比特币减半削弱了牛市预期

在比特币第四次减半的预期中，分析师对持续牛市的预期提出警告。与之前的减半不同，矿工奖励的减少可能不是主要的增长动力。相反，焦点转向通过现货 ETF 吸引新投资者，这标志着比特币正在逐渐被主流接受。此次减半发生在未知的高利率领域，分析师强调流动性和需求在决定未来几个月比特币价值的重要性。

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: Tempering Expectations for a Bullish Surge

比特币第四次减半：缓和看涨飙升的预期

As the highly anticipated fourth halving of Bitcoin's block reward approaches, analysts are moderating their expectations for a sustained bull run in the cryptocurrency's price over the subsequent 12-18 months. Unlike previous halving events, which have historically triggered significant price increases, the current outlook is characterized by greater caution.

随着备受期待的比特币区块奖励第四次减半的临近，分析师正在降低对未来 12-18 个月加密货币价格持续牛市的预期。与以往引发价格大幅上涨的减半事件不同，当前的前景更加谨慎。

According to analysts at Kaiko, a Paris-based blockchain firm, the impact of the halving may not be as pronounced as in the past. The halving, which reduces the block reward received by miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, is unlikely to be the primary driver of Bitcoin's growth in the near term.

总部位于巴黎的区块链公司Kaiko的分析师表示，减半的影响可能不会像过去那么明显。减半将矿工获得的区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC，不太可能成为比特币近期增长的主要推动力。

"Bitcoin may have enjoyed substantial returns following its previous halvings, but this latest event comes at a time when the asset class has matured and macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain," noted Kaiko in a recent report.

Kaiko 在最近的一份报告中指出：“比特币在之前的减半之后可能获得了可观的回报，但这一最新事件发生在该资产类别已经成熟且宏观经济状况仍然不确定的时候。”

Instead, analysts believe that the focus will shift towards attracting new investors to Bitcoin, particularly through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and, soon, in Hong Kong. The introduction of these ETFs marks a significant milestone in Bitcoin's journey towards mainstream acceptance within the financial world.

相反，分析师认为，重点将转向吸引新投资者投资比特币，特别是通过美国的现货交易所交易基金（ETF），以及很快在香港的投资。这些 ETF 的推出标志着比特币走向金融界主流接受之路的一个重要里程碑。

Uncharted Territory for Bitcoin

比特币的未知领域

This halving occurs in a unique macroeconomic context, amidst a rising interest rate environment. Analysts highlight the absence of a historical precedent for Bitcoin's long-term trading behavior in such conditions. They emphasize that robust liquidity and increasing demand will play a crucial role in enhancing Bitcoin's value proposition in the coming months.

这次减半发生在独特的宏观经济背景下，即利率上升的环境中。分析师强调，在这种情况下，比特币的长期交易行为尚无历史先例。他们强调，强劲的流动性和不断增长的需求将在未来几个月增强比特币的价值主张方面发挥至关重要的作用。

"While the halving itself may not be the primary catalyst for a sustained bull run, it could contribute to the overall positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin," said Luke Martin, a senior analyst at BNY Mellon's Digital Currency Center. "However, investors should be mindful of the macroeconomic headwinds and avoid making overly speculative bets."

纽约梅隆银行数字货币中心高级分析师卢克·马丁表示：“虽然减半本身可能不是持续牛市的主要催化剂，但它可能有助于提升围绕比特币的整体积极情绪。” “不过，投资者应留意宏观经济的不利因素，避免过度投机。”

It is important to note that the halving is a scheduled event that occurs every four years and is designed to gradually reduce the issuance of new Bitcoins. While it has historically been associated with price increases, it is crucial to approach this halving with a balanced perspective, taking into account the evolving market dynamics and macroeconomic factors.

值得注意的是，减半是每四年发生一次的预定事件，旨在逐渐减少新比特币的发行量。虽然历史上它与价格上涨有关，但以平衡的视角对待这一减半至关重要，同时考虑到不断变化的市场动态和宏观经济因素。