Reed College: He expresses concerns about the potential impact on mining operations, particularly for those with higher operating costs, but acknowledges the flexibility and adaptability of Bitcoin miners.

Adoption and Beyond

Luxor Technology 算力指數研究員兼撰稿人Colin Harper：他認為，減半可能會導致前所未有的情況，即網絡算力保持穩定或由於Rune 可替代代幣協議的引入而出現最小下降，這可能會提高交易費用並維持NiceHash 首席行銷長 Joe Downie：他預測，由於比特幣挖礦業的穩定性增強以及加密貨幣的廣泛採用，減半將導致比之前的波動性更小。 ：他對採礦作業的潛在影響表示擔憂，特別是對於那些運營成本較高的採礦作業，但承認比特幣礦工的靈活性和適應性。

The halving also has implications for Bitcoin's adoption and its broader significance within the financial landscape.

減半也對比特幣的採用及其在金融領域的更廣泛意義產生影響。

• Peter Todd, Founder of OpenTimestamps and Bitcoin Core Developer: While acknowledging the potential risks associated with the halving, he remains cautiously optimistic about its potential impact.
• Zooko Wilcox, Founder of Zcash: He emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin's fixed supply limit and its ability to resist market manipulation, contrasting it with the volatility of other cryptocurrencies.
• Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital: He sees the halving as a narrative event that draws attention to Bitcoin's scarcity and its long-term value proposition.
• Tatiana Koffman, General Partner at Moonwalker Capital: She highlights the halving's impact on Bitcoin's energy input and mining difficulty, which she believes contributes to the cryptocurrency's higher baseline price.
• Bradley Rettler, Philosophy Professor at the University of Wyoming: He emphasizes the psychological impact of the halving, which he sees as a way to attract attention and reinforce the rules governing Bitcoin.
• Anil Lulla, Co-Founder of Delphi Digital: He views the halving as a marketing event that generates excitement and draws attention to Bitcoin's ecosystem and its recent innovations.
• Burak Tamac, Adjunct Professor at Montclair State University: He credits the halving with reducing barriers to Bitcoin adoption by simplifying the concept, highlighting its contrast with fiat money, and making it easier to explain.

Institutional Interest

OpenTimestamps 創辦人兼比特幣核心開發者Peter Todd：雖然承認減半帶來的潛在風險，但他對其潛在影響仍持謹慎樂觀態度。能力的重要性。主張的關注。強調了減半的心理影響，他認為這會導致比特幣價格上漲。 ：他將減半視為一種行銷活動，可以激發人們的興奮感，並引起人們對比特幣生態系統及其最新創新的關注。 ：他認為減半透過簡化概念、強調其與法定貨幣的對比並使其更容易解釋，減少了比特幣採用的障礙。

The growing institutional interest in Bitcoin is expected to play a significant role in the upcoming halving.

機構對比特幣日益增長的興趣預計將在即將到來的減半中發揮重要作用。

• David Zane Morris, Editor of the Dark Markets Newsletter: He anticipates a price increase following the halving, largely attributed to the new ETFs and the influx of new investors.
• James Wester, Tech Analyst at Javelin Strategy: He highlights the uncertainty surrounding the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on demand but remains optimistic about the long-term price trajectory based on continued institutional interest.
• Aubrey Strobel, Advisor to Trust Machines: He points to the rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs and the significant investments from major asset managers, suggesting that the demand-supply dynamics will favor a price increase.

Critics and Skeptics

David Zane Morris，《黑市通訊》編輯：他預計減半後價格會上漲，這主要歸因於新的ETF 和新投資者的湧入。不確定性比特幣ETF 隨需應變，但基於持續的機構興趣，對長期價格軌跡仍持樂觀態度。需求-供應動態將有利於價格上漲。

Despite the generally positive outlook, some critics raise concerns and offer alternative perspectives.

儘管前景總體樂觀，但一些批評者提出了擔憂並提出了不同的觀點。

• Molly White, Author of the Citation Needed Newsletter: She cautions against over-reliance on past performance as a predictor of future results and advises investors to exercise caution in their expectations.
• Gwern, Polymath: He expresses a lack of excitement or interest in Bitcoin, dismissing the halving as an outdated concept.
• Bennett Tomlin, Head of Research at Protos: He emphasizes the halving's role in reducing energy waste and forcing poorly run Bitcoin miners to face the economic challenges of their businesses.
• Bitfinex'ed, Tether Critic: He dismisses the significance of events in dictating price movements in the cryptocurrency market, claiming that prices are manipulated by entities like Tether.

In conclusion, the upcoming Bitcoin halving is a highly anticipated event that has the potential to significantly impact the cryptocurrency's price, adoption, and overall trajectory. While there is no consensus on whether the halving is "priced in," a diverse range of experts provide valuable insights and perspectives on its potential implications. The event serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's unique characteristics and its role as a digital asset with a limited supply, generating both excitement and speculation within the global cryptocurrency community.

Molly White，Citation Needed Newsletter 的作者：她警告不要過度依賴過去的表現來預測未來的結果，並建議投資者在預期中保持謹慎。是一個過時的概念。顧事件在決定加密貨幣市場價格走勢的重要性，聲稱價格是由Tether 等實體操縱的。和整體產生重大影響彈道。儘管對於減半是否已被「定價」尚未達成共識，但各類專家就其潛在影響提供了寶貴的見解和觀點。該活動提醒人們比特幣的獨特特徵及其作為供應有限的數位資產的作用，在全球加密貨幣社群中引起興奮和猜測。